One of the arguments in favor of GM Chairman/CEO Ed Whitacre’s use of AT&T corporate jets is that “given the role he plays and the decisions that need to be made worldwide, you want this guy to be working 24/7.” But like so many of the “answers” we’re given about GM’s turnaround, this merely raises another question: besides learning such arcane auto-industry jargon as the term “segment,” what exactly is Ed Whitacre doing at GM? Thus far, the answer seems to be “firing executives,” as the last several months have seen a number of executive reshufflings at the RenCen. And though GM’s bailout left a number of GM lifers in positions they had mishandled prior to bankruptcy, the recent firings and re-orgs aren’t simply motivated by the desire to revitalize GM’s corporate culture. A look inside Whitacre’s reign of terror shows a more traditional GM impulse at play: the desire for quick spikes in volume.

Chrysler once again topped Edmunds’ True Cost Of Incentive index last month, despite failing to significantly improve its sales over February 2009’s miserable showing. The only upside is that Chrysler basically held even with reduced incentives, as the entire industry is spending about 14 percent less on incentives than it did a year ago. Another interesting point of analysis from Edmunds:

Comparing all brands, in February smart spent the least, $341 followed by Scion at $426 per vehicle sold. At the other end of the spectrum, Lincoln spent the most, $5,568, followed by HUMMER at $5,195 per vehicle sold. Relative to their vehicle prices, Saturn and HUMMER spent the most, 14.9 percent and 13.6 percent of sticker price, respectively; while Porsche spent 1.4 and smart spent 2.3 percent.

But Toyota and GM will help carry those numbers up next month, with huge incentive spends planned. Meanwhile, after many automakers found religion about retail sales last year, fleet sales are back in a big way. And they’re no longer seen as something to be ashamed of.

Chrysler’s long-disfunctional “Five Star Dealer” program may be on its way out, reports Automotive News [sub], as a new Fiat-created dealer rewards program rolls out to a Chrysler dealer body that’s fighting for survival. The new program, which may still be merged with Five Star, addresses several longstanding dealer complaints about Five Star, perhaps the most important of which is third-party verification [to be done by the Swiss audit firm SGS Group]. Given the deep mistrust that exists between Chrysler dealers and the mothership, bringing in outside auditors to perform certification was probably a prerequisite (and brings the Chrysler program in line with Ford’s practice of independent dealer rewards program auditing). But the biggest change also helps explain why Chrysler employees will no longer judge dealerships: instead of a mere star rating system, now there’s money at stake.

To the victor go the spoils. Who will be the victors, and how much spoilage will be there in the protracted Toyota battle? Of course, this is all in the name of safety and the children, and any sales dislocations will be unfortunate collateral damage. Really.

As optimistic as Toyota might want to be, over the next few months, their sales will decrease. They already do decrease. “Toyota’s US sales tumbled 16 per cent in January from a year earlier and are set to record another hefty fall this month,” reports Financial Times. Stoppage of deliveries and production, topped by a media onslaught, can have that effect.

Maybe Toyota’s ideas of an increased warranty and more incentives will work, long term, but in the short term, they’d better prepare themselves for negative numbers at the end of each month ahead.

As the first law of thermodynamics infers, energy cannot be created or destroyed, merely transposed. If customers are leaving Toyota, they don’t just disappear like Toyota‘s reputation for reliability China’s interest in US debt, they have to go somewhere. So where will they?

Having recently posted a nearly $5b loss, bailed-out auto finance giant GMAC says it needs more help from automakers to remain competitive. Automotive News [sub] reports that GMAC CEO Mike Carpenter told reporters that “the success of GMAC Financial Services hinges on more loan and lease subsidies from General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group,” and that “GMAC requires additional marketing funds from the automakers to provide competitive loans and leases to the GM and Chrysler dealer networks.” GMAC’s Chrysler business has nearly doubled in the last quarter of 2009, now providing about 26 percent of Chrysler’s retail financing and about 30 percent of GM’s.

