Category: Grade The Analysts

By on January 5, 2012

Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds again is the clear winner of the December round of Grade The Analysts. She won by hitting the official SAAR (13.65) close enough. She really won by making the highest precision forecast for the Detroit Three. Caldwell also is the undisputed winner of four months of Grade The Analyst, winning her the coveted “TTAC  11” (a.k.a. “The Top Analyst Crown 2011”). Read More >

By on December 2, 2011

November was a rough month on our analysts. The surprisingly strong showing of Chrysler threw everybody’s aim off. Real-time powered Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds takes the top spot again – but with a degree of precision that would have landed her back in the field in the preceding months. She won because the others did worse. Read More >

By on November 1, 2011

US Car sales are up a solid 10 percent in October, and Automotive News [sub] has the October Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) at 13.26 million. I need to hop on a plane to Tokyo, so I go with this number for the time being.  13.26 is pretty much the average of our analyst guesses. As for the Detroit 3, General Motors disappointed at 2 percent (and threw the analysts off), Ford and Chrysler came in as expected at 6 and 27 percent respectively. And how did our analysts fare? Read More >

By on November 1, 2011
Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR
George Magliano (IHS Automotive)  NA NA  NA 12.9
Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) 5.5% 4.1% 24.0% 13.0
Itay Michaeli (Citigroup)  NA NA  NA 13.1
Jeff Schuster (J.D. Power)  NA NA  NA 13.1
Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) 7.2% 7.5% 20.0% 13.2
Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan) NA NA  NA 13.2
Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs) 8.7% 6.5% 35.0% 13.2
Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley) NA NA  NA 13.3
Brian Johnson (Barclays) 4.3% 8.8% 19.0% 13.3
Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) 7.1% 1.8% NA 13.3
Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)  NA NA  NA 13.4
Jesse Toprak ( 4.7% 7.4% 33.0% 13.4
Jessica Caldwell ( 6.9% 8.0% 27.0% 13.4
Seth Weber (RBC) 9.2% 8.6% 36.0% 13.4
Average 6.7% 6.6% 28.0% 13.2

Today, October new car sales will be announced, and they are expected to be good. Analysts polled by Bloomberg show rare unity: They expect a Seasonally Adjusted Average Rate of sales (SAAR)  of 13.2 million on average, and the spread is only 500,000. Likewise, analysts agree that Ford and GM will each add around 6 percent in sales, whereas Chrysler will jump by around 28 percent. Read More >

By on October 3, 2011

US car sales rose a solid 10 percent in September to a little over one million. The seasonally adjusted annual rate is reported as 13.1 million by Autodata.General Motors is up 20 percent, Chrysler shot up 27 percent, Ford brought up the rear with a 9 percent gain. And how did our analysts fare? Read More >

By on September 2, 2011


This is round two of TTAC’s “Grade The Analysts”. Last time, we graded only on how closely analysts hit the SAAR number (table provided by Bloomberg.). If we would have done this this time, all would have received an A or better. The guesses were THAT close. The overall SAAR  for August was 12.1 million, and none of the analysts did bet on less than 11.9 or better than 12.3. Instead of giving them all gold stars, we made it a bit more interesting. Read More >

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