Cain's Segments: July 2013 – Small Trucks Versus The Ford F-Series

Big trucks are really quite good at being many things to many people. Consequently, many people buy big trucks. Sales of full-size trucks in the United States are up 23% this year as the overall industry has grown at an 8% clip. Big trucks are relatively affordable, more fuel efficient than they were in the recent past, and much more liveable than they were even a decade ago.

Small trucks – by which we don’t necessarily mean “small” – are sadly not much more efficient, nor are they significantly more affordable than big trucks. Neither are they as effective as big trucks at replacing the conventional family car.

Yet as you saw on TTAC, General Motors isn’t about to let North Americans go without a small truck from the homeland, by which we mean Thailand. Still named Colorado and Canyon, the Chevrolet and GMC competitors for the Toyota Tacoma should go on sale next year.

Toyota’s certainly not going to give up on the small truck market. It’s a small market, but they own it. Nissan achieves decent volume with the Frontier. Honda clearly feels they have a moral obligation to provide truck buyers with a trunk.

Suzuki is dead in North America, and dying with it is the Equator, a Nissan Frontier copy. The Ranger is gone. So is the Dakota. So there are five left, and the five account for 11.6% of the overall truck market, down from 16.2% in the first seven months of 2012.

Those two numbers are, in one sense, are hardly comparable. The Canyon, Colorado, Dakota, Equator, and Ranger contributed 30% of small truck buyers in the early part of last year, a figure which fell to 3% this year. On the other hand, there were potentially 29,000 truck buyers this year who either fled to the full-size market, bought a car or crossover, didn’t buy anything at all because they’re dissatisfied with the current offerings, or are patiently waiting for the new Colorado.

A strict look at the numbers quickly reveals the Tacoma’s current domination. From 45.1% in the first 58% of last year, the Tacoma’s market share in the category has risen to 65.5%. (The Tacoma’s market share in the overall pickup truck market grew from 7.3% to 7.6%.)

It’s a sad commentary on the Nissan that, without a Ranger and any real competition from GM dealers, sales of the Frontier haven’t improved at all.

Last year, Ridgeline volume rose 44% from its lowest historic level to its second-lowest historic level, and sales are up enough to figure that Ridgeline sales in 2013 will be better than they’ve been since 2008. Perhaps 18,000, maybe 19,000 will be sold this year. Honda sold 50,193 in 2006.

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