Europe In May 2013: Ford OK, GM Definitely Not OK

by Bertel Schmitt

Published: June 18th, 2013

europe in may 2013 ford ok gm definitely not ok

Hopes of a bottoming of the European have been frustrated, and the small April uptick turned out as a flash in the pan.

We warned in April not to read too much into car data, caused by a curious confluence of calendars. We predicted two weeks ago that the EU market will continue on its downward trajectory. And so it does.

The new car market throughout the EU was down 5.9 percent in May, the auto manufacturer association ACEA says. For the year, the market is down 6.8 percent. Among the volume markets, the UK (+11 percent) is the only one that is not down. Across the Channel, France is down 10.4 percent.

New Car Sales Europe May 201318/6/13MayJanuary – May %ShareUnitsUnits% Chg %ShareUnitsUnits% Chg’13’12’13’1213/12’13’12’13’1213/12ALL BRANDS1,042,7421,107,942-5.95,070,8405,443,226-6.8VW Group25.424.6264,768272,375-2.824.924.01,261,9591,304,930-3.3VOLKSWAGEN12.712.9132,255142,623-7.312.612.7636,665690,044-7.7AUDI5.95.761,36863,364-3.25.75.4288,467295,428-2.4SEAT2.52.125,55922,770+12.22.42.0120,706109,794+9.9SKODA4.03.941,20543,351-5.03.93.8196,512208,551-5.8Others (1)0.40.04,381267+1540.80.40.019,6091,113+1661.8PSA Group11.012.0115,191132,670-13.211.212.1569,379660,987-13.9PEUGEOT6.16.564,03472,191-11.36.26.5312,806354,190-11.7CITROEN4.95.551,15760,479-15.45.15.6256,573306,797-16.4RENAULT Grp8.28.585,08194,535-10.08.58.4431,341458,504-5.9RENAULT5.86.660,42973,274-17.56.36.7318,433362,610-12.2DACIA2.41.924,65221,261+15.92.21.8112,90895,894+17.7GM Group8.49.087,94399,183-11.38.08.3403,784453,822-11.0OPEL/VAUXHALL7.27.474,56381,679-8.76.86.8346,108369,590-6.4CHEVROLET1.31.613,37317,482-23.51.11.557,58484,069-31.5GM (US)0.00.0722-68.20.00.092163-43.6FORD8.07.582,95383,185-0.37.58.0378,432433,926-12.8FIAT Group6.97.372,22780,930-10.86.66.8333,058368,039-9.5FIAT5.45.456,15559,763-6.05.14.9259,109265,264-2.3LANCIA/CHRYS0.70.97,5689,668-21.70.70.834,26445,898-25.3ALFA ROMEO0.60.86,6478,792-24.40.60.829,29743,616-32.8JEEP0.10.21,4632,380-38.50.20.28,69711,352-23.4Others (2)0.00.0394327+20.50.00.01,6911,909-11.4BMW Group6.36.465,39270,455-7.26.36.0316,998325,579-2.6BMW5.05.152,20456,832-8.15.14.8256,686261,785-1.9MINI1.31.213,18813,623-3.21.21.260,31263,794-5.5DAIMLER5.65.258,36057,977+0.75.55.0281,182274,826+2.3MERCEDES5.04.652,53351,103+2.85.04.5251,632242,580+3.7SMART0.60.65,8276,874-15.20.60.629,55032,246-8.4TOYOTA Grp4.03.941,41343,566-4.94.24.4210,579239,555-12.1TOYOTA3.83.739,86541,278-3.44.04.2202,441227,093-10.9LEXUS0.10.21,5482,288-32.30.20.28,13812,462-34.7NISSAN3.22.933,74731,884+5.83.63.5181,353188,161-3.6HYUNDAI3.33.134,90434,251+1.93.53.3176,157179,557-1.9KIA2.82.829,44930,556-3.62.82.5139,786136,573+2.4VOLVO CAR1.71.617,42718,050-3.51.71.884,92495,402-11.0JLR1.00.810,3259,402+9.81.21.061,14154,049+13.1LAND ROVER0.80.78,1837,512+8.91.00.849,07543,839+11.9JAGUAR0.20.22,1421,890+13.30.20.212,06610,210+18.2HONDA1.01.010,40110,777-3.51.21.061,00655,165+10.6SUZUKI1.21.212,09513,189-8.31.21.260,12967,354-10.7MAZDA1.00.710,3227,950+29.81.11.054,99153,590+2.6MITSUBISHI0.50.65,5776,385-12.70.60.628,42833,722-15.7OTHER**0.51.05,16710,622-51.40.71.136,21359,485-39.1Source: ACEA

