#Oversupply

According to the signs standing proudly outside local gas stations, there’s almost never been a better time to hit the road. At the same time, there’s never been more reason to stay at home.

The bizarre tug-of-war between today’s shockingly low pump prices and the need to self-isolate seems tailor-made to frustrate drivers everywhere; it’s a situation that only benefits those with a cabin in the deep, dark woods in some remote corner of the continent, as well as whatever commercial fleets are still in operation. Your author envies those folks with cabins.

Two days ago, Bloomberg brought harrowing news:

“Chinese dealers are struggling with the rising number of unsold cars that’s threatening to deepen price cuts. Dealerships for Honda Motor Co., Chery Automobile Co., BYD Co. and Geely carried more than 45 days of inventory as of the end of April, exceeding the threshold that foreshadows debilitating price cuts.”

Automotive News made the matter the opener of its Friday video newscast. Apparently, the sky is soon to fall in China. The situation is even more dramatic elsewhere.

Third quarter North American auto production is headed for the 11.8m mark, even as analysts at IHS Automotive revise their sales projections downwards to 11.5m, once again raising the specter of oversupply which haunted Detroit for much of the last decade. GM, which is forgoing a Summer plant shutdown this year, is expected to increase its Q3 production by 32 percent over last year, as its market estimate ranges from 11.5 to 12m units according to Automotive News [sub]. Though that’s on the high end compared to the IHS number, and though GM’s market share has been anything but stable, the firm is keeping a steady hand on the tiller to maintain a sense of normalcy headed into its forthcoming IPO. And with inventories in far better shape than they’ve been in years, automakers reckon they can always get rid of extra cars when the market rebounds next year. In the meantime, however, the risks of overproduction are very real.