Opinion: The Tesla Cybertruck Won't Change the Game
Now that I've had nearly a week to digest the Tesla Cybertruck news, I've come to the conclusion that the Cybertruck will neither revolutionize the automotive market nor be such a flop that it kills Tesla.
Yes, I wrote a while back that the truck would be a sales flop. I still think it could be, though obviously "flop" is relative to what Tesla expects. Perhaps the company has more realistic expectations than what we've seen publicly.
Based on the specs we covered last week and the truck's aesthetics and pricing, I think the Cybertruck is going to sell to a limited number of customers.
Those customers will be a mix of Tesla loyalists, those who actually think it looks good, and folks who want to have the most interesting ride. Some celebrities and other wealthy folk are a mix of all three.
I don't think the average truck buyer who's thinking EV is going to move away from a Ford Lightning or Rivian -- the Cybertruck appears to be limited in its ability to be used for utilitarian purposes. Maybe not as limited as some of its harshest critics suggested during the long lead up between the unveiling of the prototype and last week's official launch, but still not quite on par with a traditional truck that happens to have an EV powertrain.
There's no doubt you'll see Cybertrucks in the wealthiest parts of LA, and in Silicon Valley, and at valet stands at hot restaurants across the country. I don't think you'll see many used for towing or off-roading.
I could be wrong -- opinions and predictions often are. But I just don't see Johnny the electrician, Mary the Rancher, or Jennifer the horse breeder buying these trucks for work purposes.
This is not Tesla hate or as I've seen it elsewhere, some form of derangement syndrome. And admittedly I, like most people, have yet to drive the vehicle or even see it in person. I am basing this early judgment off of reported specs and pictures.
Personally, I don't HATE the Cybertruck. I don't love its looks, though it's not the ugliest mass-production vehicle I've ever seen (that honor probably still belongs to the Pontiac Aztek). I might enjoy driving it -- I won't know for a while, if ever. I just don't think it's going to move the needle as a utility vehicle -- it's going to sell to certain types of buyers, as mentioned above.
That might still be enough for Tesla to make a profit, or at least not nearly bad enough to bring doom for the company, as some naysayers have predicted.
One need not hate a vehicle to think it won't be some revolutionary product.
The Cybertruck may or may not be a flop. But it's not going to be a megahit.
[Images: Tesla]
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Tim Healey grew up around the auto-parts business and has always had a love for cars — his parents joke his first word was “‘Vette”. Despite this, he wanted to pursue a career in sports writing but he ended up falling semi-accidentally into the automotive-journalism industry, first at Consumer Guide Automotive and later at Web2Carz.com. He also worked as an industry analyst at Mintel Group and freelanced for About.com, CarFax, Vehix.com, High Gear Media, Torque News, FutureCar.com, Cars.com, among others, and of course Vertical Scope sites such as AutoGuide.com, Off-Road.com, and HybridCars.com. He’s an urbanite and as such, doesn’t need a daily driver, but if he had one, it would be compact, sporty, and have a manual transmission.
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There's no need to rely solely on published specs anymore; there are YouTube reviews from people who've actually driven the CT. Sandy Monroe interviewed Elon Musk and discussed the CT technology at length.
The CT is not a "bet the company" product for Tesla. It's more of a technology development platform--the new technology being the 4680 cell, 800V architecture, steer-by-wire, 4 wheel steering, CAN over ethernet, 48V low-voltage system, etc.
The "low cost" Tesla currently in development is a much more important product for them. Elon claims the manufacturing technology for this new product is revolutionary, and a radical departure from what is currently done by other manufacturers. It probably involves one giant casting for the whole body.
The Tesla cars on offer now are not my cup of tea, but I must admit that Elon is running rings around the rest of the industry in terms of technological innovation.
"Yes, I wrote a while back that the truck would be a sales flop. "
Not sure if it will be a hit, but I doubt a flop - it will sell well and perhaps very well depending on eventual pricing. If they put GM Hummer EV money on it as I assume (at first) sales will be limited. But if in a year this becomes the new "Model S" being the step above model from the more plebian 3/Y (say 20-30K+) but still in the 5%er ballpark, I think it will sell well and perhaps even become a hit.
"I don't think the average truck buyer who's thinking EV is going to move away from a Ford Lightning or Rivian"
I disagree, if someone is in the market for this class they know about the CyberTruck. They may not like the CT, but they are also aware Tesla is the only company to have put out a serious BEV which despite a lot of build quality issues does seem to deliver on its promises. Rivian should be commended, but they are Tesla ten years ago and will suffer similar teething issues. Ford is in complete disarray with nearly all of its products, only very loyal Ford buyers are looking at Lightning. If I was in the market I would hold off for another year to see if a less, shall we say ostentatious, CyberTruck appears (or even body kits or something to refine the polarizing look which I think turns off otherwise surefire buyers).
"the Cybertruck appears to be limited in its ability to be used for utilitarian purposes."
Just like "SUV"s.
"I don't think you'll see many used for towing or off-roading."
Just like "SUV"s. You also won't see many Rivians or F150 Lightnings either if any at all.
"I could be wrong -- opinions and predictions often are. But I just don't see Johnny the electrician, Mary the Rancher, or Jennifer the horse breeder buying these trucks for work purposes."
They're also not buying the Rivians or Lightnings either. The electrical contractor whose shop is behind the building I recently bought told me he mostly runs vans but also has a Chevy 1500 2WD W/T beater like most trades/construction people. However his personal truck is a 2021ish Raptor, no joke. The Lightning came up in a conversation, and being an electrician this man is a fan of BEV but he said there was no way he wasn't getting the Raptor after he profited well enough on his 2018 F150 trading in 2022 (somehow bought the 2018 new-used or off lease or something and claimed he made 20 or 30K on it).