Cain's Segments, May 2014: Trucks
Ford is in a transition phase: readying the new 2015 F-150 while trying to sell the old model as often as possible. This requires knowing just how many F-Series pickups dealers will need in the weeks leading up to the new model’s introduction.
Too few is a problem, as is too many. Of course, Ford has experience in this arena. They’ve restructured plants before, they’ve forecasted summer truck sales for outgoing trucks before, they’ve done so while continuing to play a major role in America’s truck market before. But we can still expect to see some fluctuation in the figures put up by America’s best-selling vehicle line.
Indeed, May F-Series sales fell by 3084 units. Where did those buyers go? General Motors added 3365 Chevrolet Silverado sales and 2265 GMC Sierra sales compared with May 2013, Chrysler said Ram truck sales grew by 5459 units, and Toyota reported an extra 1441 Tundra sales.
In other words, a handful of potential F-Series buyers may have headed elsewhere – and they could just be waiting – but the truck market added thousands of buyers last month. America’s full-size truck segment grew by more than 5%, or 9210 units, in May 2014. Year-to-date sales are up 6%, or 45,469 units.
At this point last year, six full-size truck nameplates accounted for 87% of the pickups sold in the first five months of 2013. They’ve moved that figure forward to 89% in 2014; 89.3% during the month of May specifically.
Compared with the first five months of 2013, GM and Ford have both lost 1.5 percentage points of market share in the category. Fears that GM’s new trucks couldn’t take advantage of what would inevitably be a more challenging start to the year for Ford have been set aside, to a degree, over the last couple of months, as Silverado/Sierra market share held steady in April (on a year-over-year basis) and improved in May, both on a year-over-year basis and compared with April.
Ram and Toyota are more expertly capitalizing on the opportunity, at least from a purely volume-oriented perspective. Ram’s share of the full-size truck segment has grown by nearly three percentage points as volume has shot up by more than 30,000 units over the last five months. Toyota has added 7204 Tundra sales so far this year.
During the first five months of the Tundra’s best ever calendar year, 2007, the Tundra generated 6.9% of the sales produced by these six trucks. (GM’s share was 39.6%; Ford’s was 32.8%. The full-size market itself was 10% bigger than it has been so far this year.) Toyota isn’t going to sell 196,555 Tundras in 2014 like they did in 2013, but the brand is rapidly moving back to those kinds of market share levels.
Ram’s move up the ladder is impressive, but it pales in comparison to what they’ve accomplished in Canada. 29.5% of the full-size trucks sold in Canada so far this year have been Rams. GM Canada’s twins trail the Ram P/U lineup by 3026 units heading into June.
Unworthy of mention now that GM has all but extinguished the last of its inventory, the Chevrolet Avalanche outsold the Nissan Titan by 578 units in May of last year. Cadillac sold three Escalade EXTs in May 2014; Chevrolet reported a single Avalanche sale.TruckMay2014May2013%Change5 mos.20145 mos.2013%ChangeFord F-Series68,52071,604-4.3%305,265299,477+1.9%Chevrolet Silverado46,64843,283+7.8%197,160199,327-1.1%Ram P/U37,13131,672+17.2%170,711140,675+21.4%GMC Sierra18,32616,061+14.1%77,78571,065+9.5%Toyota Tundra11,3919950+14.5%49,01041,806+17.2%Nissan Titan11661402-16.8%54407552-28.0%—— —————Total183,182173,972+5.3%805,371759,902+6.0%TruckMay2014ShareMay2013Share5 mos. 2014 Share5 mos. 2013ShareFord F-Series37.4%41.2%37.9%39.4%Chevrolet Silverado/GMC Sierra35.5%34.1%34.1%35.6%Ram P/U20.3%18.2%21.2%18.5%Toyota Tundra6.2%5.7%6.1%5.5%Nissan Titan0.6%0.8%0.7%1.0%—————Full-Size Share Of Total Pickup Truck Market89.3%87.2%89.0%87.0%Full-Size Pickup Share Of Total Industry11.4%12.0%11.9%11.8%
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- Scott ?Wonder what Toyota will be using when they enter the market?
- Fred The bigger issue is what happens to the other systems as demand dwindles? Will thet convert or will they just just shut down?
- Roger hopkins Why do they all have to be 4 door??? Why not a "cab & a half" and a bit longer box. This is just another station wagon of the 21st century. Maybe they should put fake woodgrain on the side lol...
- Greg Add me to the list: 2017 Sorento EX AWD w/2.0 Turbo GDI 68K miles. Changed oil religiously with only synthetic. Checked oil level before a rare long road trip and Ievel was at least 2 quarts down. That was less than 6 months after the last oil change. I'm now adding a quart of oil every 1000 miles and checking every 500 miles because I read reports that the oil usage gets worse. Too bad, really like the 2023 Tuscon. But I have not seen Hyundai/Kia doing anything new in terms of engine development. Therefore, I have to suspect that I will ony become a victim of a fatally flawed engine development program if I were to a purchase another Kia/Hyundai.
- Craiger 1970s Battlestar Galactica Cylon face.
@Lou BC--That's true, I did think about that. Nevertheless he was an immature jerk who probably doesn't know his head from his rear end. I enjoy a good discussion but that site has become infected with a lot of immature fan boys. Honestly I have had all 3 of the Detroit brands and some foreign and I have been overall satisfied. Anyone can get a lemon and if you don't take care of any vehicle it will be troublesome.
@Lou BC--Agree, the fan boys have ruined it. I really like the articles on TTAC and enjoy reading the comment section--I always learn something new.