Wright: Tesla's Camry 'Not Possible' Despite Ongoing Success

by Cameron Aubernon

February 3rd, 2015 5:08 AM

wright teslas camry 8216 not possible despite ongoing success

Tesla co-founder Ian Wright says that while he’s surprised by his old company’s success, the idea of a mass-market EV still doesn’t seem likely.

During an interview with San Francisco Business Times about Wrightspeed’s relocation from San Jose to Alameda, Calif., Wright was pleased that Tesla “worked out… quite a lot better” than he originally thought it would, praising the success of the Model S.

As for Tesla’s overall goal of building EVs “cheaper and cheaper and cheaper until they were outselling the Camry,” he still thinks that isn’t possible, having never been “on board” with the idea among co-founders Martin Eberhard and Mark Tarpenning.

As for his own company, which makes hybrid gas-electric turbine drivetrains for medium and heavy commercial vehicles like garbage and delivery trucks, Wright says there’s a $5 billion market in the United States for his drivetrains, $2 billion alone in garbage trucks. Clients such as FedEx and Ratto Group have installed Wrightspeed tech into their fleets in California, while the California Energy Commission bestowed his company with nearly $7 million in grants.

Speaking of funding, Wright is preparing an IPO in the event he does take his company public, hoping he might do better than when he sold his Tesla shares in 2010 prior to their astronomical appreciation.

#EVs #IanWright #Low-costElectricVehicles #Tesla #Wrightspeed

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13 of 51 comments

Master Baiter on Feb 03, 2015

Pure EV success hinges on battery service life and replacement cost. If Model S batteries tank after 8 or 10 years and cost $25K to replace, it's not going to be pretty. If they end up lasting 20 or 25 years there's a much more compelling value proposition.

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- Vulpine on Feb 03, 2015
  
  I'm glad you said "If", MB. Because I'm pretty sure you hit every extreme in the book there. Since Tesla's batteries are warranted for eight years, we KNOW they'll last longer before we have to pay anything to replace them and to be quite honest I highly doubt they cost $25K to replace at the moment. On the other hand, I also doubt that they'll last 20-25 years in a mobile platform but could live out that time as fixed power storage units in emergency backup situations. Personally, I'd love to have a couple of those packs in my own home for when a hurricane or blizzard decides to shut down power where I live.
  
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- SCE to AUX on Feb 03, 2015
  
  @Vulpine All EV batteries are warranted for 8 years, because the government requires it. The only guarantee is that they will propel the vehicle, basically. Even if you're willing to wait until 30-80% of your battery's capacity is gone to replace it, it's still an expensive proposition.
  
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- Vulpine on Feb 03, 2015
  
  @SCE to AUX "Even if you’re willing to wait until 30-80% of your battery’s capacity is gone to replace it, it’s still an expensive proposition." And that analysis is based on... ?
  
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- SCE to AUX on Feb 04, 2015
  
  @Vulpine I'm extrapolating from my experience driving a Leaf for the last 2+ years, as well as my professional experience as a mechanical engineer who designs lithium ion batteries for my employer's products. Despite Nissan's claims, I am presently thinking my Leaf's capacity is down about 30% from new. I haven't bothered to try and prove this with any equipment, but I do have some data. After 8 years, it won't be usable to drive in the neighborhood. But after September, it won't be my problem.
  
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EManual on Feb 03, 2015

Tesla's success is partly due to it being a Veblen good, like the Rolls Royce use to be. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veblen_good

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- SCE to AUX on Feb 03, 2015
  
  Thank you for the education; agreed.
  
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- SunnyvaleCA on Feb 04, 2015
  
  Another part is use of carpool lane, although that would apply equally to the Leaf (which is even slightly more common in my company's parking lot). They are also "low effort" cars--don't require regular maintenance (especially on lease), don't make noises, drive smoothly and predictably, etc.
  
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KixStart on Feb 03, 2015

"As for his own company, which makes hybrid gas-electric turbine drivetrains for medium and heavy commercial vehicles like garbage and delivery trucks, Wright says there’s a $5 billion market in the United States for his drivetrains, $2 billion alone in garbage trucks." While these uses are absolutely ideal for a hybrid solution, I don't like Wright's chances if GM, Ford or Toyota decides to really get into this market and I can't see why they eventually wouldn't.

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Nickoo on Feb 03, 2015

This sounds like a load of bs. A medium speed 2 stroke diesel hybrid would beat the pants off a gas turbine hybrid in most every way for this application and slow speed 2 stroke would beat the pants and shirt off in efficiency, although not as good for transportation uses due to size constraints. D Battery tech is about to blow past current limitations of current formulations within 5 years, and then its game over for oil and gasoline as primary fuel source. The Saudis even know it and are scared sh*tless. Dual carbon cathode and anode batteries ate coming, and they are game changing--not to mention LiS formulations and several other breakthroughs.

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- David C. Holzman on Feb 03, 2015
  
  If this is true, it will be great. But somehow, it sounds to good to be true. Do you have any documentation?
  
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- 319583076 on Feb 03, 2015
  
  "Battery tech is about to blow past current limitations of current formulations within 5 years, and then its game over for oil and gasoline as primary fuel source. The Saudis even know it and are scared sh*tless. Dual carbon cathode and anode batteries ate coming, and they are game changing–not to mention LiS formulations and several other breakthroughs." I will believe this when I see it. Until then, it's the same old talk.
  
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- SunnyvaleCA on Feb 04, 2015
  
  Batteries have a very very long way to go before they will be viable for air transportation and trans-ocean cargo shipping. Plus, the current IC engines used for those purposes can run quite efficiently--maybe more efficiently than generating the electricity to charge the batteries when considering that the batteries also have some losses. How big is the battery needed to get a 747 from San Francisco to Tokyo without recharging somewhere in the middle of the Pacific ocean?
  
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