China To Sell 20m Cars In 2015

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

Yesterday, China’s auto production officially exceeded the 10m mark. You’ve seen nothing yet, opined Dongfeng Motor Co. vice president Ren Yong at the sidelines of the Tokyo Motor Show (which had been mostly shunned by foreign makers.) Peak oil theorists, take a Valium before reading further.+

China’s annual auto sales will likely reach 20 million units by 2015, Dongfeng’s VP reckons, as demand will be growing with rising family income.

Auto sales in China are projected to reach 13m units this year. The fourth quarter is likely to see even bigger increases than the sales explosions of the previous months, as the imminent end of a policy that halved the sales tax on mini cars will herd the last of the undecided into the showrooms.

For the first nine months, total sales rose 34 percent to 9.7 million, with passenger-vehicle sales up 42 percent to 7.2m units.

Beginning in January 2009, China eclipsed the USA as the world’s largest auto market. Even if Ren Yong is too optimistic, the ranking will not change anytime soon. The tracking firm CSM Worldwide sees U.S. auto sales at 11.8m units by the end of 2010, about a million shy of China’s current year number. US light vehicle sales had never seen 20m, and most likely won’t ever.

Bertel Schmitt
Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href=""> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href=""> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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  • 97escort 97escort on Oct 22, 2009

    Peak Oil "charlatans" can do name calling too. We call those who think that oil is infinite "cornucopians". Classical economics can not deal with depletion of a finite resource which is not easily replaced by a substitute as in the case with oil. We saw what happens when oil prices rose last year. We are now in the midst of the Great Recession and as we come out of it a little oil is already making new recovery highs around $80. This is the Peak Oil pattern: Oil price increases due to demand followed by demand destruction. Then some recovery, rising oil prices again, and more demand destruction. Rinse and repeat down the backside of the Hubbert Peak Oil curve. The U.S. car companies who have few fuel efficient vehicles to sell have suffered the most. And they will continue to suffer if management continues in its cornucopian view of oil. The Chinese will have a day of reckoning ahead at some point, but for Americans who mostly have the cornucopian view now is our day of reckoning and most are oblivious to what is going on. China is buying up oil reserves as fast as it can while Americans are busy arguing among themselves about obsolete economic theories.

  • Citizen Chin Citizen Chin on Oct 22, 2009

    And I suppose this explains why Pontiac, and not Buick, got the axe. Or so says the conventional wisdom.

  • PeteMoran PeteMoran on Oct 22, 2009

    @ 97escort We call those who think that oil is infinite “cornucopians”. Yes, but the tradition of Head-In-The-Sand has worked so well on so many issues.

  • Unleashed Unleashed on Oct 22, 2009
    We are now in the midst of the Great Recession and as we come out of it... That's news to me. Silly me thinking we're on a verge of an economic collapse.