America's Top 5 Midsize Cars Earn 7 Out Of Every 10 Midsize Car Sales

America’s five top-selling midsize cars have held an iron-fisted grip on their category for years, making it very difficult for interlopers to succeed in any meaningful way.

• Sonata & Malibu knocked out of January’s top five

• Midsize cars up 5.5% in January

• Top five own 69% of midsize market

Yet after earning more than seven out of every ten midsize sales in 2009 and 2010 – when the top five included the Camry, Accord, Altima, Fusion, and Malibu – the top five’s market share slid to 67% in 2011 and 64% in 2012. In 2011, the Hyundai Sonata supplanted the Chevrolet Malibu in the top five and didn’t let go in 2012, 2013, or 2014.

But then a return to the norm began, as the top quintuplet’s share grew to 66% in 2013 and 69% in 2014.

2015 started off similarly.

With the Toyota Camry-led midsize segment thoroughly controlled by a few nameplates, the core midsize car category’s volume grew 5.5%. That’s not terribly far off the pace of the overall car market, which jumped nearly 8%, but well below the 19% growth rate of SUVs and crossovers. 69% of the midsize category in January was owned by the Camry, Nissan Altima, Honda Accord, Ford Fusion, and the fifth-ranked car.

That car was not the Hyundai Sonata, nor was it the Chevrolet Malibu, the last two cars to join the CamAcoTimUsion in the top five on an annual basis.

Instead, the Chrysler 200, up 30% to 14,157 units in January, was America’s fifth-ranked midsize car, 1794 units ahead of the Hyundai Sonata (up 26% to 12,363), 2279 ahead of the Chevrolet Malibu (up 0.5% to 11,878), 4763 ahead of the Kia Optima (down 6% to 9394), and 7852 sales ahead of the Volkswagen Passat (up 1% to 6305).

And while total FCA/Chrysler Group midsize car volume slid 8% to 14,399 in January (as the 200 was not able to completely counteract the disappearance of 95% of the defunct Dodge Avenger’s January sales) and as Fusion volume slid 5%, the real story is the increased clout of the top five finishers. Their market share grew three percentage points from 66% in January 2013 and January 2014 and 67% in December 2014 to 69% in January 2015.

There are only a handful of sales leftover for many intermediate sedans which are marketed with mainstream pricing but sell in the kinds of numbers put up by premium cars. The Mazda 6, Subaru Legacy, and Volkswagen Passat combined for slightly less than 9% of the midsize car market in America last month. The aging Kia Optima, which slid 6% in a category which grew 5.5%, posted four consecutive years of improvement leading up to 2015. But the Optima earned only 6.5% of the market in its best year, a year in which GM’s declining Chevrolet Malibu claimed 7.8% of the midsize category.

Does that mean all hope is lost for the Optima, Passat, Legacy, 6, or any potential Mitsubishi sedan? Of course not all hope. But a number of factors – e.g. production capacity, reputation, loyalty, incentives – contribute to an even more precise alignment of stars that favours the major players maintaining their standing.

Timothy Cain is the founder of GoodCarBadCar.net, which obsesses over the free and frequent publication of U.S. and Canadian auto sales figures.