Chicago Fed: Party Will Continue Into 2017, Over 17 Million Vehicle Sales Forecast

by Mark Stevenson

Updated: June 13th, 2023 Published: June 8th, 2016

At the 23rd Automotive Outlook Symposium held in Detroit last week, participants representing manufacturing, banking, consulting and academia offered up predictions for 2016 and 2017. The general consensus: we’re in for a good time, possibly for a long time. The sales party will continue beyond 2017.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, which compiled median results from the symposium, the forecast predicts a total of 17.3 million vehicles sold in the United States this year. In 2017, the total number of sales is expected to dip ever so slightly to 17.2 million vehicles.

Other predictions from the symposium forecast minimal increases in the price of oil, from $45.00/barrel in 2016 to $48.92/barrel in 2017, which should further drive the demand for trucks and SUVs. Unemployment is expected to go down by a tenth of a point, while housing starts are forecast to increase.

In 2015, the United States experienced negative industrial production of -1.6 percent. That tide is also expected to turn in 2016 and 2017 toward positive territory.

Overall, the outlook looks fairly peachy, which makes for a rather uninteresting news day.

#2016 #2017 #AutomotiveOutlookSymposium #Forecast #Outlook #Sales

Mark Stevenson

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11 of 18 comments

DeadWeight on Jun 08, 2016

Any unit/branch of the Federal Reserve has forecasting skills rivaling one of those Magic 8 Balls.

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- Bludragon on Jun 08, 2016
  
  I'm thinking what they did here was look at the numbers for last year, this year to date, and then drew a line...
  
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- Dividebytube on Jun 08, 2016
  
  +1 Reply hazy, try again
  
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- Bikegoesbaa on Jun 08, 2016
  
  So you contend that they are grossly incompetent, but also that they successfully manipulate the global economy as part of an elaborate generations-long conspiracy? Hmm. I would think the lizard people could get better help.
  
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- Brettc on Jun 08, 2016
  
  @dividebytube Car sales numbers and everything else is gonna be YUUUGE once Tronald Dump becomes President. All those numbers are wrong, those geeks in the government don't know what they're doing. /s
  
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Lou_BC on Jun 08, 2016

the numbers that puzzle me are those of "real residential investment" and "housing starts". They show a downward trend for the RRI. Wouldn't there be an increase in RRI if housing starts are predicted to climb? Increased housing starts would mean and increase in residential investment. Anyone with an explanation? Thanks.

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Derekson on Jun 08, 2016

This is the housing bubble repeated in exactly the same manner except on car loans. It's amazing that the Fed is completely blind to the issue here. At some point the people who can't afford these car loans are going to start to default, and the lenders will stop issuing the insane numbers of sub-prime loans, and sales will fall off of a cliff.

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- Markf on Jun 08, 2016
  
  Fed is not blind, they are doing this on purpose. It's all about re inflating the bubble to help the Democrats win in NOV.The housing bubble is already re inflated.
  
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- Derekson on Jun 09, 2016
  
  @markf Perhaps they aren't blind, but they are delusional. They think they can just print more money to generate growth and that the more people borrow beyond their means to consume, the better off the economy will be.
  
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Myheadhertz on Jun 08, 2016

The Fed gave us great data back in 2006 and 2007.

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- Highdesertcat on Jun 09, 2016
  
  SOME people paid attention to the data, read between the lines, bailed out while they still could, and did alright for themselves. The number of new cars sold doesn't really matter. What matters is the number of new car loans successfully repaid. If the car makers have an 18m SAAR with a default rate of 25%, that isn't too whoopee. If they sell 15m with a default rate of
  
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