Cain's Segments: Affordable Off-Roaders

The general belief that no genuine Jeep Wrangler alternative sells in anything like the kinds of numbers achieved by the Wrangler is a belief that is completely, wholeheartedly supported by the facts.

Let’s be honest. The Wrangler’s popularity, in particular the Wrangler Unlimited’s fruitful endeavor into the mainstream auto buying consciousness, couldn’t happen without one of two occurrences: either offroading is exploding in popularity as a leisure activity, or some buyers who would otherwise choose a Ford Escape (and its kind) are buying a Jeep Wrangler.

Regardless of the circumstances which are leading buyers to the Wrangler, there are more such buyers than ever before, and it’s not as though there are a wide array of Wrangler-like alternatives in the U.S. market. Pickup trucks aside, the Toyota FJ Cruiser and Nissan Xterra stand out as the other two affordable offroaders, the ones which could reasonably be modified to become ultra-capable offroaders.

Does that status matter to the majority of buyers? Not only does it matter to those who wish to travel far off the beaten path, it also matters to buyers who will never even contemplate leaving the pavement. The fact that they’ll be driving something that could do so if need be – rather than just looking like it might be able to – is a huge part of the Wrangler’s appeal; the FJ’s and Xterra’s, too.

But the FJ Cruiser is on its last legs. Meanwhile, plans to spend a vast amount of money on redesigning and relaunching the Xterra are sketchy as, after all, the Xterra sells barely more often than the Titan.

Don’t be confused by the year-over-year change. Yes, Xterra sales are rising in 2013, but an increase of 2% for such a low-volume vehicle translates to just 335 extra sales through eleven months. Moreover, the overall new vehicle market, especially the SUV/crossover market, is growing at a much faster clip than the aging Xterra. Of greater relevance is the fact that this current YOY growth comes after one of the Xterra’s worst ever years in terms of U.S. volume. 17,222 were sold in all of 2012, a 5% drop compared with 2011, and a 78% drop compared with the 79,779 Xterras which were sold in 2002.

One might also ask why the FJ needs to be cancelled if the its year-over-year decline is so slight, but that question, too, would only be asked by one who hasn’t studied the FJ’s U.S. history. Sales peaked at 56,225 in the model’s first year, fell as low as 11,941 units in 2009, and then averaged just 14,000 sales per year since 2010. It’s been allowed to languish without significant updates even as consumers who may once have been enamoured by its style became more aware of its poor visibility and excessive base price.

Granted, the compromises a buyer must accept to tolerate life with the Jeep are numerous, yet they don’t seem to be significant enough to keep away a record number of buyers. The Wrangler’s success leads us to believe that others could also succeed, that there is some untapped potential. On the other hand, the decreasing number of FJ and Xterra sales causes us to wonder if Jeep, with all the Wrangler’s history and its cheap toplessness and its steady improvement, should simply be the sole purveyor of affordable offroaders.

So unique is the Wrangler and so wide is its product range that even the Xterra and FJ Cruiser hardly seem like Wrangler rivals. They’re certainly not sales volume rivals. Being the one and only hasn’t always turned out well for automakers. Consider the Renault Avantime, Subaru Baja, and Lincoln Blackwood. In the Wrangler’s case, its climb to its current status as one of America’s 30 best-selling vehicles is proof that the Wrangler is, well, it’s not a Renault Avantime.