Cain's Segments: Large Cars

America’s large car category shed more than 18,000 sales in the first quarter of 2014 as new entities weren’t able to add enough sales to overcome the declines of established players.

The Nissan Maxima was the only volume-brand big car to record more sales in the first one-quarter of 2014 than during the first three months of 2013. In March, the Dodge Charger was the only volume-brand big car to generate a year-over-year sales increase.

March large car sales were down 5%, a loss of just under 3000 units.

Buick has posted only two months of improved LaCrosse sales in the United States in the last year. LaCrosse volume decreased in 2011 and 2012, then fell 17% in 2013 and is down 15% in 2014. Improved Regal sales over the last six months have softened the blow, but the Regal remains the lowest-volume Buick.

Elsewhere at GM, the desire to reposition the Impala upmarket has resulted in an anticipated sales decline. The Impala range continues to be one of America’s best-selling car lines: it ranks 15th among passenger cars year-to-date, down from 12th in Q1 2013. In a market where car sales have fallen 4% in 2014, GM’s car division is up 3% and Chevrolet car sales are up 6% (and 13% in March).

The Cruze’s 17% Q1 boost and the Corvette’s extra 5238 extra sales have carried the bulk of that increase. The SS, a car we knew was headed for niche status in its quest to steal sales from SRT Chryslers and Dodges, plays in the high-priced corner of this arena. Only 1283 have been sold since its introduction in the fall.

Chrysler and Dodge have combined to own 28.5% of the category’s early 2014 sales, up slightly from the 27.8% they achieved a year ago despite their decreased volume. Passenger car sales in Chrysler/Dodge/Fiat showrooms are down 20% this year as the Avenger dies off, the 200 awaits replacement, the Dart slides 30%, and the 300 and Charger suffer from the same affliction that is besetting other big cars.

Ford is kind enough to fill us in on specific Taurus Police Interceptor sales data. 887 of the 6576 Tauruses sold in the U.S. in March were not intended for civilians; 2285 of the 14,594 year-to-date. The Explorer Police Interceptor has generated 1415 more sales than its sedan counterpart so far this year. Sales of the conventional Taurus are down 28% to 12,309 units in 2014, less than what the Impala range managed in March alone. (Chevrolet has also sold 769 Caprice PPVs in 2014, up from 679 a year ago.)

Kia’s Cadenza has outsold the Hyundai Azera by 491 units since the Kia went on sale in April 2013. On four occasions between June and October of last year Kia managed to top 1000 units, selling more than 3300 Cadenzas in July and August combined. On admittedly subjective grounds, we’ve left the Hyundai Genesis and Equus, Kia K900, and Lexus ES off this list because of their premium standing. It’s arguable, and you will argue. But for the record, total Genesis sales were down 31% to 2170 units in March (down 35% to 5236 in Q1) in the lead-up to the replacement of the sedan’s portion of the lineup. Hyundai also sold 331 Equus luxo-barges and Kia sold its first 105 K900s. The ES was down by just 14 units to 6784 in March but is down 10% to 15,103 sales year-to-date.

Speaking of the Camry’s Lexus sibling, the latest Avalon got off to a rip-roaring start in December 2012, but those massive year-over-year increases were bound to come to an end. The bad news? Toyota isn’t selling as many Avalons this year as they did last year. The good news? Toyota should easily sell more than 50,000 Avalons this year, having sold an average of 31,000 Avalons per year between 2008 and 2012.

Nissan is having no problem selling more of their handsomely priced Maximas in 2014. But the year-over-year comparison only tells part of the story, as Maxima volume had fallen 9% to a four-year low in 2013, and Q1 2014 sales are actually down 17% compared with the first quarter of 2012. The Maxima’s replacement was foreshadowed by the Detroit auto show’s Sport Sedan Concept.

Passenger cars account for a smaller portion of the auto industry’s output this year than last. And after bringing in 7.9% of 2013’s first quarter car sales, these large cars are responsible for just 7.2% of America’s car market in 2014.