Sales Oracles Think July Will Be Hot

by Bertel Schmitt

Published: July 26th, 2012

Countering talk of an impending end to the new car party, augurs predict that July will be seasonally hot. TrueCar says that this July could be the best since the heydays of 2007. TrueCar, which bases its projections on real time transactions from its associated dealers, thinks that July sales could reach 1.17 million, up 10.6 percent from July 2011. Edmunds also sees 1.17 million new cars in its crystal ball. Kelley Blue Book basically agrees with 1.16 million on its tip sheet.

TrueCar ForecastEdmunds ForecastKelley ForecastConsensus ForecastManufacturerJuly ’12YoYJuly ’12YoYJuly ’12YoYJuly ’12YoYChrysler131,66817.5%131,6689.2%129,90016.0%131,07914.2%Ford178,345-1.1%175,791-2.5%179,800-0.3%177,979-1.3%GM215,5200.3%214,315-0.3%218,1001.5%215,9780.5%Honda116,47044.7%123,66853.6%111,35038.3%117,16345.5%Hyundai/Kia111,1595.8%n/an/a106,7001.6%108,9303.7%Nissan95,18712.5%98,21616.1%93,95011.1%95,78413.2%Toyota159,17421.7%169,61729.7%168,20028.6%165,66426.7%Volkswagen49,83130.4%n/an/a46,40021.0%48,11625.7%Industry1,171,20110.6%1,166,66510.2%1,160,0009.5%1,165,95510.1%

TrueCar thinks the Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (“SAAR”) will be around 14.1 million new car sales, up from 12.2 million in July 2011. That’s the good news.

The bad news are that retail sales are expected to be up an anemic 3 percent only. Most of the growth is expected in Fleet sales which are thought to account for 21 percent of total industry sales in July 2012.

More not quite good news could be in stock for Ford and GM. The big July bonanza will pass them by, TrueCar expects. Says Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Market Intelligence for TrueCar.com.:

“The Japanese Big 3, as well as Chrysler, will all be posting double-digit gains while Ford and GM will essentially be flat. One look at the Toyota and Honda sales today will make you think as if nothing ever happened last year.”

Edmunds even has slight decreases in the boxes of Ford and GM. But then, fleet sales could change that.

#BertelSchmitt #July2012Sales #Sales

Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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11 of 42 comments

Mikey on Jul 26, 2012

@highdesertcat...Great choice, with the Grand Cherokee. The Jeep is the only true "smaller" SUV on the market today. @ jimmyy, or whatever your going by now. The only thing your beloved "Honda" did right,was not playing the truck game like Toyota did. Hows them "Tundra" sales doing these days?

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- 01 ZX3 on Jul 26, 2012
  
  Tundra sales have always been bad as have the sales of the lame, craptastic Ridgeline.
  
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- Highdesertcat on Jul 26, 2012
  
  mikey, I was never a fan of Chrysler products. Got my start on them rebuilding my dad's Mopar (Plymouth and Dodge) dragsters and 426 Hemis way back in the 60's when I was a kid. I owned a number of Jeep products, including the worst from AMC, but this new Grand Cherokee really cuts the cake. My wife is tickled pink with hers. It's luxurious and rides well. Dare I say it? It is as good as, if not better than, her 2008 Highlander. But I do remind her of the Moose lurking out there almost daily. A few weeks ago, before the TV Moose test was released, she told me that she went around a curve where US70 accesses the I-25 South and she got a wake up call when her GC became unstable. I reminded her the speed limit in that curve was 35 not 45. I'm sure she white-knuckled it that time. I'm equally sure she will now slow down for curves. I don't know what happened but I surmise that the Stabilitrac started activating the four calipers at the corners, and it must have felt really weird. I tried to duplicate it on US54 by rapidly switching lanes at 40mph with the stability control turned off, and that buggy felt as loose as a long-necked goose. All that rocking and rolling would make me seasick. Once you turn on the stability control everything is civilized again. So, yeah, Fiat needs to tweak the stability control to keep the thing from tipping.
  
