By on May 22, 2020

Hertz Global Holdings Inc. has been in discussions with creditors in the hopes of making a deal that addresses its missed debt payments and gives the company further leeway. Rental agencies are struggling, with Hertz in the roughest shape of all. All thanks to a certain virus, business has dried up, and Hertz finds itself  sitting on a pile of quickly depreciating cars it cannot afford to replace. The company’s stock also plummeted at the end of February — going from $20.29 per share to today’s $2.86.

The rental agency has until Friday to negotiate an extended forbearance agreement or drop $400 million in lease payments, but news has surfaced that lenders think Hertz declaring bankruptcy may be just as good a solution. 

According to Automotive News, inside sources claim the rental agency has reached an impasse with creditors. While business will probably rebound eventually, it’s looking as though Hertz will need to be kept on life support until contagion fears subside for that to happen. This offers little assurance to those interested in a prompt payday. Forcing the outfit to sell off its assets (a fleet of over 750,000 relatively new automobiles) now seems the probable outcome.

From Automotive News:

An uptick in used-vehicle prices from dismal levels seen in March and April have given [asset-backed securities] holders less incentive to extend the forbearance period for Hertz a second time, the people said. Back in April, lenders were more willing to be lenient to avoid selling the vehicles backing the ABS into a deeply depressed market.

Prices of used vehicles hit bottom the week ending April 19, down more than 15 percent from where they were prior to government shutdown orders, according to market researcher J.D. Power. But by the end of the first week of May, prices were down less than 10 percent.

Still, any liquidation scenario does pose a risk to bondholders. Selling off cars quickly can help maximize the value of assets that rapidly depreciate, but flooding the market with too many cars depresses prices.

[Image: vieninsweden/Shutterstock]

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100 Comments on “Hertz Hits a Wall With Creditors...”


  • avatar
    EBFlex

    The usual clan of ill informed, hysterical people will love this news. It proves that the vast majority of people are mindless sheep and not traveling or renting cars due to an illness that has a 99.983% survival rate.

    • 0 avatar
      Mike Beranek

      We won’t know the mortality rate until this is all over. Right now, we have an incomplete death count and a lackluster testing strategy, and there is no credible information on exactly how many have contracted it and how many have died of it.
      Given that we are currently losing American lives at a rate of three 747 crashes per day, and we are at a plateau in terms of the rate of spread, it seems to me that the “mindless” thing to do would be to travel. Each additional trip raises the risk level for both the traveler and the public at large.
      But hey, really cheap 2017 Nissan Altimas!

      • 0 avatar
        thelaine

        A University of Oxford professor who produced a competing model to the apocalyptic Imperial College model said there’s a chance that doing nothing would’ve been a more effective COVID-19 response than the various lockdowns implemented around the world.

        Ditch the fake news ==> Click here to get news you can trust sent right to your inbox. It’s free!
        During an interview on UnHerd, Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology at Oxford, said the virus is on its way out in the United Kingdom, and the true infection fatality rate is likely extremely low.

        “I think the epidemic has largely come and is on its way out in this country so I think it would definitely be less than 1 in 1,000 (0.1%) and probably closer to 1 in 10,000 (0.01%),” Gupta said.

        Gupta is opposed to the lockdowns, pointing out that the coronavirus outbreak has followed similar patterns in different countries with different lockdown policies.

        “In almost every context we’ve seen the epidemic grow, turn around and die away — almost like clockwork,” Gupta told UnHerd. “Different countries have had different lockdown policies, and yet what we’ve observed is almost a uniform pattern of behavior which is highly consistent with the SIR model. To me that suggests that much of the driving force here was due to the build-up of immunity. I think that’s a more parsimonious explanation than one which requires in every country for lockdown (or various degrees of lockdown, including no lockdown) to have had the same effect.”

        She blamed government overreaction from the worst-case scenario projections from the Imperial College model, which showed the potential for 500,000 deaths in the U.K. and more than 2 million in the United States.

        “I think there’s a chance we might have done better by doing nothing at all,” Gupta said. “Or at least by doing something different, which would have been to pay attention to protecting the vulnerable, to have thought about protecting the vulnerable 30 or 40 years ago when we started cutting hospital beds. The roots of this go a long, long way back.”

      • 0 avatar
        Oberkanone

        @Mike Nissan is not in the 5 for supplying vehicles to Hertz.

        567,000 vehicles Hertz USA fleet.
        GM 21%
        FCA 18%
        Ford 12%
        Kia 10%
        Toyota 9%
        Nissan 7%
        Hyundai 5%

    • 0 avatar
      FreedMike

      Awwwwww…look at EB and his endless search for attention. So cute.

      • 0 avatar
        EBFlex

        “ Awwwwww…look at EB and his endless search for attention. So cute.”

        Yep and you replied. The control I have is astounding. But sad I can’t make you and the other ill informed hysterics give up this lockdown loving behavior.

        • 0 avatar
          thelaine

          “The negative consequences of large-scale quarantine are so extreme (forced confinement of sick people with the well; complete restriction of movement of large populations; difficulty in getting critical supplies, medicines, and food to people inside the quarantine zone) that this mitigation measure should be eliminated from serious consideration.” ~Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, Nov. 4, 2006

      • 0 avatar
        thelaine

        Most people are more likely to wind up six feet under because of almost anything else under the sun other than COVID-19.

        The CDC just came out with a report that should be earth-shattering to the narrative of the political class, yet it will go into the thick pile of vital data and information about the virus that is not getting out to the public. For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%. Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% — almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.

      • 0 avatar
        RHD

        Russian trollbots are cute?

    • 0 avatar
      ravenuer

      Hey easter bunny, why don’t you go rent a car and drive it till you get to the end of the Earth. Then keep going.

      • 0 avatar
        thelaine

        Until now, we have been ridiculed for thinking the death rate was that low, as opposed to the 3.4% estimate of the World Health Organization, which helped drive the panic and the lockdowns. Now the CDC is agreeing to the lower rate in plain ink.

        Plus, ultimately we might find out that the IFR is even lower because numerous studies and hard counts of confined populations have shown a much higher percentage of asymptomatic cases. Simply adjusting for a 50% asymptomatic rate would drop their fatality rate to 0.2% – exactly the rate of fatality Dr. John Ionnidis of Stanford University projected.

        More importantly, the overall death rate is meaningless because the numbers are so lopsided. Given that at least half of the deaths were in nursing homes, a back-of-the-envelope estimate would show that the infection fatality rate for non-nursing home residents would only be 0.1% or 1 in 1,000. And that includes people of all ages and all health statuses outside of nursing homes. Since nearly all of the deaths are those with comorbidities.

        The CDC estimates the death rate from COVID-19 for those under 50 is 1 in 5,000 for those with symptoms, which would be 1 in 6,725 overall, but again, almost all those who die have specific comorbidities or underlying conditions. Those without them are more likely to die in a car accident. And schoolchildren, whose lives, mental health, and education we are destroying, are more likely to get struck by lightning.

    • 0 avatar

      Dear EBFlex,

      Most people rent cars because they want to or need to, not to help corporation to achieve its quarterly goals. But if you think this way then go rent – they all yours.

      Sincerely,
      Looking From Inside Out a.k.a. The Soul in the Machine

    • 0 avatar
      thelaine

      It’s now settled fact, based on reams of data from nearly every Western country, that lockdowns do not work. In fact, given that most countries implemented them long after peak transmission of the virus, they likely created mini breeding grounds by locking down more family members together indoors for an extended period of time. Now J.P. Morgan researchers have released data analysis that demonstrates what we have seen in Georgia, Florida, and so many other states: states that ended the lockdown earlier fared better.

      Yesterday, CNBC reporter Carl Quintanilla posted diagrams prepared by J.P. Morgan plotting the rate of infection by state for those that eased restrictions. Contrary to predictions by the media, who seem to have a religious faith in lockdowns, the numbers have actually gone down in nearly all those states.

