Back in 2007, I made my 37th pilgrimage to mouse country. My wife and kids were hardcore Disneyites. Me? I was just there for the company. I deal with enough Goofys in real life and the thought of waiting in line to meet yet another one chafed at me. So I told my wife that I would spend the next day visiting my own wonderland. An auto auction. There was a low mileage Geo Metro I was interested in along with about a half dozen other older vehicles.

Let’s pretend they never happened because… well… we’re still waiting for them. Sure, on the surface things could be worse. Real estate is getting to be cheap. Cars are getting even cheaper. We seem to be in this period of mild deflation where ‘deficits don’t matter’ and interest rates remain low thanks to China. It’s a debtly paradise that will eventually turn our economy upside down, but for now it’s all good. As John Fogerty used to say, “There’s a calm before the storm, I know it’s been calmin’ for some time.” I’m not convinced that hyperinflation will be on that menu, but a happy-go-lucky tightwad like me realizes that books and reality need to be balanced no matter what. So…

It was mine. A 1992 Lexus SC400 with only 78,000 miles had gone through a small dealer auction back in early 2009. Paint a little blotchy. Driver’s seat front had a small rip. But I really didn’t care. I knew it would be the last of it’s breed I would see in a while. After being halved to death ($50 bid increments), I bought if for $3450 plus the $120 fee. Threw in $300 of paint, $100 of upholstery, and financed it to an enthusiast for $8500. $3200 later the economy caught up with my customer and he voluntarily brought it back. $270 for a windshield and alternator and 11,000 more miles left me with a quandry. Do I keep it or finance again?

Six hours to showtime. We have 58 vehicles and 1 motorcycle for today’s sale. It will be a very interesting day between the first dealer conversation and the last car that rolls (or gets pushed) through the lane. We’re going to be managing an on site sale for a large financial institution that is most definitely not in the car business. Their business is the money business. They will demand 59 checks in hand within 24 hours, and these vehicles must help keep their books healthy for the end of year bonuses.

There are some cars that no one will appreciate… but the owners. A bad brand name. Fatal and expensive defects from times past. Even a body style made of a designer’s frump can turn a brilliant vehicle into a showroom relic. This week I majored in buying unloved cars. Seven cars. Seven sins. More than likely seventy-seven plus days on the pavement.

Kelley Blue Book has released its annual resale value data, and according to the WSJ, Toyota, Honda and BMW remain the top brands in five-year residual value. Still, Toyota’s average residual value dropped from 42.7 percent to 38.8 percent, while Honda fell from 44.5 percent to 38 percent. Those drops mirror an industry-wide decline in residual values, which had hovered around 35 percent for some time, but have fallen to about 32.6 percent for 2010 models. But American brands have bucked that trend:

KBB estimates Ford’s 2010 models will keep 32.4% of their value after five years. That’s an improvement—for 2009, KBB put the residual value of Ford’s models at 31.7%. Likewise, GM’s 2010 five-year residual value is 31.3%, up from 29.5% a year earlier. Chrysler’s figures are 29.5% for 2010 models, compared with 29% for 2009 models.

KBB’s top ten models for five-year residual value after the jump.

Growing up my family owned a Jeep Wagoneer that consistently broke down towing our boat. My frugal parents couldn’t afford to have it repaired by a mechanic so my Pop dutifully bought the repair manual and spent his days off cursing under the hood in our driveway. He eventually grew so frustrated that he dropped a 500cu Cadillac engine in that old Jeep. Technology has made do-it-yourself repairs little more than nostalgic memories. Now it takes expensive diagnostic computers to identify why the light on the dash came on. And not only are the diagnostic computers expensive but in many cases the codes are proprietary. With recent dealership closures, congress has proposed legislation to protect consumers access to this critical repair information. HR 2057, the Rural Communities Stranded Without The Right To Repair Act would require auto manufacturers to make repair information and computer diagnostic codes available to the general public.

We had a brief word with the IIHS’s Russ Raider, who was quite cagey on the origins and condition of the 1959 Bel Air that was destroyed for the Institute’s 50th birthday. What we were able to get out of him was that the ’59 Bel Air was in “good” condition, with only a little engine rust, leaky hood/trunk seals and non-original upholstery in the negative column. We also learned that the car was procured in Indiana, and with this information we went looking for Bel Airs on the internet. And you’ll never guess what we found . . .

BMW enthusiasts would have you believe that there’s only one “real” M3: the original 1986 model (codenamed E30). That bad boy began life as a homologation special for Group A Touring Car racing. As BMW updated the racer, the road car received power and handling upgrades. When the six-cylinder E36 M3 appeared in 1995 (US), enthusiasts derided it as too heavy and, well, comfortable. By the time the E46 M3 appeared in 2000, the ultimate driving sports sedan was considered a bit of a pig—by True Believer standards. In fact, the third generation M3 is an animal; it wants to be driven hard and put away wet. As you would when purchasing any German hot rod, tuck away a bit of money for repairs and consult a specialist before you plunge into an E46 M3. Consumer Reports put the E46 M3 on its reliability list, but a bunch of smaller stuff can and will go wrong, and your M car will need regular infusions of pricey fluids, pads and other consumables. Autotrader lists a Your Shitty Economy Car of the Week: a “pristine” (albeit white) dealer-sourced 53k-mile 2003 E46 M3 at a shade under $25K. So, about twenty large, then. Plus the turbo?

