June Forecasts Not Hot

After sifting through the returns from their dealers that supply real time transactional data , Edmunds now projects a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 11.9 million vehicles, for June, just a smidgen higher than May’s 11.8 million. Edmunds sees 1,093,000 new cars change hands, which would be 11.2 percent more than June 2010. A week ago, Edmunds was still hoping for a 12.3 million SAAR, “if the month ends strong.” Looks like it is not ending as strong as hoped.

TrueCar sticks with a forecast of 12.17 million SAAR for June. “Uncertainty in the economy as well as high gas prices and shortages in small car inventory contributed to the limited gains in sales in June. ” said Jesse Toprak of TrueCar.com. Should his 12.17 million prediction not be dead on, Toprak does not expect sales to go below 11.9 million SAAR level. “

Price increases and inventory shortages “have made it more likely for consumers to delay their new car purchases through the early part of the summer,” said Edmunds.com Chief Economist Lacey Plache. “But as prices and inventory return closer to normal levels by September, many of those lost sales can be made up by the end of this year when consumers return to the market.” This could be the chance for the Japanese to recover lost ground.

June Market Share Predictions

As you can see from this table, Toyota and Honda are still reeling from the tsunami-induced effects, while Nissan already has recovered. Who is really picking up sales is Hyundai/Kia.

Edmunds is projecting a 10.2 percent market share for Hyundai and Kia in June, which would be their highest combined market share in history. TrueCar even gives the Koreans 10.7 percent. What does not seem to happen is the wholesale desertion from Japanese to American ranks. Oddly enough, Chrysler picks up the most share, while Ford and GM are generally missing their chance to exploit the logistical weakness of the competition.