      As J.P. Morgan concluded in its analysis, “In the absence of conclusive data, these lockdowns were justified initially.” But “millions of lives were being destroyed … with little consideration that [lockdowns] might not only cause economic devastation but potentially more deaths than COVID-19 itself.” The entire purpose of lockdowns in late March was just to ensure that the hospitals weren’t overrun. Not only was it extended for too long, but this goal could have been accomplished without arbitrarily shutting down all businesses, schools, and church services, but just by suspending large public events and stadium gatherings of adults, along with simple health guidance that is actually rooted in science, not control.

      Finally, we can’t ignore the nursing homes as the 800-pound gorilla in the room. Now that we know in most U.S. states and countries like Italy and Spain that suffered bad outcomes, the clear majority of all deaths were in nursing homes, it changes the entire perspective. These are the same countries that had the insane idea of placing COVID-19 patients into nursing homes. Countries like Germany and Israel didn’t do that.

      In Germany, for example, just one-third of deaths were in nursing homes, whereas in Spain and Italy, it was 57% and 53% respectively. That is where the lion’s share of deaths are, which is why, for so many reasons, you can’t simply analyze the top-line fatality numbers in a vacuum for a virus that attacks so heterogeneously.

      Imagine if more of our states would have followed the lead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp by securing the nursing homes rather than infecting them and then using that self-imposed tragic outcome as a pretext to remake America as we know it.

    • 0 avatar
      thelaine

      The shocking inflation of COVID-19 death numbers: From day one, we were warned that states are ascribing every single death of anyone who happens to test positive for the coronavirus — even if they are asymptomatic — to the virus rather than the clear cause of death. Now, thanks to a lawsuit in Colorado, the state was forced to revise its death count down by 23 % over the weekend — from 1,150 to 878. The state is now publishing numbers of deaths “with” COVID-19 separate from deaths “from” COVID-19. As I reported on Thursday, county officials started accusing the state’s department of health of reclassifying deaths of those who tested positive for the virus but died of things like alcohol poisoning as COVID-19 deaths just to insidiously inflate the numbers. This revision in Colorado is a bombshell story that, of course, will remain unknown to most Americans. Every state needs to do this, and if they did, we would find an across-the-board drop in numbers by at least 25%, the same %age by which Dr. Birx reportedly believes the count is being inflated, according to the Washington Post. For example, in Minnesota, state officials are now admitting that every single person who dies in a nursing home after testing positive is now deemed to have died from the virus, never mind the fact that 25% of all natural deaths in a given week occur in nursing homes and that most cases of COVID-19 are asymptomatic, which means more often than not, they died exclusively of other causes.

    • 0 avatar
      thelaine

      Excess deaths are from the lockdowns, not the virus: While there is zero evidence that lockdowns saved any lives of coronavirus patients, there is clear evidence they cost other lives. It has been observed in a number of states that there are excess deaths being detected, primarily from people dying at home. The CDC is predicting 21,462-40,097 excess deaths NOT due to COVID-19, likely from those too scared to come to the ER because of the exaggerated risk being associated with COVID-19. Also, a recent analysis of excess deaths in England shows that they are seeing thousands of people dying at home from other symptoms because of the lockdown.

  • avatar
    gasser

    EBFlex, you may want to rethink the Corona virus risks involved. As someone who has practiced medicine for over 45 years, and who has several physician relatives in the front lines, you are wrong. Ask the families of those whose bodies lie in the overflow temporary morgues in major cities, like NYC.
    As to Hertz, IDK how they plan to pay down their loans. It seems that they could survive, at a smaller size, geared to less business travel, if they got a big finance package. However, their fleet is a rapidly depreciating asset. I doubt that flushing 550,000 vehicles into the U.S used car market over a few short months will make the holders of their asset backed securities come out anywhere close to even. I don’t even foresee the current auction system being able to funnel this number of vehicles, plus the usual number of trade ins, into used car lots. In my area the lots are currently close to full.

    • 0 avatar
      Shockrave Flash Has Crashed

      If you get this, the hospitalization is high, current estimate is 10%. You are not allowed visitors during your hospital stay. The average stay costs $75,000. I don’t know about you, but my deductible is $8,000, and that’s if no out of plan doctor so much as walks by the room. Keep in mind that it’s not like Wile E. Coyote, you don’t just brush the dust off on go about your life. You will need rehab, lots and lots of rehab. There is likely lung, kidney and heart damage.

    • 0 avatar
      EBFlex

      “ EBFlex, you may want to rethink the Corona virus risks involved. As someone who has practiced medicine for over 45 years, and who has several physician relatives in the front lines, you are wrong. Ask the families of those whose bodies lie in the overflow temporary morgues in major cities, like NYC“

      Yes New York is a wonderful example. Let’s stuff old people (the highest risk) who have COVID in old folks homes with other old people who don’t. I can’t see any issue with that.

      And frankly I don’t care how many years you’ve practiced. When you’re wrong, you’re wrong. There are many many doctors and healthcare providers that see this for what it is…a hysterical reaction to something which we know nothing about and are using junk data to drive policy. It’s that simple.

      Someone with covid gets hit by a train and dies. That’s marked as a covid death. It’s ridiculous. Couple that with the vastly higher infection rate and it’s clear that the true mortality rate is far less than reported. And that’s coming from doctors.

      • 0 avatar
        Arthur Dailey

        @EBTovarich; Isn’t it very late in your time zone. Very convincing telling a medical doctor that you know more than him/her. And then stating that ‘many people, somebody, a friend’ have told you something. Yep right out of the White House press conference playbook.

        The fact is that the vast majority of trained professionals think that what you are posting is dangerously ill informed. For example read the letter from the Yale University epidemiologist below.

        • 0 avatar
          Lie2me

          I have a feeling that EB spends most of his time trying to convince others that he knows more then they do. The results being a snicker and an eye-roll the minute he walks away

        • 0 avatar
          thelaine

          However, whether we go with a top-line IFR of 0.2%, 0.6%, or even the 0.9% of the Imperial College projection, it fails to account for the most salient characteristic of this virus – that its threat is extremely lopsided. In most countries and states, more than half of all deaths are in nursing homes, and in some states, upwards of 70 percent are – with many of the decedents having already been placed in hospice or end-of-life care. Most of the deaths are tragically within a tiny cohort of the population with a 5%-10% IFR, which is 25-50 times higher than the median.

          Take Pennsylvania, for example. Roughly 68 percent of all deaths statewide occurred in nursing homes. At the same time, 58 percent of all deaths were among those over 80 and 70 percent were over 75. In fact, there were more deaths over age 95 (a rare slice of the population) than those under age 60. So how many of those over 75 or 80 who died were outside nursing homes? No state has published such data, but if you do the math and assume that most of the nursing homes deaths were among seniors (a pretty solid assumption), it means that more than 90% of senior deaths were in nursing homes. Thus, the fatality rate even for seniors outside nursing homes is dramatically lower than the top-line numbers suggest.

          As I’ve noted before, the nursing homes have appallingly high numbers because of several factors, including a likely overcount of the numbers, the disastrous decision to send positive patients back into the senior homes, and the fact that the median stay of anyone who dies in any nursing homes is just five months. Most seniors outside these homes, while facing an elevated risk over younger people, are much better off than those in these facilities.

          What about those younger than 60 or 65? Their death rate is so remarkably low that the risk does not rise above the level of any normal daily activity. In fact, in Sweden, the number of all-cause deaths for those under 65 from mid-February through April was actually down slightly over the past few weeks. And Sweden didn’t implement a lockdown

      • 0 avatar
        thelaine

        Outside nursing homes, the fatality rate never warranted such action, even if it would work: Every day we find more hard data showing that the overwhelming majority of cases are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic, and outside nursing homes, the chance of dying is very low and very limited to a population we can more efficiently shield. For those who are younger and healthier, deaths are almost nonexistent. Spain was one of the hardest-hit countries and has a higher overall fatality rate than others, yet its age-stratified fatality rates mirror what we have seen in the Netherlands, Denmark, France, and elsewhere. One Twitter commentator has broken down the age-based fatality rates of the comprehensive Spanish antibody study, and the results are similar to what we’ve seen elsewhere

    • 0 avatar
      thelaine

      Four infectious disease doctors in Canada estimate that the individual rate of death from COVID-19 for people under 65 years of age is six per million people, or 0.0006 per cent – 1 in 166,666, which is “roughly equivalent to the risk of dying from a motor vehicle accident during the same time period.” These numbers are for Canada, which did have fewer deaths per capita than the U.S.; however, if you take New York City and its surrounding counties out of the equation, the two countries are pretty much the same. Also, remember, so much of the death is associated with the suicidal political decisions of certain states and countries to place COVID-19 patients in nursing homes. An astounding 62 percent of all COVID-19 deaths were in the six states confirmed to have done this, even though they only compose 18 percent of the national population.

