February Predicted To Be Up 6.3%, GM To Get It On The Chin
Forecasters with the benefit of real-time sales data predict that February sales will be up slightly to 1,050,000 units, lifting the Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) to 13.8 million, up 6.4 percent from February 2011. This according to new projections by Kelley Blue Book. GM is predicted as a big loser.
KBB sales projection, February 2012
Sales VolumeMarket ShareManufacturer12-Feb11-FebYOY%12-Feb11-FebYOYGeneral Motors195,000207,028-5.80%18.50%20.80%-2.40%Ford165,000156,2325.60%15.60%15.70%-0.10%Toyota Motor Corp.147,000141,8463.60%13.90%14.30%-0.40%Chrysler Group119,00095,10225.10%11.30%9.60%1.70%American Honda100,00098,0592.00%9.50%9.90%-0.40%Nissan93,00092,3700.70%8.80%9.30%-0.50%Hyundai-Kia88,00076,33915.30%8.30%7.70%0.60%Volkswagen40,00029,31536.40%3.80%3.00%0.80%Total (incl non-shown)1,056,000993,5356.30%–––February’s winners are seen as Chrysler, Volkswagen, and Hyundai-Kia, in that order. GM is looking with worried eyes at the report. It predicts a 5.8 percent decrease in sales for GM. In a rising market, this would translate to a hefty 2.4 percent decrease in market share if Kelley is right.
KBB segment projection, February 2012
Sales VolumeMarket ShareSegment12-Feb11-FebYOY%12-Feb11-FebYOYMid-Size Cars188,000172,0819.3%17.8%17.3%0.5%Compact Car148,000146,2821.2%14.0%14.7%-0.7%Compact Crossover121,000113,5566.6%11.5%11.4%0.0%Full-Size Pickup Truck118,000109,6777.6%11.2%11.0%0.1%Subcompact Car63,00048,71429.3%6.0%4.9%1.1%Total (incl non-shown)1,056,000993,5356.3%–––Not much change in the segments, except for a rise of subcompact sales. The subcompact segment remains small.
Kelley Blue Book, which had called January correctly, thinks that the annualized sales pace will slow after April, when pent-up demand is satisfied. Says Alec Gutierrez, senior market analyst of automotive insights for Kelley Blue Book:
“From a pure volume perspective, in the months ahead sales will continue to exceed last year’s figures, but this year there may be more volatility from month-to-month than in 2011.Sales were remarkably flat from May through November 2011, due to the production woes faced by Toyota and Honda. Now that they are producing vehicles at full capacity, a return to traditional seasonal patterns is likely through 2012.”
If you are looking for deals, look for them amongst the domestics. Dealers of General Motors, Ford and Chrysler have more than 80 days’ supply of vehicles available on average. Toyota, Honda and Nissan are slightly up to more than 50 days’ supply. Hyundai and Kia are short of cars with only a 30 days’ supply of vehicles on average. Domestics spent more than $1,000 per unit more on incentives in January compared to their Japanese and Korean counterparts, a trend that will continue in February.
Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.
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Are you the ultimate Toyota fanboy who takes inventory at the local dealership? Or in the business?
I can't believe anybody buys aTundra. Besides it's hideous overdone styling, US New and World report rated it the 5th best full-size truck with bad gas mileage, poor metal quality, the "bed bounce deal", bad ride, rust issues, flimsy tailgate.......... the real American trucks kill this thing. Someone said buying a Tundra was like going to Paris or Rome and getting Chinese room service. The only thing the Nissan Titan is good for is keeping the Tundra from being the worst full-size truck!