Yes, they’ve got themselves one heck of a problem down Pentastar way: the boffins have done the math and reckon some 67 percent of Chrysler Group minivan buyers are previous owners. That’s a good thing when it comes to polishing your R.L. Polk Owner Loyalty award, but it’s not exactly helping Chrysler make inroads on volume or market share. Which is where the “Minivan Pledge” comes in. “It’s Time To Drive Detroit Again: The Best Minivans In The Industry Just Got Better,” shouts the headline of Chrysler’s release announcing a 60-day money-back guarantee for buyers who trade in a competitive product towards a 2010 minivan. “‘Minivan Pledge’ gives competitive owners the peace of mind to ‘try us again,’” is the pitch. The only problem: everyone knows it takes at least 90 days for a Chrysler minivan to eat its own transmission.

Incentives are a tricky hand to play. On one hand, you can’t be mean in putting cash on hood, because you want to bring customers into your showroom. On the other hand, too much cash on hood, looks bad and in the long term, it’s proven to be bad for business. So, Edmunds’ January 2010 incentive figures for the United States [release via benzinga.com], were a very interesting read.

Fiat’s Sergio Marchionne looked like a pretty shrewd operator when he was able to snag a bailed-out Chrysler from the US government without paying a penny. Between that and the booming European sales on the back of government-funded scrappage schemes, Fiat pretty much spent 2009 proving that automakers should cater to governments almost as much as consumers. But as 2009 wound down, Fiat’s government affairs winning streak came to a halt as the Italian government started asking for a little quid for its quo, and it’s been going downhill from there. Now that Fiat wants to shut down its Sicilian Termini Imerese plant, and right-size Italian production, the love affair is officially over. “We are examining the possibility of renewing [consumer incentives],” Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi told reporters from Automotive News [sub]. “But Fiat does not seem interested in them.”

Back when GM was going through its recent bankruptcy bailout-related unpleasantness, Toyota’s Yasuhiko Ichihashi told the AP that “Toyota was only hoping for an overall recovery for the U.S. auto industry, including GM.” Months later, then-Toyota President Katsuaki Watanabe even suggested that “it’s not something we would bring up on our own, and we don’t know enough about the restructuring plan, [but] if some talk about supporting GM comes up, we would like to consider it earnestly.” Now that Toyota is in a spot of PR trouble over its unintended acceleration woes, you might expect that GM would show the same class and tact that Toyota did just months ago… but you’d be wrong.

This week saw the Volt’s price point issues return to the public eye, as GM’s Chairman and CEO made it clear that he takes the government’s $7,500 tax credit for granted. But Whitacre’s dissembling revealed once again GM’s fundamental problem with the Volt: getting people past the sticker shock. Though GM’s short-term viability doesn’t hinge on the Volt selling like gangbusters, it’s clear that the Volt’s initial success or lack thereof will be a crucial factor in GM’s ability to hold a successful IPO and extricate itself from government ownership. Which, according to The Big Money‘s Matt DeBord, is one of the reasons the government should expand the Volt’s credit of $10k. Another reason: the Volt’s competition is too good!

with the base Prius selling for just over $20,000 and the base Honda Insight hybrid for under $20,000, the feds may have to start thinking about how to enable innovative electric and gas-electric plug-ins to survive. The EPA mandate to raise fleet fuel-economy standards to average of 35.5 mpg by 2016 looms, and a component of that target should be EVs and plug-ins. Otherwise, carmakers may abandon the tech, leaving it stillborn to cynically massage their fleet numbers by importing small cars from foreign operations to North America—cars they know Americans will only grudgingly purchase and that may force the government to chuck the 35.5 requirement.

Chrysler’s sales fell 36 percent last year, as bankruptcy and some of the weakest products on the market conspired to keep sales and market share trending downwards. CEO Sergio Marchionne figures Chrysler’s slide has hit bottom, and indeed his turnaround hinges on considerable improvement over last year’s dismal numbers. How much improvement? Marchionne tells the Freep that ChryCo needs to sell 1.1m vehicles in the US next year, an 18 percent improvement on 2009’s number, in order to reach his break-even projections. Worldwide, Chrysler needs to sell 1.65m vehicles, or 27 percent more than last year. Given the downward sales and market share momentum, the overall uncertainty of the US market, and the lack of new products until the end of this year, reaching those volume numbers won’t be easy. Especially because Marchionne refuses to cut any corners.

