Grade The Analysts: Caldwell Beats Toprak By A Hair

by Bertel Schmitt

Published: October 3rd, 2012

RankAnalyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverall1Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com)1.9%0.7%8.4%14.43.6%4.5%8.1%2Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com)2.5%1.3%8.1%14.62.3%6.0%8.3%3Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)3.7%2.2%6.1%14.52.9%10.1%13.0%4Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank)1.0%1.6%4.4%14.43.6%9.5%13.1%5John Sousanis (Ward’s)4.6%4.3%8.1%14.62.3%11.1%13.4%6Joseph Spak (RBC)4.0%4.9%8.0%14.52.9%11.2%14.1%7Patrick Archambault (Goldman)2.2%4.2%4.8%14.62.3%11.9%14.2%8Brian Johnson (Barclays)-1.5%-1.4%5.5%14.34.3%10.2%14.5%9Alec Gutierrez (Kelley)4.0%1.7%5.6%14.34.3%10.4%14.7%10Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA)3.3%2.0%4.4%14.43.6%11.2%14.8%11Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)5.0%4.0%6.0%14.52.9%13.3%16.2%12Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)NANANA15.00.4%300.0%300.4%13George Magliano (IHS)NANANA14.52.9%300.0%302.9%14Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive)NANANA14.52.9%300.0%302.9%15Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)NANANA14.52.9%300.0%302.9%16Ryan Brinkman (JPMorgan)NANANA14.43.6%300.0%303.6%Average2.8%2.3%6.3%14.50Actual1.5%-0.2%11.5%14.94

The public may have been surprised by the very strong showing of the market and the not so strong showing of GM and Ford when the September sales came in yesterday. Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds and Jesse Toprak of TrueCar weren’t surprised at all. They called the market with high precision. Separated by only 0.2 points, Caldwell made first, Toprak second, followed far behind by Peter Nesvold of Jefferies.Overall, the 16 analysts polled by Bloomberg were a little bit too optimistic when it came to GM and Ford, they shortsold Chrysler and undershot the very strong SAAR of 14.94 million (as per Autodata] . The few analysts who still only deliver a SAAR only stand no chance. Even coming as close to the actual SAAR as Adam Jones of Morgan Stanley does not make you a winner if there are no predictions for the D3.

#BertelSchmitt #GradeTheAnalysts #September2012

Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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2 comments

Stumpaster on Oct 03, 2012

Pretty amazing 1) how many times she won this little contest and 2) how typical it is that the bankers are out of touch with reality. I strongly suggest that from now on every time Jessica wins we should be graced with an updated photo of her in the article. Cute as much as smart, hope the banks hire her for a carload of money.

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- Lorenzo on Oct 03, 2012
  
  Bankers might be more in touch with automotive sales reality if they went back to financing cars. That's not possible with their new gold standard credit check requirements. We're back to the old saw, you can't get a bank loan unless you can prove to the bank that you don't need one.
  
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