      We destroyed our entire country and suspended democracy all for a lie, and these people perpetrated the unscientific degree of panic. Will they ever admit the grave consequences of their error?

      • 0 avatar
        RHD

        1) Our entire country is not destroyed.

        2) Democracy is not suspended.

        • 0 avatar
          thelaine

          Four infectious disease doctors in Canada estimate that the individual rate of death from COVID-19 for people under 65 years of age is six per million people, or 0.0006 per cent – 1 in 166,666, which is “roughly equivalent to the risk of dying from a motor vehicle accident during the same time period.” These numbers are for Canada, which did have fewer deaths per capita than the U.S.; however, if you take New York City and its surrounding counties out of the equation, the two countries are pretty much the same. Also, remember, so much of the death is associated with the suicidal political decisions of certain states and countries to place COVID-19 patients in nursing homes. An astounding 62 percent of all COVID-19 deaths were in the six states confirmed to have done this, even though they only compose 18 percent of the national population.

          • 0 avatar
            Lou_BC

            “Four infectious disease doctors in Canada”

            Four…..4…..Four

            If you consider that there are 10 provinces, 3 territories and then the federal government, that means there are 14 “lead” Epidemiologists that do not agree.

          • 0 avatar
            Lou_BC

            “Four infectious disease doctors in Canada”

            Four…..4…..Four

            If you consider that there are 10 provinces, 3 territories and then the federal government, that means there are 14 “lead” Epidemiologists that do not agree.

          • 0 avatar
            thelaine

            Prove it, Lou. Quote them, saying these numbers are wrong.

        • 0 avatar
          thelaine

          The current CDC numbers for coronavirus mortality rates, broken down by age group, are as follows:

          0-49 years old: .05%
          50-64 years old: .2%
          65+ years old: 1.3%
          Overall ages: .4%
          The rate drops further because the CDC’s .4% estimate is based on symptomatic cases (which comprise 65% of all cases). When they factor in asymptomatic cases, the figure drops to .26%.

          When, and if, we start to conduct large scale antibody testing, that number will continue to drop.

          • 0 avatar
            Lou_BC

            @theloon – It is obvious that you are an !diot!

            Those numbers you posted from Canada are calculated based on the **CURRENT** situation.

            YOU POSTED THE PROOF THAT RESTRICTIONS WORK!

            “The death rate from influenza in Canada is 500 to 1500 cases per year.”

            To Date: 6,424 COVID-19 deaths from the disease in Canada.

            SARS-CoV-2 is currently 4 times more lethal than the flu.

            It isn’t hard to prove you wrong. The proof often is in the cut and paste you make.

            Spamming a site doesn’t make you correct!

    • 0 avatar
      thelaine

      To begin with, the media and politicians are still promoting high overall infection fatality rates (IFR), such as the World Health Organization’s estimate of 3.4%. But we’ve seen enough random sampling from serological antibody tests, corroborated by hard data from prisons and navy ships, to demonstrate that the virus spread earlier, wider, and more asymptomatically than previously thought, thereby driving the fatality rate much lower. A new analysis averaging all the major antibody tests indicates that the average overall fatality rate (including nursing home deaths) is 0.2%. Why have our policies not been updated to reflect that reality?

      This week, Dr. John P.A. Ioannidis published a preprint (before peer review) analysis averaging the fatality rates reflected in the extrapolation of all the serology tests with a sample size larger than 500 and that were randomly sampled (as opposed to health care workers). These tests measure the seroprevalence – the prevalence of antibodies for the virus in a given population – through some degree of random sampling.

      Based on these random samples, the Stanford professor of medicine, epidemiology, biomedical data science, and statistics concluded that the fatality rate ranges from 0.02% to 0.40%. That is a range of seven times less deadly or 2.8 times more deadly than seasonal influenza.

      The mean IFR is 0.2%, right around the result we saw from the first U.S. serology studies in Santa Clara, Los Angeles, and Miami Dade Counties. That is 17 times less deadly than what the World Health Organization originally predicted and 4.5 times less deadly than the Imperial College study assumed!

      The study included data from 12 antibody tests conducted in different countries, from the U.S. and Brazil to China, Japan, Iran, and several European countries. They collectively show that the virus is exponentially more prevalent, often presenting asymptomatically, than the confirmed case tally indicates. Ioannidis further notes that most of these surveys likely understate the number of infections (and therefore overstate the fatality rate) because several of them were of blood plasma donors, who tend to be healthier people.

      Also, the virus seems to be particularly widespread in nursing homes, in prisons, and among disadvantaged minorities, which Ioannidis believes were underrepresented in these samples. He noted that this was especially true in the Santa Clara study conducted by his Stanford colleagues, which seemed to disproportionately attract wealthy volunteers.

      Nonetheless, he concludes:

      Interestingly, despite their differences in design, execution, and analysis, most studies provide IFR point estimates that are within a relatively narrow range. Seven of the 12 inferred IFRs are in the range 0.07 to 0.20 (corrected IFR of 0.06 to 0.16) which are similar to IFR values of seasonal influenza. Three values are modestly higher (corrected IFR of 0.25-0.40 in Gangelt, Geneva, and Wuhan) and two are modestly lower than this range (corrected IFR of 0.02-0.03 in Kobe and Oise).

    • 0 avatar
      thelaine

      The steep curve of an economic nuclear winter

      No words, charts, or data can capture the unconscionable degree of economic depression that the lockdown has triggered. 36 million people have filed for unemployment, but that doesn’t begin to quantify the true number who lost their jobs but aren’t reflected in the unemployment filings, or who had their hours cut back. That is closer to 30% of all workers and well above that for low-income earners. Just the full job losses alone are 40% of households earning under $40,000.

      Just as of now, a minimum of 100,000 small businesses have been permanently destroyed, and the market distortions created by the depression will likely destroy most other small businesses in most industries in favor of the big conglomerates that benefit from the government’s fiscal and monetary policies. Roughly half of all small businesses will be out of cash within a month.

      Wow, this worked out so well, why didn’t anyone think of something like a lockdown in all our history? Well, as Anthony Fauci himself said in an interview during the 2009 swine flu epidemic, “You can’t isolate yourself from the rest of the world for the whole flu season, but use some good judgment.” Now we know why.

  • avatar
    APaGttH

    I’m gonna get f***** out of $2200 if they go BK. Couldn’t happen to a nicer company.

    Short version.

    Rented car traveling.

    They put a deposit on the card.

    Returned vehicle full tank, undamaged, and clean, have all paperwork to support/prove. No tickets or other issues.

    Got a receipt for the final amount show deposit released.

    Deposit never refunded.

    AX billing me for deposit.

    Called Hertz.

    No response kept calling with case number kept being told give us 24 to 48 hours.

    On day 28 filed dispute with American Express.

    Almost 2-1/2 months later Hertz acknowledges that they should refund my deposit but is refusing to pay back AX.

    I’m stuck in the middle.

    AX reopened the dispute.

    Hertz can go bankrupt for all I care at this feckin’ point.

  • avatar
    Arthur Dailey

    I have not rented from Hertz in decades. Primarily use Enterprise or my Zipcar membership.

    What I wonder about is the business model in the USA. Here in Canada we pay up to 5x more for car rentals than in the USA.

    • 0 avatar
      Maymar

      Rental business in Canada is much more seasonal than the US (the Maritimes in particular have most of their business between Victoria Day and Labour Day). I believe most companies roughly double their fleet between the low and high points yearly, which means a fair bit more depreciation expense. On the other hand, it meant the Canadian divisions we’re probably more right-sized already.

