Everybody Now: August Hot, Detroit Not Cool
Predictions for August new car sales scale higher and higher as we approach release day this coming week. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters expect sales to rise as high as 20 percent from a year ago.
On average, the polled experts expect a Seasonally Adjusted Average Rate (SAAR) of 14.2 million vehicles in August, a forecast that is in line with expectations by TrueCar and Kelley.
The augurs of Reuters also agree with Kelley and TrueCar that Detroit’s numbers could be better. Says Reuters:
“Gains by the U.S. automakers will be more muted, with GM expected up 2 to 6 percent. Ford sales are expected to increase 7 to 10 percent, while Chrysler’s are forecast to rise 8 to 12 percent. The market share of all three U.S. automakers is expected to fall from August 2011, but increase from July.
The opinions of analysts polled by Bloomberg (see table) also average out to a SAAR of 14.2 million, their guesses on GM performance range from +0.7 percent by Peter Nesvold of Jefferies to 6.4 percent by a bullish Jessica Caldwell.
Analyst GMFord Chrysler SAARRod Lache (Deutsche Bank)1.0%3.4%16.0%14.0Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)0.7%9.7%8.9%14.3Patrick Archambault (Goldman)1.2%7.8%4.0%13.9Joseph Spak (RBC)2.4%8.0%9.0%14.3Brian Johnson (Barclays)5.5%7.0%8.2%14.2Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)3.9%8.7%6.1%14.3Ryan Brinkman (JPMorgan)NANANA14.0Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)NANANA14.2John Sousanis (Ward’s)1.6%11.0%16.0%14.4George Magliano (IHS)NANANA14.1Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive)NANANA14.5Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)NANANA14.3Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com)6.4%9.8%12.0%14.5Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com)3.9%9.5%9.6%14.2Alec Gutierrez (Kelley)3.4%9.6%9.6%14.4Average3.0%8.5%9.9%14.2
Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.
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I think Jessica Caldwell has consistently been the best of the bunch if memory serves me correct.
That's Neil Diamond? He looks more like Steven Tyler!
Frankly I'm just done with buying anything made by union labor, or at least trying to minimize it. That is heavily weighing my next new car purchase.
So you're looking for cars made in Mexico or Japanese/German cars built in America? UAW/CAW, European country unions, South Korean unions, silly Japanese company unions, your decision matrix will be fairly small.