Speaking to Bloomberg yesterday, GM Sales Boss Susan Docherty called December’s sales results “very encouraging.” Her argument: heavy fleet sales in December 2008 explain why December 09 results look worse by comparison. But spinning sales results as the product of conscious fleet percentage reductions is just one longstanding GM tradition that Docherty indulged in: talking points touting falling incentives and improved inventory weren’t far behind. None of which is necessarily indicative of a satisfactory performance. In fact, if you dissect the spin, it’s clear that what lies beneath is not nearly as attractive as the PR would have you believe.

According to Reuters, GM has sent a letter to its dealers offering $7,000 for every new Saturn or Pontiac they can move to a rental or service fleet between now and January 4. The plan would essentially make dealers the first buyer of the remaining Pontiacs and Saturns, which would then be operated as fleet vehicles or be sold as low-mileage used cars. In any case, the single objective is clear: get those dead brands off the books at all costs. With 7,900 vehicles left at Pontiac as of the 14th of December and upward of 5,000 left at Saturn as of the beginning of the month, the cost to GM could easily approach $100m. But as they say in the advertisements, their loss is your gain…. as long as you’re interested in one of the G6s or Auras that dominate the dead-brand straggler inventory. Where’s Oprah when you need her?

While Ford is slowly but surely gaining traction in North America and China, Europe is storming ahead. Over at paddocktalk.com there’s report on Ford of Europe’s latest sales, which jumped 19.8% in November. This marks Ford’s sixth consecutive volume increase, resulting in a 9.1% year to date market share. “November was another month with outstanding volume gains for Ford of Europe”, said Roelant de Waard, Ford of Europe’s Vice-President for Sales. “Having the right products at the right time is paying off, and this is why we’re continuing to strengthen our position as the clear No.2 choice for customers in the European auto industry.” A key point included how 63% of their sales went to retail customers, which was an increase of 13%. Increase in sales? Increase in retail customers? Increase in market share? It all sounds great! Until you dig a little deeper.

Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne isn’t bothered by his firm’s sliding market share, which have declined to the point where Honda will certainly surpass them to become the number four automaker in America. At least that’s what he keeps saying, and Automotive News [sub] went ahead and made it a headline. If dealers are “expecting us to call them up and give them a $6,000 check for every new vehicle, they won’t get the call,” Marchionne joked recently in the Detroit Free Press.

A TTAC source asks us to perform the following mental exercise:

“Just imagine that you’re a car salesman and you come into work this morning. Your boss says we have a bunch of new incentive programs you need to learn. And here they are . . .”

We don’t have any numbers yet on GM’s 60 day money-back guarantee, but according to GM dealers speaking to Automotive News [sub] it’s not generating a lot of interest. “If [customers] like the car, if they test drive the car, most of the people would rather have a car to keep,” explains one dealer. Which makes a certain amount of sense, and which is why dealers insist that the number of buyers taking GM up on the offer doesn’t matter. “It’s more important to talk about the money-back guarantee. It conveys confidence in the vehicles,” says another dealer. “It’s not about the deal, but rather it’s about the world-class products.” That sounds good in principle, but the reality is that it actually is all about the deal. Again. Still.

UPI reports on recently-released documents which detail the extent to which states went to secure GM’s recent compact car manufacturing contract. Wisconsin had committed “$213.14 million in concessions from United Auto Workers Local 95, $100 million in Enterprise Zone tax credits and $24 million in discounts from health insurers and providers,” according to the report. Another $100M was added to the incentive package after Wisconsin officials learned that it was falling behind in the bidding, bringing the total package to $409M. Which wasn’t even close to enough to beat out Michigan’s winning bid, which totaled $1B.

But only because dealers will be forced to give up a half a percent of their profit margin, reports Automotive News [sub]. Good thing Mark LaNeve says volume will be higher. Otherwise that might suck for the dealers. As Bob Lutz puts it, “We’re putting our money down that if people buy one of our vehicles and don’t absolutely love it, we’ll take it back. Three or four years ago, this would have been a huge risk. We are now so confident of our vehicles, we can afford to take this risk.” Actually, Bob, it sounds like you’re putting the dealers’ money down. But, hey, at least that way it’s not taxpayer money! Who’s feeling positive?

