#CarSales

Western media widely reported ( and still reports) that the Chinese government will only allow Chinese cars to be bought by its functionaries.

Not so. The rule exists in draft form only,and has been published to elicit public feedback. However, in a disturbing development, China Daily reports that “nearly 90 percent of respondents in a survey are in favor of China’s domestic independent-brand automobiles for governmental use.” It’s not that 90 percent said so. It’s the ominous fact that it is being published in a government-owned paper.

If the survey is correct, then Chinese citizens want to look down on the car choices of their rulers. The Chinese themselves are widely in favor of foreign cars. 70 percent of all cars bought in China are foreign branded. The appetite for foreign branded cars remains high,as the following tables show.

Yesterday brought you news of the tepid Japanese car market that has been down 26 percent for the year. Commenter Alex Nigro DEMANDED the answer to “Are Japanese people still not interested in driving?”

The Nikkei [sub] immediately went on the case and reports today that there is one segment in the industry that is booming: Bicycles. Writes the Nikkei:

“The March 11 earthquake triggered an increase in the number of people who commute to work by bike, and new business are cropping up to accommodate this trend, including high-end park-and-shower services in central Tokyo.”

According to lore, Germany’s autobahn is teeming with S-Class, Porsches, and the occasional Veyron mixed in. Not so, says Germany’s Über-DMV, the Kraftfahrtbundesamt, in an article about the 50 top selling cars in Germany of 2010. “Upper class and sports cars are not in the Top 50,” say Germany’s keepers of car data. The truth is in the following table.

Many pronounced the end of China’s torrid growth of car sales after they slowed to just 4.57 percent in February. Xing Huang, chairman of state-owned auto parts maker China Auto Parts & Accessories Corp (CAPAC), thinks otherwise. He expects the Chinese auto market to grow at the same speed in 2011 as in the year before, says Reuters. That would be 32 percent.

How things change. A few months ago, German dealers complained that the sky is falling, and that it’s the end of the car business as we know it – just because German cars sales had crashed from their Abwrackprämien-induced unnatural highs. Now, German car dealers have new reason to be worried: More buyers than cars! Rationing! Come back next year!

We are still waiting for the September sales numbers for China ( at least we were spared the usual CATRC drama of faux numbers – maybe because there was a one week holiday?) But here comes something interesting (or shocking, depending on who’s side you’re on.) Auto sales in China could hit 17 million units this year, up from 13.6 million in 2009, Chinese state media said today, citing the China Association for Auto Manufacturers (CAAM.) And that was the harmless part.

Remember carmageddon? It is not forgotten in Germany. As a matter of fact, Germany’s biggest carmageddon happened last month, in May. While champagne corks popped in the U.S., propelled by a 19 percent plus in May, the Germans are crying into their beers. According to numbers released by the German Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt (KBA,) the new car market collapsed by heart attack inducing 35.1 percent in May. That’s not the worst part of the story.

Whenever yours truly sings the long-term praise of the booming Chinese auto market, it elicits loud protests: “Can’t be! Bubble market! The environment! (Our gasoline.)”

The people who make and sell cars for a living have a different opinion. The AlixPartners consultancy asked 50 senior executives from both foreign and domestic players in China’s automobile industry how much they think the Chinese car market will grow between now and 2015. Guess what their answer is?

Chinese dually. Picture courtesy transportfool.com

I spent an interesting Saturday with two old friends of mine. They had never met before. One, American, CFO of an insurance company, had been in the finance and banking business all his professional life. The other, born Chinese, naturalized American. Was one of the top mortgage writers in the Silicon Valley before the dotcom crash. Came back to China and heads a Chinese/American bank. The two got along splendidly.

Of course, we talked about money and cars. Recently, there was a discussion on TTAC on how the bursting of the Chinese real estate bubble would destroy the car market just like it had in the USA. I eagerly set out to pick their brains.

Quite oddly, the first one to throw water on the bubble theory was my friend, the staid CFO of the staid insurance company.

China’s passenger car sales in January skyrocketed an unbelievable 115.5 percent from a year earlier, China’s official scorekeeper, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said today. A total of 1.32m passenger cars were sold last month in China, compared with 610,600 units a year earlier. In December 2009, 1.1m units changed hands, Reuters reports. The January number is even more surprising as the China Passenger Car Association had originally figured that China’s passenger car sales rose 84 per cent in January. We compared the Reuters story with Xinhua, the official word on China, and Xinhua also says: “Passenger car sales were up 113.21 percent to 1.32 million units last month.”

Overall vehicle sales, including buses and trucks as well as cars, were even more amazing: A total of 1.66m units in January, up 126.3 percent from 735,500 units a year earlier. Keeping passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles apart is a frustrating exercise in China. Minivans for instance, and of course pickups, count as commercial vehicles.

Yesterday, we reported that China wants to be a market of 20m cars in 2012. We didn’t predict that, just reporting the news, ma’am.

A hue and cry ensued: “Can’t be!”

Commentator ohsnapback, who’s forte is lawyering, a much more complex field than economics, prognosticated an immediate burst of the Chinese bubble, with a mega tonnage of more than 100 times of our housing bubble. The argument was promptly defused. After all, China doesn’t borrow money. They lend it. Mostly to the U.S.

Then, commentator ra_pro rolled out the really big ordnance: “As I said many times previously: Demography is Chinese destiny as it is Japan’s.” If people would only stop prattling on about demographics, and would check their data first.

Come 2010, U.S. customers will storm the few remaining dealerships. GM will go public with a healthy pop that makes the taxpayer rich. The good old times will be back. The Japanese don’t think so.

You have to hand it to the Japanese. They have their numbers down pat. Which country knows on December 1 how many cars they have sold in all of November? Japan does. And guess what: Sales of new cars and trucks in Japan rose 36 percent year on year to 293,410 units in November, says the Nikkei [sub], quoting numbers released by the Japan Automobile Dealers Association. And guess what again: This is the fourth straight month that Japanese car sales have been increasing. Hold on, there is more …

So used has the MSM become to China’s red hot car growth, that Reuters headlines the October sales report “Chinese car sales dip in October, but still robust.” China’s passenger vehicle sales clocked-in a year-on-year growth of 79.6 percent in October. In September, the growth was 83.62 percent, which serves as the reason for Reuter’s slight concern.