QOTD: Which Sedan's Door Will the Grim Reaper Knock on Next?

None of us can predict the future, but just think of the penthouse-in-Dubai levels of cash that awaits us if we could. Alas, all we can do is follow existing trends and make a best guess.

In the automotive world, the fate of a car model lies at the intersection of sales, industry direction, and emerging technologies. SUVs and crossovers hang like a blade over the necks of all traditional passenger cars, and autonomous vehicles menace everything with a steering wheel. Electric motors threaten to turn the exhaust note into a distant memory. Governments and regulators stand in the shadows, eager to spring forth one day and spoil all of our internal combustion fun. In spite of all of these factors, there’s still bold predictions made every day about the future of the industry in five, 10, 20, 50 years.

Today, we’re asking you to peer into the Magic 8 Ball and make a prediction of your own. A very specific prediction, to be clear, and it only needs to involve one model: the next U.S.-market sedan to die.

If you say it’s either the Honda Accord or Toyota Camry, well, we know you’re just trolling. Stop it! Those models are quickly gobbling up market share in a shrinking sales pie. They’ll likely be around until the bitter end (when we’re all driving four-door SUV coupes).

Former sales champs have also taken a drubbing in recent months — among them, the newly refreshed Hyundai Sonata. Ford’s ever popular Fusion, the midsize pinnacle of engine choice, is also on its way down. Still, there’s enough volume to keep both of those models out of the cull category for some time.

Mazda has just redesigned its slinky (but hard-luck) 6, so there’s still life in that product. Perhaps we should look downmarket for the prime candidate? Ford plans to slash model configurations for future Focus sedans, but the move to build the compact in China for way less cost than before could give that model a new lease on life. If it’s still decently profitable, despite falling sales, why not keep it around for longer than planned? You know, go the FCA route.

Any member of Cadillac’s hard-luck sedan lineup doesn’t rate as a worthy answer, as we know there’s a changeover due after the 2019 model year. The nosediving ATS and CTS, along with the ancient (but still strong-selling) XTS, go into the blender that year, emerging as two wholly new models — each targeting a carefully chosen price bracket.

This author’s Magic 8 Ball doesn’t have all the answers. If it did, he’d have bought Bitcoin when it first came out, as well as some Canadian mail-order marijuana stock. Still, the Acura ILX — routinely ignored and riding on the previous-generation Civic’s platform — makes a good case for extinction. We haven’t heard any commitment to the model’s future from the folks at Acura. Adding to the suspicion is the special edition bowing for the 2018 model year.

If you listen carefully, you might just hear a swan song.

So, can you see the future? Remember, this isn’t a model you’d like to see killed; rather, it’s the next four-door sedan that will meet its maker. Name it.

[Image: Acura]