#prediction

The following article is long. Some of you will decry it as fiction outside of the space this website normally reserves for stories and others of you will lament its presence on what is supposed to be an automotive news website. Maybe you are right, but the truth is that I read a lot and my mind is constantly pulling at a million disparate threads of information and tying them together in ways that make unusual patterns. Some of these things have coalesced this week into the following piece and so I have offered it to the editors to see if they think it has a place on our esteemed pages. If you are seeing it, then they have given it the green light and all I can do is ask you to indulge me.

Articles about the future used to show up in the newspapers and the magazines with surprising regularity when I was a kid. They were great reading and were almost always accompanied by large, full color illustrations by noted artists like Syd Mead that fleshed out the words out surprising detail. In virtually every case, despite much of the turmoil going on in our country in the 1970s, those articles painted a picture of a better, brighter future. Now more than a third of the way through the second decade of the 21st century, we all know that things didn’t turn out quite the way those old articles imagined but that doesn’t mean that we should stop trying to predict what is coming. I can’t help but think that a better tomorrow really is right around the corner.

Many pronounced the end of China’s torrid growth of car sales after they slowed to just 4.57 percent in February. Xing Huang, chairman of state-owned auto parts maker China Auto Parts & Accessories Corp (CAPAC), thinks otherwise. He expects the Chinese auto market to grow at the same speed in 2011 as in the year before, says Reuters. That would be 32 percent.

We are still waiting for the September sales numbers for China ( at least we were spared the usual CATRC drama of faux numbers – maybe because there was a one week holiday?) But here comes something interesting (or shocking, depending on who’s side you’re on.) Auto sales in China could hit 17 million units this year, up from 13.6 million in 2009, Chinese state media said today, citing the China Association for Auto Manufacturers (CAAM.) And that was the harmless part.

Whenever yours truly sings the long-term praise of the booming Chinese auto market, it elicits loud protests: “Can’t be! Bubble market! The environment! (Our gasoline.)”

The people who make and sell cars for a living have a different opinion. The AlixPartners consultancy asked 50 senior executives from both foreign and domestic players in China’s automobile industry how much they think the Chinese car market will grow between now and 2015. Guess what their answer is?