Grade The Analysts: Caldwell Wins Race Against 15.1 Million

RankAnalyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverall1Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com)-5.0%18.0%32.0%14.44.64%18.15%22.79%2Brian Johnson (Barclays Capital)-3.6%7.1%32.0%14.35.30%20.34%25.64%3Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com)-6.1%14.0%27.0%14.35.30%20.94%26.24%4Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs)-2.6%11.0%26.0%14.35.30%21.44%26.74%5Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)-5.9%13.0%27.0%14.25.96%21.74%27.70%6Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA)-3.9%5.6%25.0%14.53.97%29.14%33.12%7Joseph Spak (RBC)-5.2%8.0%24.0%14.16.62%29.04%35.67%8Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank)-4.0%8.7%22.0%14.16.62%29.14%35.77%9Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book)-5.8%5.6%25.0%13.88.61%31.04%39.65%10Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)-5.6%3.4%22.0%14.16.62%36.04%42.67%11Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)NA NA NA14.35.30%300.00%305.30%12Matthew Stover (Guggenheim) NA NA NA14.35.30%300.00%305.30%13Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan) NA NA NA14.25.96%300.00%305.96%14Itay Michaeli (Citigroup)NA NA NA14.25.96%300.00%305.96%15Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) NA NA NA14.07.28%300.00%307.28%16Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive)NA NA NA14.07.28%300.00%307.28%17George Magliano (IHS Automotive)NA NA NA13.88.61%300.00%308.61%Average-4.8%9.4%26.0%14.2Actual1.1%14.3%40.4%15.1

The strong February was good news for the car industry, bad news for the analysts. Even the most optimistic prognosis could not withstand the mad February rush to buying cars.

February ended with a Seasonally Adjusted Average Rate (SAAR) of 15.1 million, something the world had not seen since carmageddon. Even the most optimistic analyst (and the winner of the February round of Grade The Analysts) would predict only 14.4 million.

Read more
  • ToolGuy Government overreach. Park the Ford in your air-conditioned garage on a maintenance charger and this won't be a problem.Here's some (old) general background if you are interested.@ILO, there are 3 Fords, and Ford Pro™ is the one with the bright future 🙂
  • ToolGuy No harm no foul (no one died), business is business, yada yada. Why must everyone pick on dealers?-this post dedicated to Ruggles
  • Hydrocrust Parts
  • ToolGuy The vehicle development process which gave the world the Neon was so amazing (according to the automotive press) that it prompted Rick Wagoner to hire Bob Lutz.Didn't work 🙂
  • Lou_BC When my son was at the local Kia dealer they had a vehicle in for service. It was badly rusted. He refused to sign off on it as a tech. The owner being a grade A douchebag had the owner sign a release and let it go.