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Does this headline seem familiar? We noted a while back that British reliability records showed Chrysler and Fiat sharing space at the bottom of the rankings. Now, Glass’s Guide (via Autocar) has ranked British resale values by model, and Fiat’s Alfa 166 sedan takes dead last place. Not that this is entirely surprising; after all, reliability and resale tend to go hand-in-hand. The troubling part is that abominable resale values are already a major drag on Chrysler’s viability. How on earth is Fiat going to improve this desperate shortcoming for Chrysler, when it can’t beat the resale bug with its own products?

Whatever happened to Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous? Robin Leach’s TV series motivated class warriors and aspiring entrepreneurs alike, fortifying the former group’s conviction that they had a sacred duty to redistribute wealth (if only on aesthetic grounds) while inspiring rappers, coke dealers and other venture capitalists to redouble their efforts to reach ever-greater heights of conspicuous consumption. These days we have federal stimulus packages and MTV’s Cribs, which doesn’t include a single golden bath fixture (or a single book, but that’s another story). Ah, but we pistonheads will always have Pebble Beach, where we can watch old money compete with modern-day robber barons to pocket the world’s automotive crown jewels. One can almost hear Robin’s Harrow twang calling the tune: “One lucky collector bought home this 1938 Bugatti Type 57C Special, Ettore Bugatti’s personal car, for $1.38 mmmmmillion dollars.” Leach-like, the majority of the MSM would have you believe the collector car market defies economic gravity. The New York Times sets us straight.

The Cash for Clunkers (C4C) program is on its way to Senate approval, as your elected representatives have attached the bill to the $106 billion military spending bill. As the Detroit News reports, the C4C rider sallies forth into legislative battle in the same form as the House version: “Under the program, owners of cars rated at 18 mpg or less in combined highway and city mileage could turn them in for a cash voucher. Buying a new car rated at least 4 mpg higher would earn a $3,500 voucher; a 10 mpg improvement would earn a $4,500 voucher. Pickups would be eligible as long as the new vehicle has a mileage rating of at least 18 mpg and is at least 2 mpg higher than the old vehicle. A new truck rated at least 5 mpg higher than the turned-in vehicle would earn a $4,500 voucher.” One problem: the feds are not planning (i.e., budgeting) for success . . .

In a follow up to E. Niedermeyer’s previous post, details have emerged about the scheme to give rebates to buyers who trade “clunkers” for new, fuel-efficient vehicles. FT.com (Financial Times) reports that the program will cost taxpayers about $4 billion and will spur, according Brian Johnson, an analyst at Barclays Capital, the sale of 3 million units in the “near term” (whatever that means). With the US’ SAAR projected at approximately 9 million, this is a very optimistic prediction.

The Automotive Lease Guide is slashing projected residuals for 2009 GM and Chrysler vehicles, reports Automotive News [sub]. ALG says that their new 36-month projections reflect the brands’ “uncertainty,” heralding the arrival of yet another dire consequence of bankruptcy that the bailout was supposed to prevent. Oh well, what’s a few billion among friends? Now let’s take a look at the nitty-gritty.

“Cash for Clunker” policies have been enacted in a number of developed countries as a conveniently “green” way to stimulate new car sales. The idea is sold as a greenhouse gas-reducing measure which provides tax credits for removing older, less-efficient models from the road. Of course the point isn’t to get people out of cars or permanently reduce the number of GHG-emitting vehicles: to claim credits, you typically have to buy a new car. Texas already has its own take on the debt for more debt swap. And now the Congress– well the auto industry anyway– wants a piece of the action. Hence the Accelerated Retirement of Inefficient Vehicles Retirement Act of 2009.

CNW Research’s of Brandon, Ore, is in the business of tracking “consumer confidence, new-used floor traffic, manufacturer and dealer incentives, and used vehicle sales by channel.” In their daily work, they stumbled across a disturbing trend. As every grizzled veteran of this industry remembers, when the economy is down, used cars do well, because folks can’t afford new ones. People hold on to their ride much longer, which lowers the supply of used cars. Fewer new car sales mean fewer trade-ins, which lowers the supply of used cars. Or so the wisdom of the grizzled veteran goes. This time, it’s different. Sales of used cars fell 20.7 percent in November, compared with the period a year earlier. That’s still benign compared to the 37 percent hit the new cars took. But it disturbs the veterans nonetheless.

CNW expects 2008 to come in 36.6m units sold, down 11.5 percent from 2007. That would mark the lowest levels since the 1982 recession. Whoa: November new car sales also were the lowest since 1982. Are people tired of cars, whether old or new? Have we just been catapulted back to the bad early Reagan years?

The Automotive Lease Guide has released its projections for the vehicles most likely to retain their value three years from now, and they’ve awarded the top honors to three compact(ish) cars, the Scion xB, the Honda Fit and BMW’s MINI. The MINI took the overall prize, with ALG predicting that a new Cooper will retain 64.5 percent of its retail value after the average 36-month lease. The xB won the mid-compact category with a projected retention of 63 percent of its new value, while the Fit topped the compact class with a residual value estimated at 59.8 percent. ALG president John Blair tells Automotive News [sub] that price, design, new-vehicle incentives and fleet sales all went into the projections, with special consideration paid this year to Detroit’s woes. “The public needs to have confidence that the companies are solid and they’re going to be around to service the vehicles and provide a pathway for warranty work,” Blair said, by way of explaining why US firms ranked so low in the rankings.