QOTD: Where Will Cadillac Be A Decade From Now?

qotd where will cadillac be a decade from now

Cadillac is in a curious state.

Many would rightly argue that Cadillac’s products are more competitive now than they’ve been in decades. Cadillac is making headway in China, a market which accounted for slightly more than half of Cadillac’s global volume in the first-quarter of 2017. Cadillac’s average U.S. transaction prices are also above the norm thanks in part to a high percentage of its sales being produced by the high-dollar Escalade.

But sales in Cadillac’s home market continue to slide. U.S. volume has fallen by a fifth over the last decade and has decreased in two of the last three years, falling to a four-year low in 2016. More recently, U.S. sales at Cadillac are down 5 percent in early 2017 after decreasing on a year-over-year basis in six of the last twelve months.

Long gone are the days when Cadillac could sell new vehicles in America at the same rate as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, or Lexus. Indeed, Cadillac is well back of Audi now, as well. To put an exclamation point on Cadillac’s difficulties, little ol’ Infiniti — also historically reliant on the U.S. market and rather weak globally — outsold Cadillac by a margin of more than 40 percent in March.

What’s next? Which brands will be outselling Cadillac in ten years, or even five, or even two?

What does the next decade hold for Cadillac?

Besides crossovers to slot in above and below the XT5, Cadillac’s most popular vehicle.

Besides increased strength in China.

Besides high-power V versions that stand in stark contrast to Cadillac’s historic mission.

How will Cadillac fare in the U.S. market in 2027? Or even in 2021?

In 2003, Cadillac was selling twice as many vehicles in the U.S. as Infiniti. Yet, while Cadillac’s focus on passenger cars is evident, with an expanding sedan portfolio, Infiniti’s headway has been made on the crossover side of the ledger where the brand’s five nameplates outsold the XT5, Escalade, and Escalade ESV by more than 6,700 units in 2017 Q1.

Infiniti isn’t the only premium brand attempting to take over territory in the United States while Cadillac struggles. Acura, with its own difficulties, isn’t far behind Cadillac. Lincoln is trending in the opposite direction, up 9 percent so far this year. Jaguar-Land Rover is up 21 percent in 2017 and is quickly catching up to Cadillac in total volume.

Today, Cadillac isn’t the top-selling luxury brand in America. It doesn’t rank second or third or fourth, either. Indeed, Cadillac isn’t even inside the top five now.

Where will Cadillac be a decade from now, or even five years from now? Behind Genesis, Maserati, and Alfa Romeo, too?

Timothy Cain is the founder of GoodCarBadCar.net, which obsesses over the free and frequent publication of U.S. and Canadian auto sales figures. Follow on Twitter @goodcarbadcar and on Facebook.

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  • Art Vandelay I am sure somewhere, somebody is saddened by this.
  • Dukeisduke It's becoming the norm for cats to be moved out of state for sale, and even out of the country. The thieves are looking for the easiest places to get rid of them, as laws tighten down in some places. Here in Texas, catalytic converter theft became a felony last September 1, so the stakes are going up.A couple months back, an off-duty Harris County (Houston) sheriff's deputy leaving a grocery store was murdered in the parking lot by a thief that was in the process of stealing the cat from his truck. As far as I know, they're still looking for the suspect, who would be charged with capital murder, and subject to the death penalty.
  • Dukeisduke Here's a real horror story: A friend of mine that's a commercial wallpaper installer owned an '09 Tundra, and had his cat stolen while he was working on a job in Dallas. He would normally have driven his work truck (an '03 Silverado with a zillion miles on it, and one engine replacement), but it was out of commission that day.At the end of the day when he got in the truck and started it, he noticed the noise, *and* saw smoke and flames. The thief had somehow cut or nicked the fuel line, causing gas to spray out. The truck burned to the ground in just a few minutes.He replaced it with a '19 Tundra, and the dealer installed a steel plate attached to the frame rails below the cats, and it's riveted (or maybe security bolts?) to the rails (I only saw it after dark, so I didn't get a really good look). He said the plate cost $750 to install. He says he'll never take the new one to work.
  • Dukeisduke I'll probably own some kind of EV someday, but I don't see it happening in the near future. Any kind of really large scale production is going to be hindered by the availability of rare earth minerals, so I don't see EVs taking over anytime soon, despite the wishful thinking of some folks. Instead, people in urban areas will be "encouraged" (shamed) into riding public transportation, and for people that live further out, or in the country, will still mainly drive ICE vehicles.I don't have anything against EVs, I just think the hype is overblown.Speaking of Dodge, I was watching the "Roadkill Nights" stream on Motortrend+ on Saturday, and Tim Kuniskis was interviewed live, and said there was a huge announce coming about the future of Dodge muscle, at the Woodward Cruise this weekend. I assume it'll be something about EVs. By the way, it was mentioned after the interview that Kuniskis started his career working as a service technician at a Dodge dealership. I'd never heard that before.
  • Dukeisduke I'd like to see some kind of two-door pickup version (like the original Bronco, not a Gladiator clone). The one on the recent Dirt Every Day episode made a pretty decent crawler. I like the steelies on this one.
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