By on January 14, 2015

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At the start of 2014, I made a number of predictions related to the automotive world, and promised to revisit them at year end. You can see the results here. With that in mind, we’re playing again in 2015. As always, feel free to ridicule me if I’m wrong.

-GM will announce that it is closing the Oshawa plant, once its obligation to the Canadian government expires in 2016. Not only will this allow them to shift volume products to the United States and other lower-cost locations, but it allows them to avoid having to re-negotiate their contract with Canadian labor union Unifor, which also expires in 2016.

-The Honda HR-V will sell 65k units in 2015. It could sell more, but a late Q1 launch and stringent QC checks to avoid the debacle of the Fit launch at Celaya will hamper it

– The Mazda6 diesel will not arrive in 2015.

-The Toyota Tacoma will continue to reign as the top compact pickup, outselling the Chevrolet Colorado and GMC Canyon.

-The new Ford GT will be built by Multimatic. The entire run will be 300 units and it will cost $300,000.

If any of the B&B want to play along, submit your predictions below. We’ll revisit them in a year and see what came to pass.

 

 

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67 Comments on “Derek’s 2015 Predictions...”


  • avatar
    Travis

    I think your production run numbers and cost guesses are off on the GT. I don’t think it will be any higher than 200k, and will run at least, but likely more than 600 units.

    • 0 avatar
      PaulieWalnut

      I’ll punt for 300 units per year. Four figure production run (this is purely based on the plaque on the dash saying ‘0001’). 200k starting price and the’ll charge you more to remove options in the name of making it lighter (see Porsche’s big book of increasing your margin).

  • avatar
    Lie2me

    Along with the HR-V I predict the Jeep Renegade will far out-sell it’s first year capacity of 150,000? units globally

  • avatar
    psarhjinian

    “GM will announce that it is closing the Oshawa plant, once its obligation to the Canadian government expires in 2016.”

    I expect this will be true. Now that everything Oshawa makes is made elsewhere, this is pretty much a given. The only question mark is what happens to Ingersoll/CAMI, which leverages Oshawa.

    “The Honda HR-V will sell 65k units in 2015. It could sell more, but a late Q1 launch and stringent QC checks to avoid the debacle of the Fit launch at Celaya will hamper it”

    Hard to say. It’s a good product, but it’s squeezed between three other good products in Honda’s lineup (the Fit, the Civic and the CR/V). I expect something unpleasant will happen to the Fit (eg, it could go sedan-only) to gimp it’s sales in favour of the HR/V.

    “The Mazda6 diesel will not arrive in 2015.”

    Or 2016, 2017, 2018…

    “The Toyota Tacoma will continue to reign as the top compact pickup, outselling the Chevrolet Colorado and GMC Canyon.”

    Agreed; I’d expect the Coloranyon to make it another eighteen months before cancellation, or to the next revision of the K2XX, whichever comes first

    “The new Ford GT will be built by Multimatic. The entire run will be 300 units and it will cost $300,000.”

    Don’t think this is right. I’d expect Viper money or “A little more than Viper” money.

    • 0 avatar
      Krivka

      What is wrong with the GM Trucks? The Tacoma is a nice product, but the new iteration isn’t world beating by any means.

      • 0 avatar
        Nooly

        The GM trucks look nice, but what remains to be seen is the quality. The 2014/2015 Silverados have all kinds of issues with quality control on ring gears, driveshafts, and tires/wheels that are leading to vibrations. Don’t forget their horrible transmission / engine tuning, My-Link issues, and heated seat failures. I hope the new mid-size trucks are different, but I can’t imagine them being any better.

    • 0 avatar
      Richard Chen

      The prior Ford GT listed at $140k-$150k plus options, not including dealer markup. $300k sounds right.

    • 0 avatar
      scwmcan

      CAMI securred new product until at least 2018, and overflow as I recall is going to spring hill ( may not be correct on the latter part). Oshawa may be closed, but it is also possible that the company is holding its cards tight until negotiations begin on the next contract, and then it will depend on where the union draws the line at that plant. I’d say ( looking from how things are going at the St Catharines Powertrain plant) that the odds are at best 50 50 for Oshawa to stay open. That said the St Catharines plant still doesn’t have a new product to replace the gen 1 HFV6 but it is likely something will be offered during negotiations, who knows for sure though. The problem here isn’t really labour costs, the problem in Ontario is the cost of electricity, it is the largest cost in the operation of the St Catharines plant at least. The Ontario energy policy is what is really killing industry here ( and the government won’t admit it).

