#Alliances

From a week deep in our “How The Hell Did We Miss That” file comes a Reuters report that shows GM considered floating its IPO on the Hong Kong Hang Seng index. GM’s interest in a Hong Kong float has obvious roots: the company is extremely well-positioned in China, where high savings rates and the prospect of steady local sales growth could have helped bring in both private investors and GM’s partner firms. But according to a Reuters source, GM rejected the idea because it would have delayed the IPO past its Thanksgiving deadline

I don’t think signaling goodwill toward Asia is likely to be a significant enough argument for all the cost and complexity. I don’t want to overstate the cost and complexity but it’s not insignificant

China’s State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC) has formed an alliance of 16 Chinese government-owned businesses, aimed at unifying EV standards and speeding up research and development. According to CRIenglish.com, the non-profit group has a startup budget of about $186m, but Peoples Daily claims the group is ramping up to spend $14.7b on EV development over the next ten years (time to start worrying about an EV subsidy gap?). The alliance is said to include the country’s top three oil majors, top two power grid operators, battery and charging equipment makers, as well as the automakers China FAW Group Corporation, Dongfeng Motor Corporation and China Changan Automobile Group. And though this smacks of a response to US government spending on EV stimulus, the Chinesse industry is not exactly praising the new state-owned alliance with one voice.

With GM’s IPO S-1 now set for a Wednesday filing, The General is announcing a joint engine development project with its Chinese partner SAIC, spurring on rumors that the Shanghai-based automaker could buy into GM’s forthcoming IPO. Reuters reports that GM and SAIC have signed an agreement to develop a new range of 1.0-1.5 liter direct-injection, turbocharged engines in the vein of Ford’s EcoBoost mills. The ground-up joint engine development is significant because, as the WSJ [sub] reports

it marks the first time when GM and SAIC – partners for more than a decade already – are going to develop “base” propulsion technology, going a step further than simply integrating existing engine and gearbox technologies into automobiles.

GM has already moved much of its advanced technology development to new Chinese R&D labs, and this attack on Ford’s EcoBoost technology is likely to become a global engine. But what does the ever-increasing cooperation between GM and SAIC (which recently bought out GM’s controlling interest in their Shanghai GM joint venture) portend for the GM IPO?

“Flirtation between Nissan and GM has a rich history,” said our Dear Leader. Here we go again. This time, with the whole cabal. Renault’s Ghosn has put an entry in the Match.com of the auto trade. Reuters says that Renault could work closely with a U.S. partner if the occasion arose, but it is not crucial. Not only is Renault flirtatious, they make it sound like it’s a no strings attached kind of a thing. It never is …

No sooner had TTAC posted its list of Top Ten Automakers (by volume), than Renault-Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn weighed in on his firms’ chances of moving on up. He tells Reuters:

Very likely this year, we should be in the top three

Volkswagen is currently in third place, with 6,290,000 units built in 2009. Nissan was in eigth place last year with 2,744,562 units (down 19 percent), while Renault came in tenth with 2,309,188 units (down 4.5 percent). Combined, the two firms accounted for 5,053,750 units, or about 1.2 billion units fewer than VW’s third-place showing (and only a few hundred thousand better than Ford, in fourth place).

Having recently hooked up with firms like BYD and Suzuki, Volkswagen is continuing its rampage across the developing world’s markets, as Reuters reports that the VW’s leadership is in talks with the Malaysian state-owned (42 percent) automaker Proton. VW had previously sought an alliance with Proton, but talks broke off without an agreement in 2007. According to Bloomberg BusinessWeek, VW is not likely to take a stake in Proton despite last year’s policy shift by the Malaysian government allowing foreign firms to own majority stakes in mainstream Malaysian automakers. Proton was founded as a joint venture between the Malaysian state-owned firm Khazanah Nasional Berhad, and Mitsubishi.

