F1: 2007 Preview

So that’s it. F1’s greatest talent will not win the 2006 World Drivers Championship (WDC). Michael Schumacher admitted as much after last week’s Japanese GP, when engine failure sidelined his car and his hopes of an eighth title. “One cannot always win and things do not always go as planned.” Although Schuey threw in the proverbial towel, there is a way he could snatch victory from the jaws of defeat: if he wins the final race of the season and Renault pilot Fernando Alonso fails to score a single point. It’s not likely. But one thing is for sure: next year’s F1 will be the sport’s new dawn.

Ferrari and Renault remain heavy favorites for the 2007 constructor’s championship, though they should face significant pressure from teams lower down in the pecking order. Red Bull Racing will bring the brand new Adrian Newey-designed RB3 to the track. Given Newey's reputation at McLaren, the RB3 could emerge as a strong contender for the checkered flag– although the McLaren cars' rep for unreliability could mean that Red Bull is unlikely to remain competitive with the top teams for the duration of the season. Toyota’s impressive late-season performance has hinted at the team’s potential. With a blank slate and a blank check, we may well see Toyota challenging for the constructors' title– provided they can motivate the two stiffs they employ as drivers (Ralf Schumacher and Jarno Trulli).

In terms of the World Drivers' Championship, common wisdom holds Kimi Raikkonen as the front runner for next year’s title. Though universally acclaimed as a phenomenal driver, Raikkonen’s championship aspirations have been thwarted by the aforementioned mechanical "issues" over at McLaren. The Iceman’s move to the Ferrari team will finally provide F1 fans a chance to see how good the young Finn really is. Over the last few years, the Scuderia has shown itself peerless in race car design, quality and execution. Aside from the Ferrari team's mechanical prowess, their corporate culture will give the young Finn the backup he needs to concentrate on the job at hand.

Combined with Raikkonen’s well-deserved reputation for relying on his “attachments” (thank you David Hobbs), Kimi should set a blazing pace straight out of the box. In Hobbs’ immortal words, “that Kimi’s a brave boy." In other words, Raikkonen's a Ferrari ace in the classic mold. Back when Enzo Ferrari stalked the halls of Maranello, the Scuderia was known for bringing in young, reckless, extremely quick drivers; many of whom didn’t live out their time in scarlet (see Derrick “Death” Daley’s The Cruel Sport for a fascinating look at the period). Kimi should fit in well with the prevailing ethos, and provide the team with another guiding spirit.

Next season will also go down as first “Year of the Manufacturers.” Manufacturer teams will compromise more of the field in 2007 than ever before. There will be only a handful on privateers on the grid, as many of the independent teams have become little more than adjuncts of the manufacturer teams that supply their engines. This is a trend that is sure to continue in the years to come; whether for good or ill remains to be seen.

The freeze on engine development instituted by the FIA could well be the most significant change for '07. The engines that teams ran over the last two weekends of this season will be homologated for use through the 2010 season. Given the political volatility surrounding F1, it's highly unlikely that the strict, [ostensibly] long-term regulations will remain as they are now. But they signal a significant shift in the sport’s technological development paradigm for the foreseeable future. “Free” from the need to spend significant funds on engine development, aerodynamic development will become paramount.

This development is good news for some teams, particularly Red Bull Racing. When RBR “recruited” Adrian Newey from McLaren this year, they secured one of F1’s premier aerodynamicists. While Newey arrived too late to make a significant impact on the current RB2 racecar, its successor, the RB3, will be a clean sheet Newey design. While untested, it should provide a huge performance leap for the team. In the off-season, we should also see some clever aerodynamic solutions from the rest of the teams vying for pole position.

In short, the 2007 F1 season will be like none before. Despite the much-lamented FIA rule changes, new story lines will arise to breathe new life into both the drivers’ and the constructors’ championships. Raikkonen in scarlet, the consolidation of manufacturer power and Schumi’s absence should all provide ample entertainment and a highly competitive championship. For the first time in years, F1 is wide-open.