  • avatar
    Speed3

    I predict that FCA is going to have another banner year. Sales will again increase by around 20% and I think they will have 13.5% or more market share (up from 12.9 in 2014). This will put them within striking distance of Toyota.

  • avatar
    JLGOLDEN

    “The Toyota Tacoma will continue to reign as the top compact pickup, outselling the Chevrolet Colorado and GMC Canyon.”

    I hate to say this, because I really REALLY want to see GM lead here, but I agree that the new Tacoma will be sell better than Colorado / Canyon. Part of Toyota’s win may come down to its styling: The Toyota looks aggressive, and it has a traditional side profile. The GM twins have that awkward, rising beltline, which is visually mis-matched with the horizontal bed rail. Oooops, the pencil slipped and we have an upward curve terminating abruptly. Not pretty.

    • 0 avatar
      RobertRyan

      The Tacoma looks old here. Agressive? never seen a US Pickup with other than blandish styling.Deliberate so as to not to offend, the vast masses who buy them.Edgy styling is for Halo type vehicles

      • 0 avatar
        ponchoman49

        The Tacoma looks just like what it is. A 90’s refresh of a refresh with a Taurus grille and a few more up to date tech items. The only thing really new is the one 3.5 V6 engine but power and mileage numbers are nowhere to be seen. The only thing that will continue to sell these things is there perceived reliability. Where I live in Upstate, NY frame rust and peeling wheels plus front end issues seem to dog these as they get a few years on them so the GM twins may sell well if they can get the quality control right out of the gate.

  • avatar
    philadlj

    Cadillac will best its 2014 sales total of 170,750.

    How? Don’t look at me; that’s THEIR problem!

  • avatar
    mikey

    I will predict , Oshawa consolidated won’t see 2017 , closing summer of 16. Oshawa Flex will lose the 3 shift , in mid 15. After intense intense negotiations with UNIFOR, and the two levels of government Oshawa Flex will continue to build into 2020. There will be lots of threats , nashing of teeth, sabre rattling ,brinkmanship. The noise will start around late spring 2015.

    So Derek , when I’m, proven right will revisit it eh ? If I’m wrong? ??…I’ like my Crow meat well done .

  • avatar
    highdesertcat

    Valid predictions, one and all, Derek. No reason for anyone to ridicule you.

    I remember how I was ridiculed by the green-weenies when I wrote that we, in the US, have an overabundance of oil. If it weren’t for that overabundance, gas prices would still be a lot higher today.

    Nope, your predictions are all valid at this juncture. But it is a dynamic, ever-changing environment, and even a minor change to the status quo, like Saudi Arabia alone cutting oil production by 25%, can alter the outcomes of even the most well-researched forecasts across the board..

  • avatar
    Scott_314

    Regardless of cheap gas, small crossovers will be a big hit… Mazda CX-3 and Honda HR-V.

    GM Buick cancels one of their sedans. New Volt is a decent success.

    Ford announces plug-in hybrid sedan with all-new name, 2017 model year. F-150 does great.

    Chrysler sales, including 200, are weak. They announce a small car reveal at NAIAS 2016.

    Toyota announces new and improved Camry, again. Scion blows chunks but stays alive.

    Honda stays the same other than the HR-V.

    Mercedes gets it’s short term gains out of the C-class, the things will be everywhere.

    • 0 avatar
      dwford

      Good point on the Buick sedan. Regal goes – too close to LaCrosse. A new, more expensive Buick sedan could come though. New FCA small car will be the revised Dart, but they really need a subcompact too, and not as a Fiat.

    • 0 avatar
      scwmcan

      The regal isn’t going away, it will be replaced with a second generation which is being made in Germany ( along with the Opel version, the German Government gave GM a big cheque to produce it there).

  • avatar
    schmitt trigger

    Don’t ridicule yourself. Predictions and forecasts are only that. If one could accurately predict the future, one would become a billionaire many times over in the stock market.