Among the volume makers Daimler (+0.7 percent) and Ford (-0.3 percent) look the best. The Ford data give rise to the hope that the Blue Oval can stem the European hemorrhage earlier than others. Bloomberg says that ” Ford is counting on new models such as the EcoSport compact sport-utility vehicle to help reduce reliance on low-margin sales to rental-car companies in Europe to stem losses in the region.” Ford definitely has more reason for optimism than GM.

The GM Group shows no sign of a turn-around, actually, its downward spiral is getting slightly steeper. Down 11 percent for the year, the GM Group was down 11.3 percent in May. RenCen’s big hope, the Chevroletification of Europe as a counterweight to moribund Opel, fizzles fast. Chevrolet sales were down 23.5 percent in Europe, while Opel lost 8.7 percent. GM sold a grand total of 7 (seven) cars imported from America. Any hopes of Cadillac (not even on the list) creating trouble for European premium makers are seen as a symptom of a deranged mind in Europe. GM partner PSA was down 13.2 percent in May.

Europe’s largest maker Volkswagen looks relatively OK and should do better as its bread & butter Golf reaches wider distribution. Seat’s comeback is interesting.

Finally keep an eye on the low-cost brand Dacia, Renault’s answer to European austerity programs.

#BertelSchmitt #Europe #EuropeInMay2013 #May2013 #Sales

Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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Th009 on Jun 18, 2013

An OK month for Ford and a bad month for GM ... but YTD GM is still less bad than Ford. We should wait another month to see which one is a blip and which one is a spiral.

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- Onus on Jun 18, 2013
  
  Yeah it agree. Didn't look so good to ford on ytd numbers. But, it looks like the monthly numbers are kicking up. Plus you also have to figure ford is a plant closing spree. There aim is even with less sales to still pull a profit. Much like there plan here was, and has worked successfully.
  
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- Th009 on Jun 18, 2013
  
  @Onus Fundamentally, yes, Ford is doing the right things in Europe (though GM is now moving in that direction, too). Will it work? It'll be interesting to watch. Five-year perspective, Jan-May sales in 2008 vs 2013 Ford brand: 696K vs 378K, down 46% Opel/Vauxhall: 759K vs 346K, down 55% Grim numbers for both! Mind you, Fiat is down 63% ... (PSA is in Ford/GM territory, Renault and VW have declined much less.)
  
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- Ect on Jun 18, 2013
  
  Yes, but we should wait more than a month. Any given month can vary widely, for a host of reasons, so one has to look at the longer treand line. YTD, it look like (among high-volume players) VW, BMW, Daimler and Renault are outperforming the market, while PSA, GM, Ford, Fiat and Toyota are underperforming. Outperforming a shrinking market is no cause for rejoicing, but underperforming a shrinking market should be treated as a crisis. Who will, and who won't?
  
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Olddavid on Jun 18, 2013

I will admit to glossing over these numbers in the past. So, while admitting my purposeful ignorance, can someone explain to me how both Suzuki and Mazda sell more cars in Europe than Honda? Or are these just import figures, not taking into account locally built vehicles? Volvo sells more cars than Honda? Have I come to a parallel universe? The heading of the chart does say "New car sales Europe".

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- Bumpy ii on Jun 18, 2013
  
  Honda has a much larger footprint in the US than their global scale might otherwise indicate. Sorta the inverse of Volkswagen in that regard.
  
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- Vwgolf420 on Jun 18, 2013
  
  I've been able to go on no frills trips to France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain & Portugal in the past couple of years, and anecdotally speaking, I rarely saw Hondas. Fits (or Jazz as they are called in those markets) were around here & there, but I recall one Civic in Berlin and it was very different from US spec Civic. It looked like a spaceship. Toyotas were relatively abundant in all of the countries as were Nissans. I saw a fair number of Mazda 3 hatchbacks in Germany. Way more Hyundais and Kias than Hondas too.
  
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