Cain's Segments: Where Did All The German Roadsters Go?

In the first six months of 2013, the volume achieved by America’s auto industry was 5% smaller than it was in the first six months of 2003. This is an important statistic, one which goes a long way in understanding how America’s appetite for the smallest German roadsters (and hardtops, and hardtop roadsters) has dwindled.

In the whole of 2003, the Audi TT, BMW Z4, Mercedes-Benz SLK, and Porsche Boxster accounted for 0.24% of the new vehicle market. So far this year, with assistance from the Porsche Cayman and the not-so-German Jaguar F-Type, this group is responsible for just 0.12% of the new vehicle market.

This isn’t a judgement on the sports car industry. Porsche, for example, will sell more 911s this year than in 2003. As much as anything, it says something about the BMW Z4’s fall from great heights. 20,182 were sold in 2003, enough to outdo the TT, SLK, and Boxster combined.

Nevertheless, this does all sound too pessimistic, particularly given the warm welcome afforded to the new Jaguar F-Type. With its $69,000 base price, the Jag can’t decide whether it wants to take on the 911 or Boxster. With 417 sales in June, it very nearly outsold the less costly Porsche, and it did manage to sell more frequently than the TT, Z4, SLK, and Cayman.

Don’t interpret this to be a surefire sign of long-term success. Sales in this category swing upward and downward whimsically. For instance, the Boxster’s June decline, though slight, points to the suddenness with which growth can be stymied. On sale in its third-gen iteration for a year now, the Boxster’s streak of twelve consecutive months of year-over-year growth came to a halt in June. The Cayman, finally readily available in second-generation form, must have something to do with that.

42% of the 1917 sales represented here came from the two Porsches. Yet Porsche’s greater success was found with the 911, which outsold the mid-engined twins by seven units last month. And Porsche’s greatest volume was achieved with the Cayenne, which generated 49% of Porsche sales, and did so by finding more than 700 buyers for the Cayenne Diesel and Cayenne GTS.

Back to the subject of the F-Type, it’s important to remember that its success or failure is of much greater consequence at Jaguar than, say, the Z4’s would be at BMW. Indeed, Mercedes-Benz’s reliance on the SLK is virtually nonexistent, and though Audi can present the TT as a style icon, the brand will not rise and fall with its U.S. sales improvement or even the TT’s disappearance.

Only 1% of the BMWs sold in the United States this year have been Z4s; only 1.6% of the Benzes have been SLKs; only 1.3% of the Audis were TTs. Meanwhile, at Jaguar, with only one proper month of selling under its belt, the F-Type is already responsible for 7.4% of the company’s American sales this year.

The F-Type sold very nearly as often as the XJ in June and roundly trounced the XK – by a 3.3-to-1 count – last month. Fully one-quarter of Jaguar’s volume in June came from the F-Type. In June 2012, without the F-Type, Jaguar accounted for just 22% of Jaguar-Land Rover U.S. volume. One year later, with the F-Type, Jaguar attracted 32% of Jaguar-Land Rover clientele.

Independent analyst Timothy Cain is the founder and editor of GoodCarBadCar.net.