    A game I play every new year’s eve, is to write down my own predictions (both personal and the news) about what is going to happen the following year.

    I put that in an envelope, and seal it, not to be opened until the next year’s end.

    I’ve never, ever had over 40% of my forecasts solidly true, with perhaps an additional 10 or 20% borderline accurate (if one stretches the rules a bit).

    But I’m going to make my Jan’ 06 automotive-related prediction on this forum. Oil prices will recover. Not all the way to their 2013 levels, but recover nonetheless.

  • avatar
    DenverMike

    Agreed the Tacoma will outsell the GM twins, but will lose market share from last year, dropping from 155K in ’14, down to 120K with the twins coming in at 110K combined.

  • avatar
    mikey

    Styling , and general aesthetics , will always be subjective. Personally ,I’m not crazy about the whole look of the Canyon. I just can’t see it selling in big numbers.

    • 0 avatar
      ponchoman49

      In person the Gm twins look much more modern and aggressive than the old Tacoma. The new one barely looks different save the grille and tailgate and from the side looks like something from the late 90’s.

  • avatar
    CoreyDL

    -Alfa Romeo will not produce any new models, just variations on the 4C. All else is vaporware.

    -Maserati sales will continue to increase rapidly, with the Ghibli being the sales leader.

    -More Hellcat versions will come about.

    -GM will announce a Raptor/Ram Baja competitor.

    -GM will announce the end of the ELR.

    -More Takata airbag recalls throughout 2015, affecting many more vehicles.

    -Sales of the Colorado and Canyon will disappoint.

    -Elio Motors will announce failure.

  • avatar
    Land Ark

    – The delivery of the first orders of NSXes will be delayed, possibly into 2016.

    – Ford will have its Ecoboost MPG claims investigated just as the first signs of problems with the early motors will start to mount.

    – The Kia Santa Cruz concept will be the subject of a TTAC “Where Are They Now” next year as no one will have mentioned it since the auto show circuit ended.

    – The Tesla Model X will be announced for release in late 2016 as a 2017 model.

    – Local Motors will file for bankruptcy protection.

  • avatar
    djsyndrome

    -Second generation Mazda 2 mothballed in US in favor of CX-3 (even though Canada is getting it)
    -WRX wagon, although possibly caught testing, fails to materialize
    -2016 ILX bombs as Acura fails to price it far enough below the far superior TLX

  • avatar
    28-Cars-Later

    -Chevrolet-Buick-GMC will gain slightly on truck, C segment, and larger car sales, and may expand subprime sales even further to help achieve that volume increase.
    -Cadillac will continue to lose ground due to a multitude of reasons.
    -Cadillac press releases will continue to distance themselves from reality.
    -Ford will overall tread water or slightly gain, the aluminum F-150 will initially sell well.
    -Lincoln will lose steam as the glitz of the fake trucks wears off and Navi fail to impress. Lincoln will remain the CPO Ford of choice. Lincoln will tease at a real “Lincoln” car toward the end of the year.
    -FCA will surprise and gain ground.
    -Toyota/Lexus will overall gain ground with Scion losing some.
    -Honda will tread water.
    -Acura will expand slightly.
    -Nissan will expand slightly.
    -Infiniti will tread water, model confusion will abound.
    -Mitsubishi will stubbornly refuse to exit the market.
    -Volvo will continue to descend into irrelevance.
    -Hyundai/KIA will gain ground and further expand subprime sales.
    -VW US will announce some kind of UAW compromise or deal by the end of the year. VW US otherwise remains irrelevant.
    -JLR will increase worldwide sales but tread water in the US. The current batch of off lease blow up LRs and Evoques will start to hit a downtrodden area near you.
    -Overall BMW/Audi/Merc sales will pick up and all three brands will continue to insult my vision with more ugly new model choices.
    -Hybrid sales will plummet, Prius will be the only remaining relevant offering at any significant volume.
    -The new Volt will fair poorly due to a high price and low fuel prices despite a redesign.
    -The Bolt will become expensive low volume exercise for GM due to range anxiety.
    -GM’s hybrid and electrification program losses will continue to be subsidized by profits from conventions models. Depending on RenCen fuel price projections, GM may go “all in” with a well funded electrification or hybrid program aimed at China circa 2020.
    -Tesla will continue to exist despite the financial reality of Tesla, and struggle with international sales at least until the end of the year.
    -Tesla will introduce its new station wagon thing and MSM will cram it in your face until you care, kinda like all of the other Cali sourced wundertech crap the last ten years.

