Grade The Analysts: Caldwell Wins Race Against 15.1 Million

RankAnalyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverall1Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com)-5.0%18.0%32.0%14.44.64%18.15%22.79%2Brian Johnson (Barclays Capital)-3.6%7.1%32.0%14.35.30%20.34%25.64%3Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com)-6.1%14.0%27.0%14.35.30%20.94%26.24%4Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs)-2.6%11.0%26.0%14.35.30%21.44%26.74%5Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)-5.9%13.0%27.0%14.25.96%21.74%27.70%6Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA)-3.9%5.6%25.0%14.53.97%29.14%33.12%7Joseph Spak (RBC)-5.2%8.0%24.0%14.16.62%29.04%35.67%8Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank)-4.0%8.7%22.0%14.16.62%29.14%35.77%9Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book)-5.8%5.6%25.0%13.88.61%31.04%39.65%10Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)-5.6%3.4%22.0%14.16.62%36.04%42.67%11Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)NA NA NA14.35.30%300.00%305.30%12Matthew Stover (Guggenheim) NA NA NA14.35.30%300.00%305.30%13Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan) NA NA NA14.25.96%300.00%305.96%14Itay Michaeli (Citigroup)NA NA NA14.25.96%300.00%305.96%15Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) NA NA NA14.07.28%300.00%307.28%16Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive)NA NA NA14.07.28%300.00%307.28%17George Magliano (IHS Automotive)NA NA NA13.88.61%300.00%308.61%Average-4.8%9.4%26.0%14.2Actual1.1%14.3%40.4%15.1

The strong February was good news for the car industry, bad news for the analysts. Even the most optimistic prognosis could not withstand the mad February rush to buying cars.

February ended with a Seasonally Adjusted Average Rate (SAAR) of 15.1 million, something the world had not seen since carmageddon. Even the most optimistic analyst (and the winner of the February round of Grade The Analysts) would predict only 14.4 million.

Read more
  • Lou_BC Let me see. Humans are fallible. They can be very greedy. Politicians sell to the highest bidder. What could go wrong?
  • SPPPP Vibrant color 9 times out of 10 for me. There may be a few shapes that look just right in metallic gray, for example. There are a few nices ones out there. And I like VW "White Silver". But I'd usually prefer a deep red or a vibrant metallic green. Or a bright blue.
  • 28-Cars-Later Say it ain't so, so reboot #6* isn't going to change anything?[list=1][*]V4-6-8 and High "Tech" 4100.[/*][*]Front wheel drive sooooo modern.[/*][*]NOrthSTARt.[/*][*]Catera wooooo.[/*][*]ATS all the things.[/*][*]We're *are* your daddy's Tesla. [/*][/list=1]
  • MaintenanceCosts Can I have the hybrid powertrains and packaging of the RAV4 Hybrid or Prime with the interior materials, design, and build quality of the Mazda?
  • ToolGuy I have 2 podcasts to listen to before commenting, stop rushing my homework.