General Motors has announced that it will lend dealers cash to cover their government clunker rebates for 30 days while the NHTSA figures out how to wind down the program. “We want to do all we can to provide customers with timely new vehicle deliveries and dealers the liquidity they need to run their businesses,” says Mark LaNeve in a company press release. “This will continue the sales momentum of our new fuel-efficient vehicles such as the Chevrolet Cobalt, Equinox and Buick Enclave.” Or, it could mean dealers will end up owing GM instead of the government owing them.

Would you believe that two-thirds of all car dealers are still waiting for their first clunker check? Could you imagine that only three percent of all clunker deals have been been blessed by NHTSA? Automotive News [sub] has the survey for you! The only problem is that AN admits the poll was unscientific. Plus, it was an online poll. Still, the headline looks good beneath a headline in which NADA admonishes that dealers are “at risk” in making further clunker deals. And NADA’s internal surveys show that all the clunker money is already gone, reinforcing the apocalyptic tone of the AN survey.

The Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers’ Senior Director of Communications has informed TTAC via email that the CARS (AKA “Cash for Clunkers”) program has NOT been suspended. “All deals concluded before a suspension is announced (if that happens) will be honored,” promises Charles Territo. We’ve also heard that the President is urging Americans NOT to not buy a new car (i.e., go ahead and buy a car) under the program over the weekend.

Er, bought. According to the Freep, the Michigan Economic Growth Authority put together the $779 million tax credit package which secured Orion Assembly’s future as the home of the Chevy Aveo’s replacement. A 25-year, 100 percent tax abatement from the municipality of Orion Township (worth some $100 million) didn’t hurt either. Nor did Oakland County’s $136.5 million in retraining money. GM will drop $600-$800 million retooling the plant, “saving” some 1,200 jobs at Orion and another 200 at nearby Pontiac Stamping. But this decision wasn’t a simple dollars-and-cents deal, according to the the parties involved. Oh, no.

Or is that regulatory purgatory? Automotive News [sub] screams “Dealers decide who gets discounts,” confirming that America’s very own scrappage scheme is not going to be the quick eco-nomic (geddit?) stimulus the fans predicted. Of course, AN was getting a bit histrionic; the headline was just their wacky way of explaining that NADA is advising dealers to wait for regulations to publicly endorse the deal. The big news is the regulations. Now that the congressional pomp is over, the folks behind Government Motors are finding that the incentive game isn’t always easy. In fact, “It’s complex and not like anything we’ve ever run before,” admits the NHTSA’s Rae Tyson. “We’re starting from scratch.” What could possibly go wrong?

Good afternoon,

I am responding on behalf of my colleague Bob Lesino [PR for the General Services Administration] and at this time we can’t provide any other information than what was in the press release.

Thank you.

MaryAnne

Gee, I wonder if this has anything to do with the country of origin for these vehicles . . . TTAC will now file a Freedom of Information Act request. Press release after the jump.

In a follow up to E. Niedermeyer’s previous post, details have emerged about the scheme to give rebates to buyers who trade “clunkers” for new, fuel-efficient vehicles. FT.com (Financial Times) reports that the program will cost taxpayers about $4 billion and will spur, according Brian Johnson, an analyst at Barclays Capital, the sale of 3 million units in the “near term” (whatever that means). With the US’ SAAR projected at approximately 9 million, this is a very optimistic prediction.

After crying that bankrupt automakers can’t sell cars (as in, “there but for the grace of the taxpayers go we”), Chrysler is requesting $753 million to do what it said was impossible. And who minds profit-draining record incentives when taxpayers are picking up the tab? Automotive News [sub] breaks down Chrysler’s request for $4.6 billion of DIP financing, and reveals that incentives are no longer just about moving metal.

In a recent interview with AutoObserver, Chrysler’s Jim Press tries desperately to state the case that somehow things could be worse at Auburn Hills. In the process he piles on the layers of denial that keep the smallest Detroit automaker senselessly hanging on. “It’s hard to say things are good when sales were only down 25 percent [retail],” press tells AO’s Michelle Krebs. “That’s terrible, but it’s less terrible than the industry decline of 40 percent.” It’s also less terrible than the 44 percent overall sales drop that ChryCo endured last month, but then the fact that Press only mentions retail sales kind of says it all. Especially considering he made AO’s editors include [retail] in his otherwise misleading (or is that self-deluding?) quote. But, “things aren’t so bad,” concludes Press. “At 80,000 vehicles sold in February, we’re doing OK.” Apparently we will know things are bad when Press starts lying about sales rather than pathologically misrepresenting them.

