#May2011

Europeans are either tired of their old cars, or the effects of the cash for clunkers largesse are finally getting digested, or both. Whatever the reason, new passenger car registrations increased by 7.1 percent in the EU in May, as data released by the European Auto Manufacturers Association ACEA shows.

China’s auto sales fell 3.98 percent to 1.3828 million in May. Production dropped 4.89 percent to 1.3489 million units. This according to data released today by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), and reported by China’s state news agency Xinhua.

Three cheers for our patent-pending TTAC China sales oracle, a.k.a. GM China. It nailed the number pretty closely in May. GM China’s May sales were down 2.7 percent. All percentages compared to May 2010.

Zhu Yiping, CAAM’s assistant secretary general, said the decline in May was caused by the removal of tax incentives in car purchases this year, rising fuel costs, and the purchase limits in some cities that were put in place to combat traffic congestion.

And finally in our series of Teutonic luxo-barges: the boys from Stuttgart. For long, Daimler used to look down their noses at the boorish upstarts from BMW, and even more so at – ach du mein Lieber – Audi.

Daimler better get used to looking up. Despite record sales in May, Mercedes-Benz takes the #3 step on the podium, both in May and YTD. The race is close, but Mercedes is getting a bit short-winded. In May, the starred brand delivered a total of 108,766 passenger vehicles to customers worldwide, up 7.3 percent. YTD, the tally stands 490,021 units, up 10.5 percent.

May shapes up to be an accommodating month for China watchers: There’s something for everybody. You want to see the Chinese bubble burst? May will give that to you. You want cliché-confirmation, you want to hear that Chinese hate Japanese? May gives you automotive anti-Japan pogroms. You want GM up? No problem, May has got that. You want GM down? No problem, May has got that. You want unbridled growth? May can do.

Or as the Chinese say: “May wen ti!” No problem!

First, let’s have a look at our patent-pending TTAC China sales oracle, a.k.a. GM China.

Japan’s March 11 tsunami had more destructive effects than just washing pint-sized (ok, ok, 0.6 liter sized) kei cars to the top of Japan’s sales charts. It also resulted in considerable menboku o tsubusu (literally “breaking of face”, dishonor) for Lexus. On its home-turf Japan, Toyota’s lux-brand was outsold by doitsu (German) BMW, even by Mercedes, a brand said to be popular with the yakuza. Speaking of major menboku o tsubusu: BMW did certainly not top Toyota, as Bloomberg insinuates.

In the merry month of May, Germans celebrated their new-found love for das Auto. Europe’s largest auto market grew 22 percent year-on-year and 14.4 percent month-on-month. That according to just released statistics by the German Kraftfahrtbundesamt.

Analyst forecasts for May were perhaps a little bearish on Ford and a little too bullish on GM, as the two remaining American automakers saw their volumes drop by 3% and 1% respectively (year-over-year) last month. Pickups seem to have been the highest hurt by high gas prices, as GM’s full-sizers dropped 14%, while Ford’s F-Series dropped 15% despite a 55% mix of Ecoboost V6-powered F-150s. But the real losers in May’s downturn were probably the Japanese automakers, whose numbers are just starting to come in, while the biggest winners appear to be the luxury brands, with Porsche up 50% and Maserati up 36%. Check back often as we update our developing table of US auto sales in May.

Sales of new cars, trucks and buses in Japan dropped 37.8 percent from a year earlier in May, data released by the Japan Automobile Dealers Association show. It could have been worse.

TrueCar released its May 2011 sales forecast. At this time in the calendar, these forecasts, based on real transactional data, usually come close to reality. For May 2011, TrueCar expects new light vehicle sales in the U.S. to be 1,060,392 units, down 3.7 percent from May 2010 and down 8.3 percent from April 2011(unadjusted basis for sales days). This would be a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 11.85 million new car sales, down from 13.18 million in April 2011 and only slightly up from 11.63 million in May 2010. Why the sudden reluctance?