EV News – Ghosn: I Have No Competition; GM's Reuss: Volt Will Give Way To BEVs; DBank: Battery Prices To Plummet
In typical Carlos Ghosn style, the father of the Nissan EV throws down the gauntlet. gm-volt.com quotes him from a talk with reporters:
“Frankly, I mean so far there is no competition. Let’s be serious. It’s not because someone is coming with a prototype and one car that this is competition. The question is how much capacity are you building. What I am sure is that in 2011, I am going to be the only one on the market”.
In that regard, Ghosn has put production capacity where his mouth is with Nissan planning on 500k in global sales by 2012: “The numbers are big,” Ghosn said. As a frame of reference, GM has indicated production of 8k Volts in 2011, and an ability to ramp up to about 50k annually thereafter. Did GM bet on the wrong horse with its smaller battery but range-extending generator equipped Volt? GM NA Prez suggests that might well turn out to be the case.
gm-volt.com founder Lyle Dennis asked Reuss whether BEVs (battery only EV, like Leaf) or EREVs (electric range extending vehicle, like the Volt) would turn out to be more popular:
“Long term demand (for) BEV could be higher…As the technology flows down to BEV in what will be smaller cars to carry smaller packs, that may be the higher volume play over a longer time.”
Deutsche Bank projects that Li-ion battery prices will be dropping faster than previously projected. Automakers are already seeing bids for $400/kwh for large volume EV battery pack contracts. And DB Projects that they will drop by some 25% to 50% over the next 5/10 years, and that performance (power density, etc.) will double in the next seven years. These steeper price declines strongly suggest a more rapid potential for EV market penetration.
It’s looking like the odds for Carlos’ big EV gamble are improving by the day.
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- Theflyersfan UX Hybrid, NX, NX Hybrid, NX Plug-In Hybrid EV, RZ, RX, RX Hybrid, RX 500h, GX, LX, and now the TX. (source: the bloated section of the Lexus SUV site) It's looking like the Taco Bell menu over there - the same dozen ingredients mixed around to make a lineup. I'm waiting for something like the WX to compete with the Chevy Trax and maybe the LXXXL to compete with the Hummer EV and maybe a four row crossover in 2025 and a lower-cased line like the rx or nx to compete with the German CUV-"coupes" and their slashed tops and cargo areas. C'mon Lexus, there are more micro-niches to be filled! Gather your boardroom committees together and come up with another plan! And careless parent alert: shouldn't that kid be in a booster seat? I mean in my age, we sat in the way back of station wagons on the flat floor and bounced around with every curve, but these days you gotta deck your kid out in 50 pounds of pads and bubble wrap before they leave the driveway, so get that child seat in the way back right now!
- 28-Cars-Later Nice minivan, just add the sliding doors and quit living in denial.
- Zerofoo You will own nothing....
- MaintenanceCosts "We’d imagine reliability on the hybrid won't be quite so bulletproof as the unaided V6."Why? Toyota hybrid powertrains are typically indestructible.
- JMII Too late Dodge. After 20 years of Dakota use I went and got a Hyundai Santa Cruz Limited. Great vehicle for 4k miles so far, 700 miles of towing while getting 18 MPG whereas the same boat behind the Dakota could only manage 11. I do welcome more entries in this market. I managed with my Quad Cabs 5 foot bed for decades so the SC's 4 foot bed (same as the Mav and I assume this RAM) is fine, I am not a contractor and don't haul plywood on a daily basis.
I like this. It takes a bit of audacity to make a bet like this. Whether the technology is good or not, we will now be able to see. This is better than just making marketing buzz (it is in some part). Making a gamble is good, someone has to go first.
Hold on, the Leaf is a serial hybrid as well because it can be recharged from power from coal-fueled power plants. What I'm getting at here, is that most electricity comes from some sort of fossil fuel. At least the Volt won't leave you stranded if you get unexpectedly stuck in traffic in severe weather (i.e. really hot or really cold) or try to run a few errands on the way home from work. Volt E-REV is the way to go for now... but long term? Pure battery. But long term as in 10, 20, 30, or more years when you can go 500 miles on a battery charge that costs $500 to build and have less-than-30 minute charging stations within a 10 minute drive of anywhere.