#October2010

New car registrations in the 27 countries of the EU crashed by 16.6 percent to 1,027,036 units in October. That according to the latest statistics of the European manufacturer organization ACEA. The year looks a bit better: In the first 10 months, demand for new cars has decreased by 5.5 percent, totaling 11,279,542 new vehicles registered.

Say what you want against Volkswagen, but they are moving the metal. In the first 10 months of 2010, Volkswagen delivered just shy of 6m cars to customers. 5.98m to be exact. In the same period of 2009, they had sold 5.32m, so that’s a plus of 12.4 percent. According to a message from Volkswagen HQ, the world market only rose 4.5 percent in October, the Volkswagen Group increased sales by 9.8 percent in the same month. That’s market share, baby!

This will disappoint those who were hoping for a cooling-off of the Chinese auto market. Chinese automakers in China shipped 1.2m passenger cars to dealers in October, up 27.1 percent from a year earlier, the official China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) told Reuters today. Overall vehicle sales, which also include buses and trucks, were 1.54 million units, up 25.5 percent from a year ago.

A few days ago, I wrote about car sales all over Europe falling faster than a…..erm……really fast thing. I also wrote how this didn’t bode well for the UK car market. Well, the figures are in and, unfortunately, I wasn’t wrong – this time. It’s pretty bad. New car registrations fell 22.2 percent in October. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) also said that further declines are likely for the rest for the year. Oh goody(!) Looks like I’m going to have to find more words for “dropped”.

Shall we take a look at the carnage? It’s not for the faint of heart.

Our patent-pending China new car market prediction system (take GM China, deduct a few percent) hasn’t been doing so well lately, due to the poor showing of Wuling, which confused the mix. Let’s give it another cautious go. GM China increased its October sales by 19.6 percent on strong sales of Buick, Chevrolet and Cadillac cars. That according to Bloomberg, which has it straight from GM Shanghai.

Most of the smaller makers reported October sales yesterday as the nation went to go vote. The big ones decided to wait until today: The Detroit 3, Toyota, Honda, and Nissan.

After the Abwrackprämien-high in 2009 (which saved the auto industry from damnation and got rid of a lot of old cars), and the short hangover that followed, Germany is definitely back to normal. For the second month in a row, German new car sales are at 2008 levels. According to the official data of the German Kraftfahrtbundesamt, October sales were 20 percent below October 2009, but only 0.8 percent below October 2008. The graph above tells a better story.

Numbers are not in yet, and many makers won’t report until tomorrow, but it already looks like October was the best in 14 months, if Bloomberg has it right. What’s more, buyers are willing to cough up more for 2011 model-year vehicles.

Tomorrow, you have two choices:

1.) Go vote.

2.) Watch the real time reporting of October new car sales on TTAC.

What should you do?