Edmunds Sees September Up 8.8 Percent

by Bertel Schmitt

Published: September 27th, 2012

Sales Forecast, August 2012Sales VolumeSept’12Sept’11Aug’12YoYMoMGM211,064207,145240,5201.90%-12.20%Ford176,049174,862196,7490.70%-10.50%Toyota160,560121,451188,52032.20%-14.80%Chrysler138,030127,334148,4728.40%-7.00%Honda114,60689,532131,32128.00%-12.70%Nissan88,97792,96498,515-4.30%-9.70%Industry1,145,3441,053,1531,284,6358.80%-10.80%

A day after TrueCar and Kelley handed in their sales forecasts for September, Edmunds followed. Edmunds is more on the cautious side and projects that 1,145,344 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. this month for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 14.4 million light vehicles, and up 8.8 percent from a year before.

Market Share Forecast, August 2012Sept’12Sept’11Aug’12YoYMoMGM18.40%19.70%18.70%-1.20%-0.30%Ford15.40%16.60%15.30%-1.20%0.10%Toyota14.00%11.50%14.70%2.50%-0.70%Chrysler12.10%12.10%11.60%0.00%0.50%Honda10.00%8.50%10.20%1.50%-0.20%Nissan7.80%8.80%7.70%-1.10%0.10%

Chrysler is expected to have a big jump in U.S. market share in September, while GM’s share is expected to deteriorate. Edmunds predicts Toyota’s market share to drop 0.7 points from a month before.

#BertelSchmitt #Sales #SalesForecast #September2012

Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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7 comments

Mike978 on Sep 27, 2012

What happened to Nissan, they are projected to lose sales, not just market share. Looks, from historical data, that they are back to where they were in 2010. Also of note is that the top 3 (GM, Ford and Toyota/Lexus/Scion) are all down in market share compared to 2010 (so excluding last years natural disasters).

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Bd2 on Sep 27, 2012

Man, BS must really have it out for GM even more so than what is the norm on TTAC. "Chrysler is expected to have a big jump in U.S. market share in September, while GM’s share is expected to deteriorate." -- Why single out GM when Ford and Nissan are expected to see similar, if not worse results?

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- See 3 previous
- Jeoff on Sep 27, 2012
  
  In Bertel's defence, both Nissan's and Ford's market share numbers are up over the previous month's. GM's numbers are trending down, no matter how you slice them.
  
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- Jpcavanaugh on Sep 27, 2012
  
  Because GM has trailed growth in the market as a whole for pretty much the entire last 12-18 months, while Chrysler has generally outpaced the general market fairly significantly during that same time. Add in that Chrysler finally has a relatively competitive offering in the C segment for the first time since the Neon.
  
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- Mike978 on Sep 27, 2012
  
  @jeoff MoM is useless, YoY is the useful stat since that takes into account seasonal variation. The sentence in question was comparing YoY so Ford and Nissan also fall into that category but were not mentioned.
  
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- Bd2 on Sep 28, 2012
  
  @jeoff Making assessments simply based on MoM data is not a very reliable way of doing automotive analysis. Things like special monthly deals, a new model launch, winding down sales of an outgoing model etc. can cause significant swings month to month. For instance, GM's marketshare was at a low point in March with another dip in July, but for Aug., GM's marketshare increased close to its 2012 high which was in June (which incidentally was the low point for Toyota's marketshare for the year). In fact, for Aug., GM's marketshare is about where it was during the end of 2011, but Ford's marketshare for Aug. is down from where it was at the end of last year. It's better to look at yearly figures and even better to look at sales data over a no. of years since things like the tsunami in 2011 can cause abnormal fluctuations. And if a MoM marketshare decline is so impt. then why no mention of Toyota and Honda which also are projected to lose marketshare from the previous month? I think we all know the answer to that.
  
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Jpcavanaugh on Sep 27, 2012

Something is interesting to me in these numbers. Since the 1950s and into the 80s, Chrysler's market share was rarely above 18% and rarely below 12%. In 2013, GM is now down from the 40-50% it enjoyed in that era to what used to be the upper end of Chrysler's range. Chrysler, on the other hand, is still selling 12% of the market, or about what it was doing during its horrible period of 1961-62.

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