Can Hyundai USA Sell 50,000 Copies Of The Santa Cruz Per Year?

In a sense, the debut of the Santa Cruz Concept at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit this past January was surprising because of its level of production readiness and execution. On the other hand, to those who were aware Hyundai had for years been contemplating the idea of a pickup truck, the Santa Cruz wasn’t a shock at all.

Now, with word that Hyundai is likely to soon green-light production, the case for marketplace success is quickly called up for debate. Even with the arrival of new midsize pickup trucks from General Motors, the non-full-size pickup truck market remains relatively small at just 15% of the overall pickup truck category and 2.2% of the overall industry’s volume through the first four months of 2015.

ALL THOSE IN FAVOUR

Forget V8 power, the Santa Cruz wouldn’t likely even see a V6. In fact, the concept was fitted with a 2.0L four-cylinder diesel engine pumping out 190 horsepower and 300 lb-ft of torque. (A 2.2L four-cylinder diesel, standard in the Hyundai Santa Fe across the pond, generates 194 horsepower and 311 lb-ft of torque.) It’s what the truck market’s been missing, Santa Cruz proponents will say. The reason trucks account for 14% of U.S. auto sales now, down from 19% in 2004, is because truly small pickups like the Ford Ranger and Subaru Baja are dead and buried.

After all, Americans will likely register more than 2.5 million new pickup trucks in 2015. If Americans could buy 670,000 non-full-size pickups this year as they did in 2004 (rather than the 380,000 they’re likely to), pickups would be just as common now as they were then. If only they could buy them, say the supporters of truly small trucks, they would. The buyers are out there, if only there was a product that suited them to a tee. Not a nearly-full-size truck like the new Colorado, but a truck that’s more suitable for weekend fun than it is for week-long work.

They may be right. Hyundai Motor America boss of product planning, Mike O’Brien, believes the Santa Cruz could do Tucson-like sales volume in the United States. That won’t provide the crazy full-size figures of the Ford F-Series or even GMC’s Sierra, but Hyundai averaged 46,300 annual Tucson sales over the last four years. In a market that’s eating up high-riding vehicles, Hyundai is a car-focussed company that could certainly use another 46,000 sales from its “light truck” portfolio.

DOUBTERS LINE UP

Subaru sold 33,132 Outback-based Bajas in total over more than five years. True, the Subaru of 2002 was not the force that Subaru is now, but the Baja is as much a comparable historical vehicle with the Santa Cruz as there is. You can also consider the Honda Ridgeline: like the Hyundai concept, the Ridgeline isn’t a body-on-frame vehicle, but it was sold by a large automaker with proven underpinnings. The Ridgeline’s best sales year: 2006, when 50,193 were sold. But even during its healthiest span of time, between 2005 and 2007, Honda averaged only 45,000 annual Ridgeline sales.

Indeed, other automakers have considered the idea and set it aside. Remember the Dodge Rampage Concept, the GMC Denali XT Concept, and the Toyota A-Bat Concept? They didn’t make it, and the business case likely had an awful lot to do with it.

MURANO CC OR OUTBACK?

Timothy Cain is the founder of GoodCarBadCar.net, which obsesses over the free and frequent publication of U.S. and Canadian auto sales figures. Follow on Twitter @goodcarbadcar and on Facebook.