#AverageTransactionPrice

Analysts are projecting U.S. light vehicle sales will decline in October as incentives do the same. Could they possibly be related?

While we don’t have have official figures on how much of the domestic population has a limitless supply of cash, our collective intuition suggests most do not. This leads us to believe the elevated cost of owning an automobile has likely impacted deliveries for this month. Fortunately, the experts seem to agree, predicting the lowest October volume since 2014.

New vehicle incentives have been on the decline for a while now. This looks to be the fourth consecutive month without a rebound — which would make it the longest time frame since the recession, according to J.D. Power. That’s not necessarily a bad thing for automakers, since they’re losing less money on every model sold.

Ever since the end of the recession, new car prices have crept up steadily while used vehicle values remained comparably low. In fact, compact cars actually became less expensive between 2013 and 2017 as the crossover craze left a glut of small, economical vehicles that could be purchased for little more than a smile.

Unfortunately, the tide is turning. A sudden influx of end-of-lease vehicles was supposed to continue suppressing used vehicle prices for 2018. However, things have not played out that way. Despite there being so many gently used vehicles saturating dealer lots, average used-vehicle prices reached $20,153 in the second quarter of this year — making it the first time the market has ever broken the $20K threshold. According to research firm Edmunds, the 3.3-percent increase over 2017’s second quarter was also a record.

According to several sources, the average price of a new car in America currently hovers around $36,000. This is being consistently dragged upward by folks who just gotta have that Denali or deploy a GL65 AMG to tool around the streets of Beverly Hills.

Using that yardstick, lets play a game. Imagine you have to go out and buy a new car — right now — with today’s average price as your upper limit. But there’s a catch — it’ll be your only car for the next 10 years.

All that leg-stretching, snot-nosed kid-hauling, hockey equipment-carrying, ATV-lugging space that new vehicle buyers so desperately crave comes at a premium.

Thanks to this insatiable thirst for crossovers, SUVs, and pickups, the average new vehicle transaction price jumped to a new record in 2016. Good news for manufacturers, but also for those selling their old ride.

The average transaction price for a new car edged up slightly August to September from $33,563 to $33,730, researchers at Kelley Blue Book said Thursday.

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles posted the largest gain over the same month last year, as the automaker increased its average transaction price 4.1 percent to $34,809. Unsurprisingly, Volkswagen was the only major automaker to post a loss in the report, losing 1.6 percent from August to September this year, and 0.1 percent from September 2014.

Ford, General Motors and Kia/Hyundai all posted gains over 3 percent, year-over-year. Overall, the industry average for new car transaction prices rose 2 percent from September 2014 to September 2015. Toyota was the other automaker to fall below the industry average for gains. Its average transaction price increased by only 0.6 percent.

As loan terms continue to stretch further into the future, spending on new-car purchases hit a new all-time high in May 2015.

Forget about leasing Benzes and Lexuses: trucks are the new hotness, thanks to higher residuals and transaction prices, as well as more content.

This year is set to end on a high note as far as U.S. car sales are concerned, with 2015 shaping up to be the best year in a long time.

AutomakerNov. 2013Nov. 2012Pct. chng.11 month
201311 month
2012Pct. chng.BMW Group36,41136,5400%332,725304,5979% BMW division31,75231,2132%271,891244,06111% Mini4,5755,248–13%59,91059,6670% Rolls-Royce84796%9248696%BMW Group36,41136,5400%332,725304,5979%Chrysler Group142,275122,56516%1,639,3611,499,4209% Chrysler Division21,02418,76612%282,222282,4540% Dodge41,50640,0754%548,654472,59816% Dodge/Ram72,76165,14912%880,469742,64119% Fiat3,0753,603–15%39,49140,065–1% Jeep45,41535,04730%437,179434,2601% Ram31,25525,07425%331,815270,04323%Chrysler Group142,275122,56516%1,639,3611,499,4209%Daimler AG37,34532,65814%306,898273,69412% Maybach–5–100%–45–100% Mercedes-Benz36,38631,94914%298,489264,63613% Smart USA95970436%8,4099,013–7%Daimler AG37,34532,65814%306,898273,69412%Ford Motor Co.189,705177,0927%2,268,6442,030,10712% Ford division182,978171,3607%2,194,9341,955,34112% Lincoln6,7275,73217%73,71074,766–1%Ford Motor Co.189,705177,0927%2,268,6442,030,10712%General Motors212,060186,50514%2,555,9212,349,9849% Buick15,07213,28913%190,130163,93516% Cadillac16,17214,51711%164,378131,53425% Chevrolet145,089128,86713%1,793,6321,684,5557% GMC35,72729,83220%407,781369,96010%General Motors212,060186,50514%2,555,9212,349,9849%Honda (American)116,507116,5800%1,390,0571,290,0118% Acura14,55912,24619%149,685140,1827% Honda Division101,948104,334–2%1,240,3721,149,8298%Honda (American)116,507116,5800%1,390,0571,290,0118%Hyundai Group101,41694,5427%1,159,3261,161,9930% Hyundai division56,00553,4875%657,778643,5722% Kia45,41141,05511%501,548518,421–3%Hyundai Group101,41694,5427%1,159,3261,161,9930%Jaguar Land Rover6,0474,40037%59,65449,45221% Jaguar1,446713103%15,40810,96241% Land Rover4,6013,68725%44,24638,49015%Jaguar Land Rover6,0474,40037%59,65449,45221%Maserati887208326%3,7152,39755%Maserati887208326%3,7152,39755%Mazda20,75421,691–4%260,983249,7935%Mazda20,75421,691–4%260,983249,7935%Mitsubishi6,0713,57470%55,80453,6774%Mitsubishi6,0713,57470%55,80453,6774%Nissan106,52896,19711%1,138,6621,042,3669% Infiniti13,15211,89711%103,223107,250–4% Nissan Division93,37684,30011%1,035,439935,11611%Nissan106,52896,19711%1,138,6621,042,3669%Subaru36,62128,20630%384,511299,78828%Subaru36,62128,20630%384,511299,78828%Suzuki*–2,224–100%5,94623,412–75%Suzuki*–2,224–100%5,94623,412–75%Toyota178,044161,69510%2,045,1991,888,3618% Lexus25,61122,71913%239,090213,55912% Scion4,9685,606–11%63,99867,983–6% Toyota division147,465133,37011%1,742,1111,606,8198% Toyota/Scion152,433138,97610%1,806,1091,674,8028%Toyota178,044161,69510%2,045,1991,888,3618%Volkswagen48,69552,916–8%556,839553,2421% Audi13,63612,06713%141,048124,46913% Bentley32021251%2,5192,07821% Lamborghini*46445%5064766% Porsche3,9663,8653%39,07732,09122% VW division30,72736,728–16%373,689394,128–5%Volkswagen48,69552,916–8%556,839553,2421%Volvo Cars NA4,2336,141–31%56,34561,967–9%Volvo Cars NA4,2336,141–31%56,34561,967–9%Other***2532463%2,7832,7023%TOTAL1,243,8521,143,9819%14,223,37313,136,9638%

Sales of cars and light truck in the United States went up 9% overall to 1.24 million units delivered in November, selling at the fastest clip in almost seven years. The SAAR rose to 16.4 million units, exceeding analyst predictions of about 15.8 million vehicles. That’s the best seasonally adjusted annual rate since Feb. 2007, before the start of the global recession. November sales were the best since 2003 and close to the best November ever.