Hammer Time: 15 to 20 is Plenty

I remember when a 15 year old car was as wore out as an old mop. Rust. Electric gremlins. Dark oils and brownish fluids spewing out of nearly every seal and gasket. When the auctions had a car that was nearly old enough to drive itself, it was usually already smoking (out of the tailpipe)… and drinking (it’s own oil and coolant). The jalopies that came from the bad old days of the 1980’s almost always left a puddle of ‘remembrance’ which you had to be careful not to step on when looking at the next elderly statesman. A run of old cars would result in a nice white cloud above everyone’s head and a post-auction headache for yours truly. It was a nasty smelly world not too long ago.. but now…

Old cars are becoming so good that nobody wants the new stuff. The overwhelming number of cars made in the 2000’s can now easily last at least 15 years with ‘average’ care. Think about some of the worst cars made over the past decade. The Chevy Aveo? Sure it’s got enough plastic and low pedigree to make John Edwards and the late Tammy Faye Baker proud. But the thing can easily run past the 200k mark if you simply keep the maintenance up. The late Metro, Cavalier, Neon, and early 2000’s Focus were often synonymous with the acronym POS. But you know what? An awful lot of them are still on the road and enabling their owners to enjoy dirt cheap tranpsort. As basic transportation they hit a quality/cost equilibrum that no new car can equal.

Now I’m sure I ticked off a few of the folks who use these as commuter scooters. So let’s go look at some of the more rare and defunct vehicles still sadly haunting our landscape. The Daewoos of the early 2000’s were so terrible (anyone remember the Daewood Lanos?) that they probably represent the last of the disposable breed. Hyundais? The Elantras and Accents from 10+ years ago are doing surprisingly well. The Kias from that time? Not so much. Certain Saabs, Land Rovers, and anything with the Chrysler 2.7L, Northstar Engine, or a Boxster engine will likely have trouble hitting the 200k mark.

But that composes maybe 3% of the entire auto market at most. Most minivans may require a tranny replacement at some point. Those can hurt but their not fatal. Then you have the differential whines on Jeeps (which most people ignore). The Honda V6’s with auto trannies that perform an expensive hari-kari along with their hybrid CVT transmissions. Certain Toyota engines had engine sludge issues. I can pretty much find a fault or two with every manufacturer. But that still doesn’t change the big picture of car ownership.

It’s getting cheaper. Way cheaper. So much cheaper that I can see a day when the average $3000 car bought by a non-enthusiast will be expected to last another seven years. When we get to that point… you may very well see a lot of public transit systems close up shop. I’m not saying this as a matter of politics or ideology. It’s just the economics of it all. Yes there are a ton of wild cards and black swans to be considered. But ten years of overproduction and cheap credit have yielded an extreme oversupply of cars that can simply endure through the years.