Grade The Analysts: Jessica Caldwell Wins In Photo Finish

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

We already thought Bloomberg might have abandoned its monthly analyst poll. We could not find one for March, and finally found one for April – after a lot of looking. It would have been a shame if the table would have gone AWOL. This month, the race was extremely tight, and most analysts – at least the ones who had the guts to make forecasts for the D3 and not just for the SAAR – came very close to the actuals.

Top Ranked Analysts, April 2013 Analyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverallJessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com)11.0%16.0%11.0%15.21.88%2.37%4.24%John Sousanis (Ward’s)9.0%17.0%11.0%15.11.21%3.37%4.57%Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com)10.0%17.0%12.0%15.21.88%3.36%5.23%Joseph Spak (RBC)9.5%16.0%12.0%15.00.54%4.86%5.39%Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)10.0%17.0%9.3%15.21.88%4.07%5.94%Brian Johnson (Barclays)9.9%17.0%9.6%15.32.55%3.87%6.41%Christopher Ceraso (Credit Suisse)11.0%15.0%10.0%15.32.55%4.37%6.91%Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book)12.0%15.0%12.0%15.32.55%4.62%7.17%Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA)12.0%22.0%9.4%15.21.88%6.24%8.12%Patrick Archambault(Goldman)8.2%20.0%7.1%15.21.88%9.08%10.96%Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank)7.4%12.0%8.6%14.90.13%12.37%12.50%Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)NANANA15.11.21%300.00%301.21%Itay Michaeli (Citigroup)NANANA15.11.21%300.00%301.21%Ryan Brinkman (JPMorgan)NANANA15.21.88%300.00%301.88%George Magliano (IHS Automotive)NANANA15.21.88%300.00%301.88%Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive)NANANA15.21.88%300.00%301.88%Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)NANANA15.32.55%300.00%302.55%Average10.0%17.0%10.0%15.2Actual11.4%18.0%11.0%14.9

The winner was last year’s overall champion, Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds.com. She leads only a third of a percent in front of John Sousanis of Ward’s, who is separated by a hair from third placed Jesse Toprak.

Bertel Schmitt
Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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  • Marcelo de Vasconcellos Marcelo de Vasconcellos on May 02, 2013

    Oh, she always wins in photos. I think JC will stand for her in future and not that British dude.

  • 08Suzuki 08Suzuki on May 02, 2013

    Caldwell is the only woman in that group. Statistics suggest that women far outperform men in Wall Street financial planning (yet are typically paid up to 20% less).

  • Zerofoo No.My wife has worked from home for a decade and I have worked from home post-covid. My commute is a drive back and forth to the airport a few times a year. My every-day predictable commute has gone away and so has my need for a charge at home commuter car.During my most recent trip I rented a PHEV. Avis didn't bother to charge it, and my newly renovated hotel does not have chargers on the property. I'm not sure why rental fleet buyers buy plug-in vehicles.Charging infrastructure is a chicken and egg problem that will not be solved any time soon.
  • Analoggrotto Yeah black eyeliner was cool, when Davey Havok was still wearing it.
  • Dave M. My sweet spot is $40k (loaded) with 450 mile range.
  • Master Baiter Mass adoption of EVs will require:[list=1][*]400 miles of legitimate range at 80 MPH at 100°F with the AC on, or at -10°F with the cabin heated to 72°F. [/*][*]Wide availability of 500+ kW fast chargers that are working and available even on busy holidays, along interstates where people drive on road trips. [/*][*]Wide availability of level 2 chargers at apartments and on-street in urban settings where people park on the street. [/*][*]Comparable purchase price to ICE vehicle. [/*][/list=1]
  • Master Baiter Another bro-dozer soon to be terrorizing suburban streets near you...
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