    • 0 avatar
      CoreyDL

      If Infiniti ends up releasing that coupe, and it looks the same as the concept, they’ll have a hit on their hands. That thing is amaze.

      I wonder how the new Q70L will do, as their first-ever LWB vehicle, and their first real competitor to things like the LS and 7-Series since the departure of the Q45 back in 06 (and that really wasn’t big enough either.)

      What are your Volvo predictions? The S60 Inscription will come from Chinra!

    • 0 avatar
      bball40dtw

      Lincoln will be up double digits this year. The MKX is where the volume is at and the first few months of the year are competing against old Navigator and no MKC. They will still be the used Ford brand of choice.

  • avatar
    Beerboy12

    Tesla will announce a new smaller, more affordable model this year. Thus far they have hinted.
    Mid sized trucks will gain a far bigger market share than expected.
    Full size trucks might see a decline in the lower end models as the mid-sizers fill that role.
    While gas prices are low, hybrids sales will decline. Electric and plug in electric should gain market share regardless. I see more electric only cars being announced.
    The oil price will bottom out and rise again. Gas prices I guess will be in the $3 to $3.50 range by the end of the year.
    I expect by the end of next year there will be talk of or even the end of the full size SUV going on.

    • 0 avatar
      DenverMike

      There’s sure to be some new interest, but remember the regular cab midsizers are no more. Cheapskates and bottom feeders now have a dilemma. Base fullsize are about the same price. Fleets like Orkin now buy Silverados in Canada, where regular cab midsize have been gone for some time. And now the Titan is jumping into 1/2 ton regular-cab game, next year.

  • avatar
    EAF

    I’m way too stupid to make any valid predictions, but here goes;

    1. The Renault-Nissan and Mitsubishi partnership will produce a Rally inspired, AWD/Turbocharged, model. It will likely be based on the Clio platform and will be mated to a 4B11 powertrain. It will kick the teeth out of the ST’s and the GTI’s.

    2. Speaking of VW’s, continuing with tradition, they will produce more beautiful yet even less reliable automobiles. The GTI’s will bend rods and crack engine blocks, VW will do anything to void warranties. Fanboys, like roaches, will still pester on.

    3. Finally, I will make my highly anticipated new car purchase. It will be a new for 2016; K24A2 powered, 6MT, Honda Fit Si!

    4. Cadillac’s Brand Director, Melody Lee, will inexplicably go missing. Authorities suspect foul play. TTAC provides police with the only credible lead.

    5. The Weissach Package Porsche 918 Spyder’s Nurburgring lap record will fall to a Mugen prepared Acura NSX 2.0.

    6. Class action lawsuit will be filed in the Camden Court system. Subaru will be named as the defendant. Plaintiff’s alleged damages over the POS oil burning 2.5l dud boxer engine.

    That is all for now.

    • 0 avatar
      28-Cars-Later

      Regarding point four, I don’t see anyone ratting out DW as he makes his way to Mexico.

    • 0 avatar
      Lie2me

      “4. Cadillac’s Brand Director, Melody Lee, will inexplicably go missing. Authorities suspect foul play. TTAC provides police with the only credible lead.”

      We at TTAC will not rat out one of our own even if prior to Melody Lee’s disappearance we get detailed plans of a dungeon with pictures of ’50s-’60s Cadillacs plastered on the walls along with chalk boards with the scripted slogan “Cadillac is the Standard of the World” etched across them a 100 times.

      “Again, Melody write it another 100 times”, “Cadillac is the Standard of the World”,”Cadillac is the Standard of the World”….