      • 0 avatar
        thelaine

        The nation’s economy is on track to drop by more than 30% in the second quarter. Unemployment is well into the double digits. Half of small businesses might close in the next six months. All for naught, it would appear, giving the growing pile of evidence that the economic lockdowns didn’t work.

        The latest evidence comes from a report out of JP Morgan Chase & Co. this week. It finds that there’s been no increase in cases or deaths as other nations and U.S. states start reopening. This flies directly in the face of all the public health expert predictions of a major spike once people started moving about.

        “Virtually everywhere, infection rates have declined after reopening, even after allowing for an appropriate measurement lag,” says the report’s author, Marko Kolanovic, a quantitative strategist at JPMorgan. “This means that the pandemic and COVID-19 likely have (their) own dynamics unrelated to often inconsistent lockdown measures that were being implemented.”

        Another research paper released in early May, this one by Thomas A. J. Meunier of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, found that the lockdowns in western Europe had no evident impact on the epidemic.

        “Comparing the trajectory of the epidemic before and after the lockdown, we find no evidence of any discontinuity in the growth rate, doubling time, and reproduction number trends,” Meunier says.

        In the United Kingdom, the disease reached its peak on April 8, which, given the way it progresses, means the peak infection was around March 18, according to Oxford University professor Carl Heneghan. That’s almost a week before the UK went into lockdown mode.

        Bloomberg’s Elaine He looked at the data from Europe, compared it with their different strategies to deal with the outbreak, and concluded that “there’s little correlation between the severity of a nation’s restrictions and whether it managed to curb excess fatalities.

        Meanwhile, India’s massive lockdown – the largest in the world – is coming under attack for being ineffective. India now has more than 100,000 confirmed cases and is seeing the fastest growth in South Asia.

        “There is no doubt in my mind that the lockdown has failed,” an epidemiologist who is a member of the Indian government’s coronavirus task force told The Caravan magazine. “Social distancing, wearing masks, and hand hygiene work. Together, these measures reduce the rate of transmission. However, to date, there is no evidence that lockdowns can cut down transmission.”

        And Sweden, which had come under harsh attack from public health experts for not imposing an all-out lockdown, is now being held up by the World Health Organization as a model for the future.

        Dr. Mike Ryan, the WHO’s top emergencies expert, said that “Sweden represents a model if we wish to get back to a society in which we don’t have lockdowns.”

        Instead of issuing stay-at-home orders and forced business closures, Ryan said Sweden “put in place a very strong public policy around social distancing, around caring and protecting people in long-term care facilities.”

        As we noted recently, Swedish infectious disease expert Johan Giesecke, writing in the medical journal Lancet, says “It has become clear that a hard lockdown does not protect old and frail people living in care homes — a population the lockdown was designed to protect. Neither does it decrease mortality from COVID-19, which is evident when comparing the United Kingdom’s experience with that of other European countries.”

        We also pointed to a paper by Lyman Stone, an adjunct fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, which looked at the available evidence and concluded simply that “lockdowns don’t work.” Stone found the death rate climbing after the lockdowns went into effect in the U.S.

        Don’t expect anyone to admit they were wrong. The public health community – which has been peddling wildly exaggerated predictions of deaths – will never do so. Nor will Democrats and the press – which are committed to the narrative that every death in the U.S. is President Donald Trump’s fault. Trump isn’t likely to, either, since he agreed to shutting down the economy after he started taking his cues from public health doomsayers.

        This isn’t to say that no action was needed to cope with this uncharted virus. That’s not the argument any of these researchers are making. What they are saying is that the lockdowns weren’t based on sound science, and that far less intrusive measures would likely have been just as effective, if not more so, without destroying the economy.

        • 0 avatar
          Maymar

          Not on topic for this thread, thelaine. I’m sorry you’ve clearly been laid off, but seriously, get a f**King life. Take up a hobby, or jack off, or something?

          Also, you’re pretty incapable of admitting when you’ve been wrong.

          • 0 avatar
            thelaine

            Maymar

            Take up reading as a hobby. You might learn something.

          • 0 avatar
            honda1

            @Maymar
            Clearly you are one of those libtards that want the country to stay shut down. You said “get a f**king life”, we have lives, we need to go out and live them. Everyone know why you libtards want the country to stay shut down and it is not going to work. Now go back to your room and carry on playing.

          • 0 avatar
            FORDSHO

            I agree with you, Maymar. Sad, saad, saddddd losers these other guys are. Then their continuous replies like it’s going to offend us/you or upset someone else like we’ll be so BOTHERED. “Libtards.” Yes, that’s exactly it. How original. hahaha.

          • 0 avatar
            RHD

            Anyone who uses the term “libtard” automatically classifies themself as a person with no credibility, poor judgement and high gullibility.

          • 0 avatar
            Lou_BC

            “Also, you’re pretty incapable of admitting when you’ve been wrong.”

            @theloon fits the profile of those on the fringes of the right. Psychological profiling shows that Trumpoid simians score high on disagreeableness.”

            “Disagreeable individuals place self-interest above getting along with others. They are generally unconcerned with others’ well-being, and are less likely to extend themselves for other people. Sometimes their skepticism about others’ motives causes them to be suspicious, unfriendly, and uncooperative.”

            Or MEK’s Albanian camp just threw in some virgins while they are still on earth!

  • avatar
    Arthur Dailey

    Posted here for ‘pandemic deniers’. Sorry to everyone else. And I am pretty sure that those I am addressing are not interested in reading the entire posting.

    Jonathan Smith, a lecturer in epidemiology at Yale University, is completing his PhD in epidemiology at Emory University. His research focuses specifically on differential transmissibility of infectious diseases under various population-level and individual-level control measures.

    “As an infectious disease epidemiologist, at this point I feel morally obligated to provide some information on what we are seeing from a transmission dynamic perspective and how they apply to the social distancing measures. Like any good scientist I have noticed two things that are either not being articulated or not present in the “literature” of social media. I have also relied on my much smarter infectious disease epidemiologist friends for peer review of this post; any edits are from that peer review. “Specifically, I want to make two aspects of these measures very clear and unambiguous. “First, we are in the beginning of this epidemic’s trajectory. That means even with these distancing measures we will see cases and deaths continue to rise globally, nationally, and in our own communities in the coming weeks. This may lead some people to think that the social distancing measures are not working. They are. They may feel futile. They aren’t. You will feel discouraged. You should. This is normal in chaos. But this is normal epidemic trajectory. Stay calm. This enemy that we are facing is very good at what it does; we are not failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the epidemic inevitably gets worse. “This is not my opinion; this is the unforgiving math of epidemics for which I and my colleagues have dedicated our lives to understanding with great nuance, and this disease is no exception. I want to help the community brace for this impact. Stay strong and with solidarity knowing with absolute certainty that what you are doing is saving lives, even as people begin getting sick and dying. You may feel like giving in. Don’t. “Second, although social distancing measures have been (at least temporarily) well-received, there is an obvious-but-overlooked phenomenon when considering groups (i.e. families) in transmission dynamics. While social distancing decreases contact with members of society, it typically increases your contacts with family members / very close friends. This small and obvious fact has surprisingly profound implications on disease transmission dynamics. Study after study demonstrates that even if there is only a little bit of connection between groups (i.e. social dinners, playdates/playgrounds, etc.), the epidemic isn’t much different than if there was no measure in place. The same underlying fundamentals of disease transmission apply, and the result is that the community is left with all of the social and economic disruption but very little public health benefit. “You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit; if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in the unit is at risk. Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming geometric speed. If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son’s girlfriend’s mother shook hands with. This sounds silly, it’s not. This is not a joke or a hypothetical. We as epidemiologists see it borne out in the data time and time again and no one listens. Conversely, any break in that chain breaks disease transmission along that whole chain. “In contrast to hand-washing and other personal measures, social distancing measures are not about individuals, they are about societies working in unison. These measures also take a long time to see the results. It is hard (even for me) to conceptualize how on a population level, ‘one quick little get together’ can undermine the entire framework of a public health intervention, but it does. I promise you it does. I promise. I promise. I promise. “You can’t cheat it. People are already itching to cheat on the social distancing precautions just a “little”- a playdate, a haircut, or picking up a needless item at the store, etc. From a transmission dynamics standpoint, this very quickly recreates a highly connected social network that undermines all of the work the community has done so far. “Until we get a viable vaccine this unprecedented outbreak will not be overcome in one grand, sweeping gesture, rather only by the collection of individual choices our community makes in the coming months. This virus is unforgiving to choices outside the rules. “My goal in writing this is to prevent communities from getting ‘sucker-punched’ by what the epidemiological community knows will happen in the coming weeks. It will be easy to be drawn to the idea that what we are doing isn’t working and become paralyzed by fear, or to just‘cheat’ a little bit in the coming weeks. By knowing what to expect, and knowing the importance of maintaining these measures , my hope is to encourage continued community spirit, strategizing, and action to persevere in this time of uncertainty.”

    https://www.wbur.org/cognoscenti/2020/04/03/hold-the-line-coronavirus-jonathan-smith

    • 0 avatar
      monkeydelmagico

      Too late. Even the most stringent states are buckling under the pressure to restart their economies. You know when the governors are yapping about reopening bars, dine in restaurants,and gyms that it’s game over for anyone who hasn’t caught this bug yet.

