Minivan Market Share Plunged During America's Pandemic-induced Second-quarter Auto Sales Collapse

Timothy Cain
by Timothy Cain

“How bad is it? And how bad is it going to be?”

Those were our questions five months ago when describing the American minivan category’s paltry 408,982 sales in calendar year 2019. At that time, the rate of decline experienced by the segment suggested that, “America won’t even acquire 300,000 minivans next year.”

Enter novel coronavirus and, consequently, a second-quarter in which auto sales in the United States tumbled by a third. For perspective, that’s 1.5 million fewer sales between April and June of 2020 than during the equivalent period one year earlier.

Meanwhile, as quarantines and lockdowns and isolations and shutdowns caused new vehicle demand to shrink, the previously beloved minivan segment saw its share of the U.S. market absolutely crater.

1.5 percent.

One. Point. Five. Per. Cent.

Only 15 out of every 1,000 new vehicles sold in the second-quarter of 2020 were vans: Chrysler Pacifica, Dodge Grand Caravans, Honda Odysseys, Kia Sedonas, or Toyota Siennas. That was down nearly a full percentage point from Q1; down more than a full percentage point year-over-year.

Put another way, that disastrous loss of market share was caused by a 61-percent year-over-year drop in van sales, a decline equal to nearly 70,000 lost sales.

There were contributing factors beyond COVID-19’s onslaught. The Dodge Grand Caravan, America’s top-selling van at both this time last year and in 2020’s opening quarter, ended production to make way for the eventual Chrysler Voyager. Toyota unveiled its fourth-generation Toyota Sienna – a hybrid-only effort – and began winding down the third-gen van that achieved real success over the course of a decade. Due in part to these two transitions, the Dodge/Toyota duo combined to shed some 48,000 of the segment’s 70,000 lost sales.

Yet regardless of specific vehicular implications, the buyers simply disappeared. They disappeared at a faster rate than they’ve been disappearing – and yes, they’ve been disappearing for a while. And they disappeared nearly twice as fast as they did across the rest of the market.

Pouring symbolic salt into the wound, the Ford Explorer on its own narrowly pipped the entire minivan segment in 2020’s second-quarter. One year earlier, as the new Explorer struggled to wind up and minivan sales were only approaching the outer rim of the toilet bowl, minivan volume was nearly three times stronger than Ford Explorer volume.

Now, the category produces just 1.5 percent of the overall industry’s sales, roughly in line with:

  • Toyota Tacoma: 1.7 percent
  • Subaru Forester: 1.6 percent
  • Jeep Grand Cherokee: 1.6 percent
  • Honda Accord: 1.4 percent
  • Toyota Corolla: 1.4 percent

For every Pacifica, Grand Caravan, Odyssey, Sedona, or Sienna sold in America in 2020’s second-quarter, American car shoppers drove home in 1.9 Toyota RAV4s (how bad do you feel for the people who only get one-tenth of a RAV4?). BMW, despite sliding more rapidly than the industry at large, is now outselling America’s minivan segment. So is Mazda, Lexus, and Mercedes-Benz.

Minivan market share is now just half what it was in 2016. Combining the changing tastes of America’s pro-crossover shoppers with the disastrous impact of the pandemic, 300,000 minivan units in 2021 seems like an expectation gone too far. At this rate, Americans might not drive home in 250,000 minivans in 2020.

Can an SUV-ified Kia Sedona, a hybrid/AWD Toyota Sienna, and a Chrysler Voyager swing the pendulum back in 2021?

[Images: Fiat Chrysler, Toyota, Kia]

Timothy Cain is a contributing analyst at The Truth About Cars and Driving.ca and the founder and former editor of GoodCarBadCar.net. Follow on Twitter @timcaincars and Instagram.

Timothy Cain
Timothy Cain

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  • ToolGuy ToolGuy on Jul 23, 2020

    The stylists are "sedaning" the minivan to death. (Because of longer product cycles, it is taking longer to kill.) They (evil stylists) are gunning for trucks next. [Sounds crazy, I know.]

  • Avnut Avnut on Jul 27, 2020

    Minivan sales are down, but checking Carvana (on 7/27/20) for them, under Toyota Sienna, there are 36 for sale with 26 pending for sale. For Honda Odyssey, there are 50 for sale with 47 pending for sale. For Kia Sedona, there are 15 for sale with 13 pending for sale. For Dodge Grand Caravan, there are 177 for sale with 89 pending for sale. For Chrysler Pacifica, there are 57 for sale with 50 pending for sale. People may not want them new, they do seem to like them used though. Myself, give me a minivan any day over some CUV/SUV, unless I truly need a "truck".

  • Lorenzo Well, it was never an off-roader, much less a military vehicle, so let the people with too much money play make believe.
  • EBFlex The best gift would have been a huge bonfire of all the fak mustangs in inventory and shutting down the factory that makes them.Heck, nobody would even have to risk life and limb starting the fire, just park em close together and wait for the super environmentally friendly EV fire to commence.
  • Varezhka Of all the countries to complain about WTO rules violation, especially that related to battery business…
  • Carson D At 1:24 AM, the voyage data recorder (VDR) stopped recording the vessel’s system data, but it was able to continue taping audio. At 1:26 AM, the VDR resumed recording vessel system data. Three minutes later, the Dali collided with the bridge. Nothing suspicious at all. Let's go get some booster shots!
  • Darren Mertz Where's the heater control? Where's the Radio control? Where the bloody speedometer?? In a menu I suppose. How safe is that??? Volvo....
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