  • avatar
    Chocolatedeath

    -Mazda will announce that they are using BMW’s diesel.They will annouce new CX9 with diesel as well…yep…true story..lol
    -Fiat/Chrys: Fiat will continue to loss money and using Chrysler to stay a float.
    -Honda: The Accord will continue to pick up 10+ % in sales this year,Civic will slide 10+% due to being average and competition (Corolla) getting better (average) as well as due to the new small ute they are coming out with.
    -Cadillac: sales continue to slide just because Dead Weight doesnt like interior, Dead Weight wins Pulitzer due to his convictions.
    -Ford:will realize that their Focus and Edge back seat are too damn small and announce that in 2017 they will ride on larger platforms and gain 300 more pounds but get 50 miles to the gallon on rat piss.
    -Toyota: The mid size truck will lose market share however it will only be do to the fact that at the end of the year when the GM twins have sold 200k plus that Ford and Dodge will announce vapor wear in the form of the Ranger and Dakota to be built in 2019.Everything else is as ordered.
    -Audi will finally announce that they will be an A8 Diesel/hybrid 6 cylinder. with the upcoming redesign and it will weigh 400lbs less than before.

    -LAST BUT NOT LEAST AND MOST IMPORTANT: TTAC AND FORD WILL JOIN TOGETHER AND ANNOUNCE IN A PROMOTION TYPE DEAL THEY ARE GIVING AWAY THE VERY LAST FLEX MADE THIS YEAR AS THEY ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AFTER 2016 DUE TO ME NOT BUYING ONE.YOU ALSO GET TO REVIEW IT YOURSELF ON THIS VERY SITE.

  • avatar
    dwford

    Some predictions:

    1. Buick drops a sedan. I think with the new Verano goes up market and makes the Regal in it’s current form obsolete. New LaCrosse is coming soon too.
    2. The GM midsize trucks will sell decently, but I don’t think they will be the CUV replacements GM thinks. As someone who has recently given up a car for a pickup, I miss the trunk. My backseat is full of trunk junk.
    3. Alfa continues to exist only in our fantasies. 20 years of waiting and we will wait more.
    4. FCA will do well in the decent economy, but if the economy tanks, their strategy of many brands with none of them having a full lineup will fail. Right now with FCA if you want a subcompact it’s a Fiat, compact it’s a Dodge, midsize it’s a Chrysler, and full size you get a choice of Dodge or Chrysler – but with a heavy RWD bias. None of it makes sense.
    5. Scion continues to struggle. The tuner crowd that wanted the oddball Japanese cars is largely gone, and the upcoming models might as well be branded Toyotas.
    6. We see a new Hyundai Genesis coupe by the end of the year, and it goes upscale. A hot hatch will end up replacing the cheap Genesis Coupe and the Veloster.

  • avatar
    John

    Just read that one third of autos sold in 2014 were sold to sub-prime buyers, and over 8% of sub-prime auto loans made in early 2014 were in arrears by November 2014. I’m predicting a lot of late model used cars for sale cheap by the end of 2015, although they will probably not have had their maintenance schedules followed.

  • avatar
    bball40dtw

    Like my 2014 prediction, I’m going with Lincoln unveiling a LWB Mustang sedan. Maybe if I wish hard enough….

    As much as everywhere else besides TTAC seems to love the GT, I’d prefer 400-500 HP Lincoln sedans being unveiled instead.

  • avatar
    Illan

    -Ford Shelby GT350 will start at 50k

    -fold Shelby GT350R will start at 75K without any options

    -New Malibu to be shown

    -possible new station wagon from GM

    -Mitusbishi will bring its new galant and lancer replacement sedans and will still have no clue what to do

    -Subaru will show off the WRX STI Hatchback

    -(wishful thinking) a new lincoln base on the mustang RWD platform with a ecoboost

    -Jeep Cherokee Hellcat aka trackhawk

    -new Chevy Cruze to Debut

    -the return of the 300c srt8 with the hellcat(one can wish right)

    -Volvo sales to drop since they will start selling Chinese built cars

    -GM will show the new 2016 Camaro

    -NIssan GT-R hybrid will be on the rumor mills

    -Toyota will still tease the Ft-1 until their platform with bmw is ready fro 2016

    -gray will be the popular color again

  • avatar
    kosmo

    Subaru will build a hatchback WRX.

    Then ruin it by offering it ONLY with the CVT.

    Volvo will see the light and sales will surge, when it institutes my new marketing plan of “Great cars, prices exactly $6,000 less than a comparable BMW or Mercedes”.

  • avatar
    deanst

    as the dollar surges, japanese automakers use their new found advantage to add content to their vehicles.

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