By on September 30, 2011

The Japanese car industry is slowly but surely producing and exporting itself out of the huge hole caused by the March 11 tsunami. The Japanese domestic market remains where it was before the catastrophe: In the dumps. This is the bottom line of August production, export and domestic sales data released today by the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association. (Read More…)

By on September 10, 2011

Now that Chinese car sales are a hot topic on CNBC, and now that even Jalopnik reports Chinese car sales, here a short primer on how it’s done. You may want to write that down. It’s tricky.

The people who have the final word on Chinese automobile production and sales are not from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. The final word has the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). Never use the data of the China Passenger Car Association, they just lead you astray. I also recommend to distrust Bloomberg, they are prone to making mistakes – although this time, they were right.  If your Chinese is a bit rusty, use sources such as Shanghai Daily to double-check. No problem. Love to help. Now, for the numbers: (Read More…)

By on September 7, 2011

Our Chinese sales oracle has spoken, and it says that sales of cars in China are good. August sales numbers released by General Motors today indicate that China has left the doldrums behind and is revving up to its old double digit self. Sales of GM China and its Chinese joint ventures set an August sales record and rose 13.4 percent (compared to August 2010) to 205,885 units. (Read More…)

By on September 2, 2011


This is round two of TTAC’s “Grade The Analysts”. Last time, we graded only on how closely analysts hit the SAAR number (table provided by Bloomberg.). If we would have done this this time, all would have received an A or better. The guesses were THAT close. The overall SAAR  for August was 12.1 million, and none of the analysts did bet on less than 11.9 or better than 12.3. Instead of giving them all gold stars, we made it a bit more interesting. (Read More…)

By on September 1, 2011
Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR
Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan) NA NA  NA 12.1
Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank)  NA NA  NA 12.2
Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) 20% 18% 12% 12.1
Brian Johnson (Barclays) 15% 14% 15% 12.1
Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) 19% 16% NA 12.3
Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs) 11% 14% 10% 12.0
Itay Michaeli (Citigroup) NA NA  NA 11.9
Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley) NA NA  NA 11.9
George Magliano (IHS Automotive)  NA NA  NA 12.2
Jeff Schuster (J.D. Power) NA NA  NA 11.9
Jessica Caldwell ( 20% 14% 21% 12.3
Jesse Toprak ( 20% 12% 22% 12.2
Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)  NA NA  NA 12.2
Seth Weber (RBC) 15% 14% 13% 12.1
Average 17% 15% 16% 12.1


After a tepid July, analysts predict a likewise unenthused August when it comes to new car sales in the U.S.  The consensus of Bloomberg’s panel of 14 analysts is a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 12.1 million. (Read More…)

By on September 1, 2011


Sales of regular automobiles in Japan were down 25.5 percent in August, compared to the same month in the previous year, data provided by the Japan Automobile Dealers Association shows. This sounds worse than it is: In August 2010, sales had jumped 46.7 percent, result of  a last gasp of government subsidies which were coming to an end. (Read More…)

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