Midsize Sedan Deathwatch #8: It Got Downright Ugly In January 2017

The Suzuki Kizashi‘s brief tenure came to an end in 2013. 2014 was the last year Mitsubishi produced Galant sales in the United States. 2015 marked the Dodge Avenger’s terminus. The Chrysler 200’s death was announced in 2016.

Will 2017 be a period of further contraction in America’s midsize sedan market?

This is the eighth edition of TTAC’s Midsize Sedan Deathwatch. The midsize sedan as we know it — “midsizedus sedanicus” in the original latin — isn’t going anywhere any time soon, but the ongoing sales contraction will result in a reduction of mainstream intermediate sedans in the U.S. market.

How do we know? It already has.

If January 2017’s results are anything to go by, it’s going to be a very ugly year for midsize cars in the United States; sales tumbled by more than a fifth in January 2017, a year-over-year decline worth 30,000 lost sales.

Bucking the trend, however, were the two most obvious candidates for extinction, the Mazda 6 and Volkswagen Passat. Every other midsize nameplate on sale in America reported harsh declines.

There were a number of guideposts in January that clarified just how poor a month it was for America’s midsize car category.

• January marked the tenth consecutive month of year-over-year decline; only August’s 26-percent drop was worse than January’s.
• It’s not merely a “car” problem. The overall industry declined by just 2 percent; the passenger car market was down 13 percent. The midsize car category was down by a much more noteworthy 21 percent.
• Only 10 percent of the new vehicles sold in January were midsize cars, down from 15 percent in calendar year 2014.
• In 2016, the midsize sedan category lost an average of 21,000 sales per month. In January 2017, the lowest-volume month on the calendar with the least potential for decreased volume, sales fell by 30,000 units.
• Sales of the best-selling Toyota Camry fell to a six-year low, the second-ranked Honda Accord reported a five-year low, the Nissan Altima was at its lowest point since April 2011, Ford Fusion sales slid to a 50-month low, the Chevrolet Malibu fell into four-digit territory for the first time since October 2012, and the Hyundai Sonata plunged to an 83-month low.

Granted, Volkswagen Passat sales improved. Passat volume jumped 64 percent to 5,887 units. But that year-over-year Passat uptick must be placed in context. At this point last year, Passat sales were in the toilet. Better historical context is provided by previous Januarys. In the first month of 2017, Passat volume was down 7 percent compared with January 2015, down 6 percent compared with January 2014, and 34 percent compared with January 2013.

The Mazda 6, meanwhile, reported a 28 percent year-over-year improvement. But the 6 was still the lowest-volume midsize car in America January 2017, discontinued Chrysler 200 aside. Only 3 percent of America’s midsize volume was generated by Mazda. Sales of the Mazda 6 in January 2017 were down by a third compared with January 2012. Mazda has sold more than 5,000 6s in a single month just twice in the last 18 months.

That’s right. Even the good midsize numbers in January 2017 weren’t that good at all.

And yet, there’ll be new blood in the category soon, prompting some industry insiders to forecast minimal decline in the latter portion of 2017.

The new midsize cars, of course, are replacements for current midsize cars. No automaker not currently participating in America’s midsize car category is about to jump in. That would be silly. Midsize cars aren’t brought to life. Midsize cars, the forgotten and ignored and the poorly executed, simply die off.

Timothy Cain is the founder of GoodCarBadCar.net, which obsesses over the free and frequent publication of U.S. and Canadian auto sales figures. Follow on Twitter @goodcarbadcar and on Facebook.