Imagine A Kia Without A Soul

Last year was a difficult pill to swallow for Kia in America. After claiming record sales in 2012, Kia volume slid 4% even as America’s auto industry grew 8%.

There were inventory issues, but there was also concern that the new Sorento, though revamped under the skin, didn’t appear new on the outside. The Forte launch didn’t send shock waves through the compact segment. The Cadenza was never expected to be a volume leader.

Explanations for the decline didn’t stop Kia from “restructuring” either, as Kia Motors America’s executive VP of sales, Tom Loveless, was replaced by Michael Sprague.

Through the first eight months of 2014, however, Kia is back on track. Compared with the same period last year, brand-wide sales are up 7%. Compared with the first eight months of that record-setting 2012, sales are up 4.5%.

Admittedly, that pace is not in keeping with the pace of expansion in the overall industry (up 5.1% year-over-year, up 17.5% compared with the first two-thirds of 2012), but it’s a sharp turn in the right direction.

Credit is not owed to the brand’s best seller, the midsize Optima, sales of which are down slightly, just 0.6%, so far this year. Sales of the still-popular Sorento, Kia’s second-best-selling model in 2012 before last year’s 12% decline, are down 5% in 2014. Forte sales are recovering, but only marginally, and it trails ten different compacts in total year-to-date sales, including the Dodge Dart. Rio volume is down 11%. The Cadenza, K900, and Sedona – Kia’s three lowest-volume nameplates – have contributed an extra 3062 sales, not enough to overcome the Sorento’s losses.

Therefore, it’s the Sportage and Soul that are doing Kia’s heavy lifting; restoring the brand’s U.S. fortunes and reversing a trend that resulted in an 8% decline in the final four months of 2013.

The difference, of course, is that the Sportage is a minor player in a booming segment, and it in fact became increasingly minor over the last couple of years. Sportage volume is up 37% in 2014, and that’s no bad thing. But that year-over-year change masks the fact that Sportage sales in 2013 had fallen to a three-year low. Compared with the first eight months of 2012, Sportage sales are up just 6%; compared with the first eight months of 2011, Sportage volume is down 14%. Kia dealers surely appreciate selling more Sportages this year than last, but it’s not the vehicle they’d credit with fuelling Kia’s most recent resurgence.

Rather, the second-generation Soul, currently Kia’s second-best-selling model and the brand’s top seller during the month of July, is the source of this moderate surge. Through eight months, Soul sales have jumped 26%, equal to 21,569 extra units. Kia passenger car volume is up 7.7% with the Soul; slightly less than level without it. Overall Kia sales are up 6.9% with the Soul; just 1.5% without the Soul.

The Soul’s improvements have helped Kia’s market share rise slightly from 3.55% at this time last year to 3.61% in 2014. Had Soul sales only remained level, Kia’s market share would have fallen to 3.42%. Meanwhile at Kia’s Soul-less Hyundai partner, the brand’s market share has fallen from 4.63% to 4.48%, year-over-year.

The Soul was expected to be a niche success. It was, after all, a new introduction from a thriving brand in 2009. But how many observers predicted that Kia would abruptly stall, and that the Soul’s consistent success (volume has increased every single year even as it aged) would be followed up by a second-generation launch on which Kia would rely for big volume?

The Soul is currently America’s 29th-best-selling vehicle overall, only a handful of sales behind the Subaru Forester and Volkswagen Jetta and ahead of the Toyota Tacoma, Toyota Prius liftback, Nissan Versa, and Chevrolet Impala.

Timothy Cain is the founder of GoodCarBadCar.net, which obsesses over the free and frequent publication of U.S. and Canadian auto sales figures.