      The hospitals are ready this time for at least a threefold larger surge capacity. Bring it.

    • 0 avatar
      ajla

      I don’t think he’s wrong but I don’t think his prescription is realistic either. People are going to see family & friend in person at some point over the next year. Everyone will have a breaking point, even Dr.Smith. I personally don’t think I’ll be able to hold through the end of the year with the level of isolation I’ve taken on since March.

      Just for a more direct example Neil Ferguson with the Imperial College almost certainly understood everything you posted but he *still* broke stay-at-home order to go have sex with his married girlfriend.

      The human desire for togetherness is going to win out over Covid-19 fears for nearly everyone at some point. And it probably will make things worse, but that’s how it’s going to be.

      • 0 avatar
        Arthur Dailey

        @Ajla, Yes unfortunately I do believe that you are correct.

        • 0 avatar
          thelaine

          Outside New York, this is barely worse than bad flu seasons: While Europe is opening its schools, almost every U.S. state continues to keep schools shut. Yet according to the CDC’s latest weekly report, “For children (0-17 years), COVID-19 hospitalization rates are much lower than influenza hospitalization rates at comparable time points during recent influenza seasons.” Even the World Health Organization’s top scientist just admitted that children “seem less capable of spreading the virus.” As for everyone else, if you look at the bump in overall deaths for most states (outside the tristate area), they are either at, slightly below, or slight above the 2018 flu season. But at this point, everything is way below a typical flu season in the winter, yet you wouldn’t know it from listening to the media. According to the CDC, hospitalizations and deaths have been declining in all 10 designated regions for the past 3-7 weeks. Still, we are now being more fascist that even Italy in violating civil rights.

        • 0 avatar
          thelaine

          At an April 23 press conference, Gov. Andrew Cuomo sounded indignant when a reporter asked if anyone had objected to New York’s policy of forcing nursing homes to admit recently discharged COVID-19 patients.

          “They don’t have the right to object,” Cuomo answered before the reporter finished his question. “That is the rule, and that is the regulation, and they have to comply with it.”

          New York isn’t the only state to adopt a policy ordering long-term care facilities to admit COVID-19-infected patients discharged from hospitals. New Jersey, Massachusetts, and California—three states also hit particularly hard by the novel coronavirus—passed similar policies to free up hospital beds to make room for sicker patients.

          The practice is coming under increased scrutiny by health experts and family members of deceased patients who say the orders needlessly put the most susceptible populations at risk.

          “The whole thing has just been handled awfully … by everybody in regard to nursing homes,” said Kathleen Cole, a nurse who recently lost her 89-year-old mother who lived at Ferncliff Nursing Home in Rhinebeck, New York. “It’s like a slaughterhouse at these places.”

          Cole, who shared her story with the Bucks County Courier Times, told the paper her mother, Dolores McGoldrick, became infected with COVID-19 on April 2 after Ferncliff re-admitted a resident who had been discharged in late March. Two weeks later her mother, a former school teacher, was dead.

          McGoldrick is one of nearly five thousand COVID-19 victims who died in New York nursing homes, according to new figures from The New York Times. New York’s high nursing home death toll is not an outlier. California recently released data showing that some 40 percent of California’s COVID-19 fatalities have come from eldercare homes. In Pennsylvania, nursing homes account for 65 percent of COVID-19 deaths. Both states, like New York, had orders in place that required nursing homes to admit recently released COVID-19 patients.

          These results are not surprising to some. Health experts and trade associations had warned early on that forcing nursing homes to take on newly discharged COVID-19 patients was a recipe for disaster, noting that such facilities didn’t have the ability to properly quarantine the infected.

          “This approach will introduce the highly contagious virus into more nursing homes. There will be more hospitalizations for nursing home residents who need ventilator care and ultimately, a higher number of deaths. Issuing such an order is a mistake and there is a better solution,” American Health Care Association President and CEO Mark Parkinson announced in March after New York’s order went into effect.

          David Grabowski, a professor of health policy at Harvard Medical School, sounded incredulous when asked about the policy.

          “Nursing homes are working so hard to keep the virus out, and now we’re going to be introducing new COVID-positive patients?” Grabowski told NBC.

          Richard Mollot, executive director of the Long Term Care Community Coalition in New York, echoed that sentiment.

          “To have a mandate that nursing homes accept COVID-19 patients has put many people in grave danger,” Mollot told the Bucks County Courier Times.

          The question, of course, is why states began ordering nursing homes to take in COVID-19 infected residents. The one thing we know of COVID-19, and have known from the beginning, is that the virus is particularly deadly for the elderly and people with compromised immune systems

    • 0 avatar
      EBFlex

      “ Posted here for ‘pandemic deniers’. Sorry to everyone else. And I am pretty sure that those I am addressing are not interested in reading the entire posting.”

      Not one single person on this site is a denier. I think you meant to post that somewhere else.

      But since you mistakenly posted it here, where are his sources? Where is the peer review? Where’s the supporting documents vetting him and the institution he works for? What are his sources?

      • 0 avatar
        Arthur Dailey

        Sure, you know more than someone teaching epidemiology at Yale. Have you never been told that when you dig yourself into a hole you should stop digging? But you should be happy, I understand that St Petersburg is beautiful this time of year.

    • 0 avatar
      thelaine

      The overwhelming majority of those who are at risk are not in the workforce, and the majority of them are already somewhat “locked down” in senior care facilities. We could have shielded them much more effectively with a healthy economy and hospital system with staff and cash from performing other procedures. Yet rather than learn from this simple data, mayors are pre-emptively canceling all summer events and colleges are altering schedules even for the fall!

      The refusal of our government and media to more broadly publicize this information, broken down by age group, is going to accelerate the disproportionate degree of panic. This has real consequences for many other patients who are too scared to seek medical care because they wrongly fear death by COVID-19 more than their existing dangerous illness.

      In the coming days, the public will be utterly shocked by how deeply we were lied to about the underlying premise and threat assessment behind the lockdown.

    • 0 avatar
      thelaine

      The steep curve of stroke deaths

      Doctors from Stanford University and the Washington University School of Medicine posted an analysis last week of a neuroimaging database that show a 40% drop in stroke evaluation since the shutdown. This is due to a mix of the mandatory delays in “elective” procedures as well as the inordinate degree of panic that scared people away from clinics and hospitals, particularly those with signs of the onset of a stroke. Approximately 140,000 Americans die every year from strokes, and one has to wonder not only how many have needlessly died but how many others will lose years of their lives from not catching these symptoms earlier.

      The steep curve of heart attacks

      Some ERs have seen a 50% drop in heart patients. There is no logical reason why the number of heart problems should have declined, because, if anything, the stress of the crisis would trigger more hypertension. Just like with stroke patients, it’s likely that many people are too scared to come to ERs, which are seeing an across-the-board steep decline in patients, as much as 50%-60% in some hospitals in Hawaii (which only had seven total COVID-19 deaths), out of unfounded fear of catching the virus and dying.