As Robert wrote earlier, GM is piling on the incentives to move metal in a January market that seems to be moving like molasses. And though GM and its finance units are benefiting from the largess of the federal bailout bonanza, their decision to delay incentive payments in December is putting the squeeze on its dealer network. Especially as they’re forcing dealers to buy more inventory in order to qualify for incentive cash. Automotive News [sub] reports that GM’s $4b loan “provided a short-term relief,” but “it didn’t fix the issue,” according to GM’s Mark LaNeve. La Neve tells AN that he isn’t planning on altering the incentive schedule. So, although payments have resumed, they are now two weeks behind schedule. And he doesn’t know when they’ll return to the normal schedule; it all depends on when tranche deux of the federal sugar shows up. Meanwhile…

The news is flying thick and fast out of Detroit this week, as the annual conclave at the don’t call it The Detroit Auto show puts hundreds of journalists in close proximity to corporate newsmakers and spinmeisters. Automotive News [AN, sub] is doing the do. First up: Toyota’s admission that its “Saved by Zero” didn’t save the automaker from a humiliating December; trucks sank by 50 percent and they lost critical U.S. market share. So ToMoCo’s reaching deeper into its deep pockets.”The shift that you’ll see in January from December is more consumer cash and less APR and lease support through our dealers,” Toyota USA Prez Jim Lentz told AN. Jimbo didn’t offer any specifics, but AN rightly points out that Priora are stacked up like cordwood. “One of the largest sellers of Priuses in the country, Earl Stewart Toyota in North Palm Beach now has about 70 on the lot that it can’t get rid of. ‘Any kind of Prius anybody wants — any color, any anything — I’ve got it,’ Stewart says. ‘And if I don’t have it I can get it because there are several hundred in the port. Dealers don’t want them.'” Note: “According to Edmunds.com, Toyota had the biggest percentage boost in incentive spending in December at an average $1,995 per sale. That was up 87 percent from what the brand spent in December 2007.” The implications of all this are pretty clear…

There’s an eerie thread of optimism weaving through a number of post-bailout, post-December bloodbath stories lately. Sure, hope dies last and all that, but as Studs Terkel put it, “hope has never trickled down, it has always sprung up.” And most of this fresh-faced optimism seems to have trickled down directly from GM PR. Take the headline “‘Happy Days’ Return For Domestic Car Dealers” over at Dealersedge.com, for example. If the use of scare quotes in the headline isn’t enough to set your PR-friendly hackery alarm ringing, well, that’s why we’re here. The entire piece is based on quotes from employees and owners of three dealerships, two in New Hampshire, one in Michigan. These ecstatic, old-timey song-referencing folks spout anecdotal evidence of a new influx of floor traffic, offering no dissent from the opinion that “happy days” are indeed here again. And why wouldn’t they say that zero percent terms on Trailblazers and Saabs have Americans flooding the showrooms?

An eye-watering death scent surrounds Chrysler going into this week. With a last-ditch bailout likely to focus on GM, and even the hometown cheerleaders kicking around the idea of throwing ChryCo in the volcano, Auburn Hills has all but given up on trying to staunch the flow of bad news. Of all the Chrysler-related bad news, nothing jumps out like the persistent rumors of Pentastar dealers offering two-for-one deals on Auburn Hills Iron. We first heard of this happening in the UK with overstock Avengers, but the phenomenon is spreading to the states. Automotive News [sub] reports that If you buy a 2008 Dakota for $27,590 at Bettenhausen Dodge in Tinley Park, Ill, Mr Bettenhausen will throw in a lightly-used 08 PT Cruiser for your trouble. “The automotive business is no longer about how much money you can make,” says the Bettenhausen. “It’s about minimizing losses. We need to get ourselves to a breakeven point in this challenging market.” Especially when Chrysler’s right there to twist the knife. Automotive News [sub] reveals that the Chrysler Sales Bank is back to plague dealers with yet more inventory they can’t sell and don’t want.