GM’s plan to develop an electric version of its (previous-generation) Chevrolet Spark city car for developing markets had been dependent on a joint development deal with REVA, the Indian firm responsible for such vehicles as the REVAi (known to Brits and Top Gear fans as the G-Whiz). But with the AP [via BusinessWeek] reporting that Mahindra & Mahindra has bought a 55 percent stake in REVA, GM’s deal to use REVA’s technology in its Daewoo-developed hatchback appears to be off. GM had already scaled back its cooperation with REVA, delaying the planned release of the Spark EV and focusing on fleet testing the car. But, says GM India President Karl Slym

Now we’ve stopped the test fleet as well. We were doing it purely as something to learn. Now there’s no real benefit to that. We may as well stay with the GM solutions.

A lot of people have been shaking their heads at the Toyota/Tesla deal. Was it just an elegant way to unload the NUMMI plant? As in “here are $50m, please buy my plant with it?” Or is it part of a grand strategy, the beginning of Toyota’s foray into an all-electric future? As usual, the truth is stranger than business plans.

Akio Toyoda has often warned his company of the risks of “big company syndrome,” doubtless with the GM’s spectacular decades-long fall from dominance in mind. Today, he framed Toyota’s announcement of a partnership with EV startup Tesla as way to reconnect with a lost underdog mentality, saying

By partnering with Tesla, my hope is that all Toyota employees will recall that venture business spirit

Of course, he also said that only a recent return to profitability allowed Toyota to even consider this deal in the first place. And what of the deal? Toyota will buy $50m worth of Tesla shares “in a private placement to close immediately subsequent to the closing of Tesla’s currently planned initial public offering,” as a Tesla presser puts it. In exchange, Tesla is buying “site two” of the NUMMI plant for what Tesla CEO Elon Musk terms “a great price.” NUMMI will be the production site for Tesla’s Model S, a $30k Tesla, and a jointly-developed sub-$30k vehicle. The two firms also intend to cooperate on the development of EV components as well as production system and engineering support

The San Francisco Chronicle is reporting that California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has said that Toyota will team up with Tesla to “build electric cars in California.” The governor made this shocking revelation at Google’s I/O Conference today, and told reporters [via the Sacramento Bee]

Today is a very exciting day for me because … I am also going over to the Bay Area to talk about Tesla and Toyota forming a partnership, where they take one of the Toyota cars and make them electric. And again, they’re going to do that here in California.

The obvious scenarios involve joint manufacturing at Toyota’s former GM joint-venture plant NUMMI in Fremont, CA, although there has been no confirmation of these or any other details yet. [UPDATE: According to insidebayarea.com, a Downey, CA city councilman
confirms that Tesla will build the Model S at NUMMI. The Downey City Council had planned to approve a lease deal for a Tesla factory site, but Tesla CEO Elon Musk called to announce that his firm would be setting up shop at NUMMI]

Fiat doesn’t need other partners. We have a strong relationship with Chrysler and that is what we are actively working on

Fiat’s new Chairman, John Elkann, told shareholder’s in his family company Exor, exactly what every good, newlywed husband would say. Then again, not every husband had, shall we say, the appetite for partners that pre-Chrysler Fiat had. Just ask GM. Or BMW. Or Tata. Or Sollers. Or Zastava. Or SEAT. Or, you get the picture. Literally.

When people get married, they normally follow it up with a honeymoon and (at least traditionally) the consummation of said marriage. So, when Daimler and Renault-Nissan got hitched, how do you think they’d celebrate their first year of marriage? Build a car a together? Announce a joint venture factory? Start sharing dealerships? No. They had an argument. Just like your old polyamorous married couple.

Reporters didn’t hold a gun to Fiat/Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne’s head when they asked him where the next big industry consolidation would occur. He didn’t have to give an answer, and Automotive News [sub] certainly didn’t have to run it as a standalone story. But then, Marchionne’s Fiat is the Don Juan of the global auto industry, having been linked to flirtations with nearly every automaker in the game. If anyone has an idea of the M&A picture in Europe, it’s Sergio. His reply?

The next merger will probably be French. [PSA Peugeot-Citroen] tried with Mitsubishi and they will try with someone else… An alliance involving France and Germany is not that easy, but [the Renault-Daimler-Nissan deal is] a step in the right direction

PSA Peugeot-Citroen and BMW currently develop transverse four cylinder engines together… does Marchionne foresee a deeper relationship?