      One of two things is true: The missing heart attack deaths are manifested in the excess deaths we are seeing at home in many states, or they are really being wrongly coded as COVID-19 deaths, which would be another example of how the panic over the lethality of the virus is overstated. In King County, Washington, commensurate with a 25% drop in 911 calls is a 10% increase in EMTs discovering people dead at home. Again, our government and media are scaring people to death with this disproportionate response to the virus and exaggerating the risk to an individual vs. other health care needs.

      The steep curve of missing organ transplants

      The number of living organ donor transplants dropped by 90% during the peak of the lockdown. Has Dr. Fauci modeled how many people have died or will die early as a result of it?

      The steep curve of missed cancer diagnoses

      One study found that screening and monitoring tests for breast, prostate, colorectal, cervical, and lung cancer were down 39% to 90% and estimated a 20% drop in overall interaction between cancer patients and oncologists. As such, QVIA Institute for Human Data Science estimates that 80,000 cancer diagnosis will be missed. Given that the difference between curable or operable cancer is often a matter of weeks, that alone could cost tens of thousand of lives or millions of life years. University College London predicts an excess of 33,000 cancer deaths in the U.S.

      The steep curve of maternal and child deaths

      In the irony of all ironies, a new comprehensive study funded by Johns Hopkins and the Gates Foundation, two of the staunchest proponents of lockdown, show that in the least severe scenario “over 6 months would result in 253,500 additional child deaths and 12,200 additional maternal deaths” due to reduced access to food and health care, vaccinations, and child care – all caused by the lockdown and disproportionate panic. They estimate a steep cost of lives for pregnant women and young children under all scenarios.

      As my colleague at the TheBlaze reported, in New York, a 26-year-old pregnant woman died of a rare liver condition as the baby was born because she was denied access to maternity health care that would have caught her dropping platelet levels before the birth. In general, New York City has seen 5,000 excess deaths that were not due to the coronavirus. They likely were due to the panic that led to missed care or people too scared to get treated.

      Additionally, a report published Tuesday in the Lancet Global Health journal found that child mortality globally could rise for the first time in 60 years thanks to the shutdown of health care and food supply chains.

      Also, due to the disruption in health care, there will likely be millions more dead in the coming years from AIDS, TB, and malaria, according to one estimate, although this would mainly affect third-world countries, not the U.S. However, some estimate that 80 percent of four-month-olds in the U.S. are not current on vaccines, and the number of MMR vaccines has dropped by 60 percent.

      The steep curve of the mental health crisis of isolation, financial ruin, and panic

      According to one study, an extra 75,000 are at risk of dying due to substance abuse or suicide. Also, a hotline run by the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services saw a 1,000% increase in calls during April. Based on an extrapolation of one Swiss study, we could see up to 6.9 million Americans lose an average of nearly 10 years of their lives due to the mental health crisis. None of this even takes into account the increased mental health and suicides from financial ruin.

      The steep curve of an economic nuclear winter

      No words, charts, or data can capture the unconscionable degree of economic depression that the lockdown has triggered. 36 million people have filed for unemployment, but that doesn’t begin to quantify the true number who lost their jobs but aren’t reflected in the unemployment filings, or who had their hours cut back. That is closer to 30% of all workers and well above that for low-income earners. Just the full job losses alone are 40% of households earning under $40,000.

      Just as of now, a minimum of 100,000 small businesses have been permanently destroyed, and the market distortions created by the depression will likely destroy most other small businesses in most industries in favor of the big conglomerates that benefit from the government’s fiscal and monetary policies. Roughly half of all small businesses will be out of cash within a month.

      Wow, this worked out so well, why didn’t anyone think of something like a lockdown in all our history? Well, as Anthony Fauci himself said in an interview during the 2009 swine flu epidemic, “You can’t isolate yourself from the rest of the world for the whole flu season, but use some good judgment.” Now we know why.

      • 0 avatar
        RHD

        Since this isn’t really the global catastrophe that it’s made out to be, why don’t you put your money where your mouth is, and volunteer to help out at a local convalescent hospital?
        You might catch a minor cold, maybe, but it’s not really a big deal, is it?

        • 0 avatar
          thelaine

          The overwhelming majority of those who are at risk are not in the workforce, and the majority of them are already somewhat “locked down” in senior care facilities. We could have shielded them much more effectively with a healthy economy and hospital system with staff and cash from performing other procedures. Yet rather than learn from this simple data, mayors are pre-emptively canceling all summer events and colleges are altering schedules even for the fall!

          The refusal of our government and media to more broadly publicize this information, broken down by age group, is going to accelerate the disproportionate degree of panic. This has real consequences for many other patients who are too scared to seek medical care because they wrongly fear death by COVID-19 more than their existing dangerous illness.

          In the coming days, the public will be utterly shocked by how deeply we were lied to about the underlying premise and threat assessment behind the lockdown.

        • 0 avatar
          thelaine

          “The negative consequences of large-scale quarantine are so extreme (forced confinement of sick people with the well; complete restriction of movement of large populations; difficulty in getting critical supplies, medicines, and food to people inside the quarantine zone) that this mitigation measure should be eliminated from serious consideration.” ~Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, Nov. 4, 2006

    • 0 avatar
      rpn453

      It is interesting to look back to old papers and articles to understand how deadly people – even experts – thought this covid situation might get.

      What does he say now; a month and a half later, when it’s obvious that these new strains of coronavirus are nowhere near as dangerous as they had feared, and considering almost every location is 30 days past their peak despite continuous contact between most of the healthy population?

      Hopefully they’re letting it go and acknowledging the reality so people might trust them if/when a truly serious pandemic comes along.

      • 0 avatar
        thelaine

        Amen, rpn.

      • 0 avatar
        N8iveVA

        rpn453: “Hopefully they’re letting it go and acknowledging the reality so people might trust them if/when a truly serious pandemic comes along.”

        While we are lucky this pandemic is no where near as deadly as the 1918 Spanish Flu, to act like this isn’t serious either shows your lack or humanity or your ignorance.

        • 0 avatar
          thelaine

          Who said it wasn’t serious?

          It’s the exaggeration and the resulting lockdown that are wrong.

          Read more carefully.

          “The negative consequences of large-scale quarantine are so extreme (forced confinement of sick people with the well; complete restriction of movement of large populations; difficulty in getting critical supplies, medicines, and food to people inside the quarantine zone) that this mitigation measure should be eliminated from serious consideration.” ~Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, Nov. 4, 2006

          • 0 avatar
            HotPotato

            1) That’s from 2006, so clearly they’re not referring to this pandemic.

            2) That’s not even remotely the measure that has been taken. We have pathetically weak restrictions, which a bunch of puckering rectal orifices delight in flouting every chance they get. Thanks to them, we get the downsides of restrictions without the benefits.

            3) Enough with your motivated reasoning, where you start with your politically-motivated conclusion and then root around for fringe characters who agree with it. Instead, how about you put the political crap aside, and follow the overwhelming consensus of the experts in the field.

          • 0 avatar
            thelaine

            If you read the posts, N8, you would see that you are wrong. The numbers are from the CDC.

          • 0 avatar
            thelaine

            HP,

            Is this a FRINGE character? Or is it just someone who disagrees with your politically-motivated conclusions? Why won’t you turn off the TV and look at the evidence?

            A University of Oxford professor who produced a competing model to the apocalyptic Imperial College model said there’s a chance that doing nothing would’ve been a more effective COVID-19 response than the various lockdowns implemented around the world.

            During an interview on UnHerd, Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology at Oxford, said the virus is on its way out in the United Kingdom, and the true infection fatality rate is likely extremely low.

            “I think the epidemic has largely come and is on its way out in this country so I think it would definitely be less than 1 in 1,000 (0.1%) and probably closer to 1 in 10,000 (0.01%),” Gupta said.

            Gupta is opposed to the lockdowns, pointing out that the coronavirus outbreak has followed similar patterns in different countries with different lockdown policies.

            “In almost every context we’ve seen the epidemic grow, turn around and die away — almost like clockwork,” Gupta told UnHerd. “Different countries have had different lockdown policies, and yet what we’ve observed is almost a uniform pattern of behavior which is highly consistent with the SIR model. To me that suggests that much of the driving force here was due to the build-up of immunity. I think that’s a more parsimonious explanation than one which requires in every country for lockdown (or various degrees of lockdown, including no lockdown) to have had the same effect.”

