Study: US Auto Sales To Rise Through 2017, Modestly Decline Through 2020

Cameron Aubernon
by Cameron Aubernon
study us auto sales to rise through 2017 modestly decline through 2020

Happy days are back again for automakers selling to the United States, with auto sales projected to rise through 2017 before dipping slightly through 2020.

According to The Detroit Bureau, a study by AutoPacific found that consumers bought 16.4 million vehicles in 2014, a 6 percent increase over 2013. Further, the group predicts 2015 sales will hit 17 million, peaking at 17.24 million in 2017.

Per AutoPacific industry analysis vice president Ed Kim, the boom is fueled by both “continued increases in truck and SUV sales,” and the rapid growth of compact crossover sales among mainstream and premium brands. Combined, such sales would make up 55 percent of the overall U.S. market this year.

As for the aforementioned downturn beginning in 2018 and going forward through 2020, Kim cites rises in interest rates, Millennials waiting to purchase their first vehicle, and extended loan terms as factors in the upcoming decline. He adds that despite this, sales are likely to bottom-out at 16.8 million by the start of the next decade, 60 percent better than the 10.4 million vehicles sold in 2009 during the early days of the Great Recession.

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  • Jeff S Jeff S on Feb 23, 2015

    Few would have predicted the mortgage crisis and economic meltdown of 2008. Anything can happen between now and 2017. In reality the ideal time to buy a new vehicle is when things are bad, granted that you have a job and / or can afford to take advantage of a bargain. That is what I did in the Summer of 2008.

    • See 5 previous
    • Ect Ect on Feb 24, 2015

      @ect Type in haste, make mistakes. The sentence should read "I recall reading articles in early 2007 noting that the delinquency rate for mortgage loans made in 2005 was pushing 12%..." Research should be done first, not last...

  • Jeff S Jeff S on Feb 23, 2015

    Most thought the good times would go on and that housing would just continue to go up in price. Few knew how much money was tied up in the housing bubble.

  • BrunoT BrunoT on Feb 24, 2015

    People have been trying to forecast economics forever and they're right only by chance. Way too many variables at work to know the market 5 years from now.

  • Sector 5 Sector 5 on Feb 24, 2015

    Should help trend to cleaner emissions & reduced road deaths.