Study Says Autonomous Taxis Will Cost Users More Than Car Ownership

Matt Posky
by Matt Posky

When Sir Thomas More coined the term “utopia,” he lifted two words from Ancient Greek that roughly translate into “not a place.” Turns out people from the 16th century still understood satire, perhaps better than we do today. After all, we are the ones operating under the assumption that we can remap society in order to build consequence-free transportation network without a shred of humor to keep us grounded.

We may not need satire in this instance, however. A new study published in the American Journal of Public Health asks questions about how just effectively the shift to autonomy will benefit society as a whole. Industry leaders have broadly framed the shift toward self-driving as kicking down the door to an idyllic universe where no one wants for transportation, with autonomous taxis serving as the first wave of this planned paradise. The reality may be vastly different that what’s being sold, however.

The study essentially asserts that the entire concept of robotic cabs doesn’t actually serve poor communities any better than just buying one’s own automobile. Researchers compared the costs of a robo-taxi trip with those of owning a conventional used vehicle in an urban environment. Tabulating the combined costs of vehicle financing, licensing, insurance, routine maintenance, fuel/electricity and everything else they could account for, the team estimated that self-driving taxis would cost a minimum of $1.58 per mile. By contrast, the total cost associated with traditional vehicle ownership (assuming one is trying to be thrifty) ended up being 52 cents per mile. At least, that was the case for their model in San Francisco.

While your author has long suspected that unsupervised robotic taxis might outpace the subway as one of the dirtiest ways to get around (and become potential liabilities for whoever operates them), the general assumption has been that they’ll offer societal and health benefits that vastly outperform private vehicle ownership — almost as if the people making these assessments have never taken a regular cab or piloted an inner-city ZipCar. Other presumed benefits involve improved air quality by making it easier for people to get by without an automobile of their own.

But this thinking comes with some problems. Studies have already shown that ride-hailing firms exacerbate congestion by having a fleet of cars constantly scouring the streets in search of fares. That interim period between riders wastes energy and will be broadly similar when/if autonomous vehicles arrive. Why should we believe they’ll be any different when they’ll be similarly competing for riders and milling around neighborhoods? Even if they’re entirely electric, that energy has to be sourced from somewhere, and much of it will be in service of nothing.

Meanwhile, that thing you have parked in the garage isn’t hurting anybody until you start it up. Yet you can still rationalize autonomous taxis if you think a little outside the box. Consider how frequently poorer people find themselves skipping a chance to seek medical attention or taking a trip to do something that might better their overall situation. Computer-controlled cabs were supposed to help with that, as well. But the study is only getting warmed up with its bubble bursting.

“Even with universal health care, poor people are disproportionately less likely to access health care, because they can’t get there,” Ashley Nunes, one of the study’s authors, told Automotive News in an interview. “There’s been hope that this technology can be used to narrow the gap in health disparity. We find it can’t.”

Modern-day autonomous shuttles have proven themselves similarly problematic, including those trying to accomplish exactly what Nunes is talking about. Most of those efforts were supported by the cities in which they operate, propped up by government grants. Self-driving cabs probably won’t be, and that means companies may have to charge unpleasant prices for the service.

“The real promise of AVs is safe, affordable mobility on demand,” Nunes continued. “That’s the true promise. But is it safe? Safe for whom? Affordable for whom? That was the goal of this particular study. If we give poor people this shuttle, will it be OK? What’s equitable about pooling their rides? Nobody wants to pool a ride, let’s be upfront about that.”

The team actually has a secondary paper that asks these questions with highly similar conclusions. However, it’s less concerned with the social justice aspects of ride-sharing and more of the practicalities of keeping those programs widely available. Nunes and partner Kristen D. Hernandez suggest that capacity utilization rates for AVs would be extremely low at the price levels necessary to turn a profit. The only way to get ridership anywhere near the maximum (thereby wasting less energy and ensuring the public is better served) and make some money is to see the whole program subsidized by the government.

[Image: Sundry Photography/Shutterstock]

Matt Posky
Matt Posky

A staunch consumer advocate tracking industry trends and regulation. Before joining TTAC, Matt spent a decade working for marketing and research firms based in NYC. Clients included several of the world’s largest automakers, global tire brands, and aftermarket part suppliers. Dissatisfied with the corporate world and resentful of having to wear suits everyday, he pivoted to writing about cars. Since then, that man has become an ardent supporter of the right-to-repair movement, been interviewed on the auto industry by national radio broadcasts, driven more rental cars than anyone ever should, participated in amateur rallying events, and received the requisite minimum training as sanctioned by the SCCA. Handy with a wrench, Matt grew up surrounded by Detroit auto workers and managed to get a pizza delivery job before he was legally eligible. He later found himself driving box trucks through Manhattan, guaranteeing future sympathy for actual truckers. He continues to conduct research pertaining to the automotive sector as an independent contractor and has since moved back to his native Michigan, closer to where the cars are born. A contrarian, Matt claims to prefer understeer — stating that front and all-wheel drive vehicles cater best to his driving style.

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  • Lorih59 Lorih59 on Jun 23, 2020

    I own a 2002 eclipse spyder with close to 200,000 mi on it. The car runs great! I have owned eclipses from every generation. Bring back the fun to drive cars and sales will go up!

  • MKizzy MKizzy on Jun 23, 2020

    Autonomous vehicles would be great for providing,on-demand mobility for the elderly, injured, or disabled as a superior and safer option than public transportation. For the rest of us? Not so much. The idea of summoning a driverless vehicle and waiting even 2 minutes for your hopefully right sized and potentially germ filled conveyance to arrive and take you where you need to go at the posted speed limit is more than many of us would tolerate on a day-by-day basis.

  • Ajla On the Mach-E, I still don't like it but my understanding is that it helps allow Ford to continue offering a V8 in the Mustang and F-150. Considering Dodge and Ram jumped off a cliff into 6-cylinder land there's probably some credibility to that story.
  • Ajla If I was Ford I would just troll Stellantis at all times.
  • Ronin It's one thing to stay tried and true to loyal past customers; you'll ensure a stream of revenue from your installed base- maybe every several years or so.It's another to attract net-new customers, who are dazzled by so many other attractive offerings that have more cargo capacity than that high-floored 4-Runner bed, and are not so scrunched in scrunchy front seats.Like with the FJ Cruiser: don't bother to update it, thereby saving money while explaining customers like it that way, all the way into oblivion. Not recognizing some customers like to actually have right rear visibility in their SUVs.
  • MaintenanceCosts It's not a Benz or a Jag / it's a 5-0 with a rag /And I don't wanna brag / but I could never be stag
  • 3-On-The-Tree Son has a 2016 Mustang GT 5.0 and I have a 2009 C6 Corvette LS3 6spd. And on paper they are pretty close.
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