            She blamed government overreaction from the worst-case scenario projections from the Imperial College model, which showed the potential for 500,000 deaths in the U.K. and more than 2 million in the United States.

            “I think there’s a chance we might have done better by doing nothing at all,” Gupta said. “Or at least by doing something different, which would have been to pay attention to protecting the vulnerable, to have thought about protecting the vulnerable 30 or 40 years ago when we started cutting hospital beds. The roots of this go a long, long way back.”

  • avatar
    monkeydelmagico

    Creditor liquidation of the only asset the company holds. Dim 2 year outlook for the industry. No other revenue or income stream. Poof. Just like that.
    Gone.

    This will likely result in a consolidation of rental car companies. Might end up with only two. Enterprise and a company many have never heard of ….. Sixt.

    The loss of life is of foremost importance. Yet it bears watching the corporate death toll as well.

  • avatar
    eCurmudgeon

    And… Hertz just filed for bankruptcy:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-23/hertz-files-for-bankruptcy-after-rental-car-demand-vanishes

  • avatar
    APaGttH

    Bankrupt so says the news.

  • avatar
    randyinrocklin

    Hey EB, I’m with you all the way. The ignorant bastard lemmings all wearing their masks outdoors in the sunshine and in their cars are a bunch of ignorant idiots!

    • 0 avatar
      mcs

      @randyinrocklin: “The ignorant bastard lemmings all wearing their masks outdoors in the sunshine”

      Where I live in the Northeast, we get hit with clouds of green pollen. It’s everywhere. A lot of people here are wearing masks outdoors even in the heat because they seem to work well with the pollen.

      • 0 avatar
        randyinrocklin

        At least there are some sane reasons for masks, but I’m not sure it was a regular occurrence pre-COVID when the allergy season kicks in. Until silly BS came along.

        • 0 avatar
          mcs

          @randyinrocklin: “ut I’m not sure it was a regular occurrence pre-COVID”

          Oh, I agree. It wasn’t. In my case, when I saw the green clouds, I figured that since I had the mask, I’d give it a try. Worked out well. Especially on the bike when the tires are coated with it and spraying it up.

          In other situations, I’ve got a strong immune system and may have had a mild case back in March. Definitely was exposed in April, but never had symptoms. I’m not worried about catching it myself, but not sure about whether I can transmit it or not, so I’ll wear it in those situations. However, the other day when my buddy and I were pulling parts from the interior of a car in a junkyard in 95 degree heat. We weren’t worried about covid there, but there might have been more of an issue with the rodent droppings. But, neither of us wore a mask. Too hot and it wasn’t exactly a virus friendly place.

          I can’t speak for other people though. If I was more susceptable to it, I’m not sure what my mask wearing protocol would be, but I’d at least make sure I had a mask that defended me against breathing it in. No bandanas.

    • 0 avatar
      el scotto

      @ randyinrocklin It’s real simple where I work. The guards make sure everyone entering the campus wears a mask in and out and everyone working in the building wears a mask in and out. Don’t want to wear a mask? Go home.

  • avatar
    Arthur Dailey

    According to the article linked below from the May 22nd 2020 edition of Business Insider, nearly half of all twitter accounts advocating opening up the USA, belong to ‘bots’.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/nearly-half-of-reopen-america-twitter-accounts-are-bots-report-2020-5?fbclid=IwAR3uY3Vmu7-aoVNZVAFEkUFqN6DBhuGc-8VjndbJ52pe5lzj_e51Y3X9V-g

    • 0 avatar
      thelaine

      During an interview on UnHerd, Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology at Oxford, said the virus is on its way out in the United Kingdom, and the true infection fatality rate is likely extremely low.

      “I think the epidemic has largely come and is on its way out in this country so I think it would definitely be less than 1 in 1,000 (0.1%) and probably closer to 1 in 10,000 (0.01%),” Gupta said.

      Gupta is opposed to the lockdowns, pointing out that the coronavirus outbreak has followed similar patterns in different countries with different lockdown policies.

      “In almost every context we’ve seen the epidemic grow, turn around and die away — almost like clockwork,” Gupta told UnHerd. “Different countries have had different lockdown policies, and yet what we’ve observed is almost a uniform pattern of behavior which is highly consistent with the SIR model. To me that suggests that much of the driving force here was due to the build-up of immunity. I think that’s a more parsimonious explanation than one which requires in every country for lockdown (or various degrees of lockdown, including no lockdown) to have had the same effect.”

      She blamed government overreaction from the worst-case scenario projections from the Imperial College model, which showed the potential for 500,000 deaths in the U.K. and more than 2 million in the United States.

      “I think there’s a chance we might have done better by doing nothing at all,” Gupta said. “Or at least by doing something different, which would have been to pay attention to protecting the vulnerable, to have thought about protecting the vulnerable 30 or 40 years ago when we started cutting hospital beds. The roots of this go a long, long way back.”

  • avatar
    Arthur Dailey

    For those still in denial here is a link to the stats compiled by York Region, the municipality directly north of the City of Toronto. Note that those over the age of 65 account for only 34% of confirmed cases.

    https://www.york.ca/wps/portal/yorkhome/health/yr/covid-19/covid19inyorkregion/01covid19inyorkregion/!ut/p/z1/tZPbcpswEIafJRdcYi0nS_ROoa6B2NhN4gPcZDAWhxQjBys46dNXJHSm7ThOOylcCGln91_-TwuK0BpFVdwUWSwKXsWlPIfR8M6jY891r8CfmcQBCjPq65jAyNbQ6iUB3ngooOhv6s8kROfllyhC0T4ptijUDYZJYhMVg5WoZpwMVVvbbOVip5Ztp7HdyqEoqcRe5Ch8ru8SXglWCQWeef1NHg6iEI8vgZzvmFxZXIpcgYQ3xVbV7G6n2UXVVtQsk5gUAO1EGPnveZdw9XrqTDPpIBa5WlQpR-ufvbrdH6Lr072kVHH_8BBRaa_19CTQum9_qxbmrw7HN8QEb-ljutRmYHpGl6Dr5tDVHPDBnRHwvuC59Zm4GlzpXcKZ-5UQs5JvXkeRVhuDSFo1S1nN6sFjLcO5EPvDJwUUOB6Pg4zzrGSDhO8UOFWS84NE83smCuUQ4jdv6lpHq6ZgR7SoeL2TX3LzjzPnQtcBE4e6dAxzuF1g-DrCJhlOpvPJtfbBDu8Y6Fne6FUeQ7_yer_y_weO74Gj0fYfM0YGUN1zyKXhkyDol33QL_ugX_ZBv3O__Cic_W6x2BHDKjMibO_eKptJOh0ZZug33y8D9fwru7j4Af7j0Z4!/dz/d5/L2dBISEvZ0FBIS9nQSEh/#.Xslrr2hKjcd

  • avatar
    thelaine

    Outside New York, this is barely worse than bad flu seasons: While Europe is opening its schools, almost every U.S. state continues to keep schools shut. Yet according to the CDC’s latest weekly report, “For children (0-17 years), COVID-19 hospitalization rates are much lower than influenza hospitalization rates at comparable time points during recent influenza seasons.” Even the World Health Organization’s top scientist just admitted that children “seem less capable of spreading the virus.” As for everyone else, if you look at the bump in overall deaths for most states (outside the tristate area), they are either at, slightly below, or slight above the 2018 flu season. But at this point, everything is way below a typical flu season in the winter, yet you wouldn’t know it from listening to the media. According to the CDC, hospitalizations and deaths have been declining in all 10 designated regions for the past 3-7 weeks. Still, we are now being more fascist that even Italy in violating civil rights.

    • 0 avatar
      bkojote

      Doctor here. I’ve had to tend bedside at the COVID-19 wing at our hospital and have monitored hundreds of patients. You have absolutely no idea how bad this is- let me make this 100% clear you’re picking and choosing risk assessment facts to concoct a narrative that this is somehow the same risk as the flu and that is pure bullshit that risks putting people’s lives in danger.

