By on November 3, 2010

U.S. car sales had peaked in 2000 at 17.4m, and it’s been downhill from there. Especially lately.  This year, we might see between 11 and 12 million in the U.S.  But wait, we might see the +17m again this year. In China.

“Industry experts are now saying China is on path to surpass that record,” reports Gasgoo. And that’s just the beginning.

J. D. Power timidly predicts 2011 sales to reach 18.3m in China, while GM China president, Kevin Wale, recently said sales should top 19 million next year. I say: If China comes in above 17m this year, it will break the 20m barrier next.

Daimler  thinks that China will become their largest market for Mercedes-Benz cars in the next three to five years.

Volkswagen’s Audi said its China sales are expected to exceed German sales next year.

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2 Comments on “Forecasters: China To Beat U.S. World Record This Year...”

  • avatar

    I’d say the number is between 18M and 19M units. And I agree with your prediction for next year.

  • avatar
    Kevin L. Copple

    Yes, the numbers are significant. Still, there’s a bit of apples and oranges here. I’d guess that total cubic inches of engine displacement are higher with sales in the US, plus total passenger/cargo volume being still higher in the US. I see BMW 730’s, BMW 520’s, Audi A6’s with four cyl engines, and a bunch of tiny cars with tiny 1.6 liter engines and smaller. You get more crashworthiness in the US, actual bumpers rather than hollow plastic shells, and a big difference in how much pollution comes out the tailpipe.

    The automotive experience is much different here in China as well. Few people have a garage to park in. There are few drive-thru services available. Parking is often dreadful. Then there are the dangerous roads with rude drivers. I could go on, but I suspect my audience for this post is limited :-)

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