      Our hospital (in a major metropolitan area in the midwest) was overloaded for 4 weeks with temporary structures outside. At least half a dozen deaths were individuals under 30 who were in good health – this virus can attack any organ in your body and the mortality rate is far, far, far higher than influenza.

      You are flinging absolute bullshit top to botttom here (while funny enough citing stats in your bad-faith argument that have proven the efficacy of social distancing restrictions.) You know absolutely nothing of what you’re talking about and you put the people whose livelihoods are to care for others and who slogged through their prime in medical school at risk.

    • 0 avatar
      Arthur Dailey

      Since you didn’t take the time to read my link, i will post some of the statistics from York Region which has done the best job of daily tracking.

      Positive tests by age. Over 65 is 34%. 54 to 64 is 17%. 45 to 54 is 17%. 35 to 44 is 11%. 20 to 34 is 18%. Under 20 is 3%.

      8% of those who tested positive had died. 3% are currently hospitalized.

      And positive cases in the Toronto area have risen over the past few days.

  • avatar
    JD-Shifty

    does anyone think for a minute that ring wing FOX news viewers care about depression and suicide due to covid 19? Lamest argument ever. They just like ginning up fools so their checks keep coming in.

  • avatar
    schmitt trigger

    It is both sad and surprising when a business related news becomes political.

    It usually takes at least 3 to 5 posts, but that this thread became so since the first post, hits a new record low.

    And we have to thank EBflex for dragging us into the mud pit.

  • avatar

    Mods, if any, can you shut down the politics ?

    Whether one is on the Trump Train or a Bernie Bro, this is a car site. This whole thread has almost zilch to do with Hertz. At some points the hits attracted will not be good ones, Reddit and Twitter are great places to vent one’s political spleen.

    Seriously, this is a car site. VerticalScope, you need to either do a better job with moderation OR change the site name to TTAP (the truth about politics)

    I’m here to discuss marketing, odd options, car maker stupidity, lust for sweet rides, and occasional trips into memory CAR lane….

    • 0 avatar
      Cactuar

      I am with you.
      Pretty terrible community.

      • 0 avatar
        multicam

        +1 to both of you. There was a time when I’d see 76+ comments on a TTAC article and think oh good, some spirited debate about the auto industry – this should be interesting! Now it’s just a wall of text re: global warming or COVID. I can get that anywhere. I don’t care what thelaine has to say about COVID and I don’t care about anyone’s smart comeback.

        What a decline in eight years.

        • 0 avatar
          Arthur Dailey

          Cash for clunkers, EPA requirements, government bailouts, licensing requirements, mandated safety equipment and standards, the ‘chicken tax’, traffic laws and law enforcement, regulations regarding importation of vehicles, OPEC, public transit, employment laws.

          Gee, did none of these exist 8 years ago? Did nobody write or comment about them? Vehicles, roads, government and politics go hand in glove and always have.

          • 0 avatar
            ajla

            Politics about transportation is one thing. Politics just for the sake of politics is another.
            And even on the past when political topics did come up, discussions were moderated (heavily so during the Farago and Ed N eras.). The comments sections is a cesspool now.

            But if this is the TTAC you want then have at it.

          • 0 avatar
            Arthur Dailey

            @Ajla, Perhaps there are so many postings regarding the pandemic, because this may be the defining event of our generation. Unless a vaccine is developed, the way that we work, shop, travel, care for our elderly, spend our free time, and even our life expectancy may all be permanently altered by this virus.

            Meanwhile automotive news is at an alltime low. I have 3 cars in the driveway, and haven’t purchased gas in just over 7 weeks.

          • 0 avatar
            ajla

            Like I said if this is the kind of TTAC you all want then go for it. It is a free internet.
            I don’t think Pandemic posts should be offlimits but I do think TTAC has let the topic drift way too far. I can find a place with a tighter scope and stronger moderation and the world will keep on spinning.

    • 0 avatar
      el scotto

      @ speedlaw More comments = Moar Money. Witness some who post four and five unanswered comments in a row. It keeps the comments counts high and looks good on a weekly spreadsheet/PowerPoint. The mods have been gone from the masthead for a few months? Executive decision? Cost cutting? I’d bet on both. I do realize,with irony, that I’m adding to the comment count.

      • 0 avatar
        Tim Healey

        The mods are still here! Adam and Corey are still doing the job. But it’s a long weekend and a lot of us have been away from our laptops. I only logged in after returning from a long drive to put miles on a test car because I saw an email about this. We’ll do what needs to be done.

    • 0 avatar
      ajla

      I agree. I think I’m going to step away from here for awhile. Tim and the mods (if they still exist) either have no authority or no desire to temper things. The result is the worst I’ve ever seen TTAC. I can find automotive news elsewhere for now.

      • 0 avatar
        Tim Healey

        Hi! We’re here, but as you no doubt know, it’s a long weekend. So we haven’t been monitoring the comments like we would on a normal weekday. I just got home from testing a car, myself. We do see the repetitive nature of these comments and we’re looking into it.

        We do try to get a lid on things normally, but we are all also busy. We’ll see what, if anything, needs to be done with this situation, and we’ll keep working to make sure the comments section stays clean.

    • 0 avatar
      Tim Healey

      We’re working on this. Keep in mind that this is a holiday weekend and most of the staff has been away from computers/devices.

  • avatar
    Lou_BC

    @Theloon is back at it again. The freedum fighter.

    Sunetra Gupta was basing his assumptions upon the idea that at least 50% of the population has been exposed to SARS-CoV-2. Sweden had assumed that at least 30% of their population has been exposed. Seroprevalence studies in Sweden show only 7.3% of the populace has been exposed.
    This link explains why Sweden’s approach won’t work in the USA.
    https://www.healthline.com/health-news/heres-what-happened-in-sweden-and-you-cant-compare-it-to-u-s#Sweden-not-untouched-by-COVID-19

    “In Sweden, 13 percent of adults have obesity and 6.9 percent have diabetes, while 40 percent of American adults have obesity and 9.1 percent have diabetes.”

    “Swedes have government-funded universal healthcare.
    Contrast this with the 29 percent of American adults who are underinsured and 13 percent who are uninsured. Many of these people have untreated chronic health conditions that put them at greater risk from COVID-19.”

    “The Swedish government even provides paid sick leave”

    “As a result, many Swedes voluntarily follow the COVID-19 guidelines put forth by their government.”

    “Björn Olsen, a professor of infectious medicine at Uppsala University (Sweden), said herd immunity was a “dangerous and unrealistic” approach. “I think herd immunity is a long way off, if we ever reach it,”

    “It’s now settled fact, based on reams of data from nearly every Western country, that lockdowns do not work. ”

    Trumpoid Dipsh!t Syndrome

    British Columbia has one of the the lowest COVID-19 death rates in North America.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-16/a-virus-epicenter-that-wasn-t-how-one-region-stemmed-the-deaths

    • 0 avatar
      Arthur Dailey

      @Lou; you can take a horse to water. It is acknowledged that the majority of Americans fall under the ‘compromised immunity’ guidelines. We Canadians remember all the comparisons between the health and lifestyle of a 60 year old Swede compared to a 30 year old North American.

      As you noted as well as lifestyles, the social safety net in Sweden is far different from in the USA. Demonstrating the decline of America, far fewer Swedes live ‘below the poverty line’. And all Swedes have access to government supplied/universal medical care.

      As to the efficacy of lockdowns. The 6 Nations of Grand River, locked down their territory and instituted tracking and since then have recorded zero cases of COVID infection. Proof that lockdowns do work, even in North America.

      • 0 avatar
        Lou_BC

        @Aurthur Daily – The most disturbing thought I have about all this is the possibility that @theloon isn’t a provocateur/troll but one of many who actually believes in what he posts. The USA Empire is not long of this world.

  • avatar
    el scotto

    When two people from your office building die from COVID-19, you take COVID-19 seriously. One was an avid runner, getting in at least one 10K a month. Those who post because they can’t go to Golden Corral and “muh four pieces of pie” get taken far less seriously.

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