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- NulloModo on Jul 27, 2012
  
  Toyota's problem trying to play the truck game is the same as Nissan's - they both released competent products, and then let them rot on the vine. The Tundra hasn't had a significant update since its '07 release, and the Titan hasn't had a significant update since it was introduced in '04. For 2011 - F-Series: 584,917 Combined Silverado/Sierra: 564,300 Dodge Ram: 244,763 Toyota Tundra: 82,908 Nissan Titan: 21,994 Toyota sold nearly 200,000 Tundras in '07. Corolla buyers apparently don't seem to care that the vehicle is extremely outdated, truck buyers, not so much.
  
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- Highdesertcat on Jul 27, 2012
  
  @NulloModo Nullo, you're probably right in your premise and assumption, but maybe Toyota and Nissan wanted to have a truck available for those individuals who chose not to buy a domestic. It happens. I know several people, some even working men who use their trucks for their work, who have chosen to buy a Tundra. Others bought a Titan, mostly older guys who wanted something unique. One of my neighbors traded TWO RAM trucks in on a 2010 Tundra. I sold both my '88 Silverado and 2006 F150 after buying my 2011 Tundra. Is it outdated when compared to the current F150? Yeah, maybe. But I wouldn't trade if off unless there was something better out there. I'm not into EcoBoost or V6s, so that's no sale there. But when I trade off my 2011 Tundra in 2016, I'll look around at what's out there. And if there is something better than my current Tundra, I'll buy it, regardless of brand or who makes it.
  
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- Mike978 on Jul 27, 2012
  
  @NulloModo HDC - I agree some people want a "foreign" truck, I was just struck by 1.3 million "US" trucks and only 100,000 "Japanese" trucks. 13:1 is some ratio. I am surprised Toyota hasn`t worked harder on the Tundra if it is true not much has changed since 2007 (though the Silverado hasn`t changed much either has it in that time). I recall Toyota setting the goal to sell, routinely, 200,000 Tundra's and fully utilize their new Texas facility. Looks like they failed in that. Should someone write an article complaining about them missing their sales targets repeatedly?
  
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- Spw on Jul 27, 2012
  
  @NulloModo Large trucks yes... Midsize is ruled by Toyota Tacoma.
  
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- Highdesertcat on Jul 27, 2012
  
  @NulloModo Mike978, there are probably several reasons why Tundras don't sell well except to their own fan boys. IMO, the biggest reason is that any Tundra is so damn expensive! I paid over $5K more for my 2011 5.7 than I could get a Silverado or an F150 for, similarly equipped, at that time. And my Tundra has hardly anything on it except for the SR5 package. But when it comes to the compact trucks, it is like spw stated, the Tacoma is the undisputed champion of the sales world in North America. And Toyota hasn't done much to either of their trucks to upgrade them or make them slicker. My guess would be that their philosophy is that they don't mess with a good thing as long as people keep on buying them. There are no threats, real or perceived, for the Tacoma. And the people who buy Tundra know what they want, and are willing to pay extra for the privilege of buying one. What other reasons can motivate a buyer when it comes to buying a Toyota truck? Maybe Toyota just wants to take a portion of the sales that would normally have gone to Ford, GM or Dodge. No matter how few sold, each Tundra or Titan sale is one less for the domestics. And as long as the current owners of those Tundras and Titans are happy campers, it is unlikely that they will leave the fold and migrate back to the domestic brands. I'm certainly not going back unless a domestic manufacturer can improve on what I own now. When it comes time to trade in 2016, I'll check them all out. But I won't buy an aluminum-bodied F150, for instance. I prefer steel and I don't care about the cost of gasoline or mpg. To me gasoline is a bargain at any price because it beats walking.
  
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- Alluster on Jul 27, 2012
  
  "I paid over $5K more for my 2011 5.7 than I could get a Silverado or an F150 for, similarly equipped, at that time. And my Tundra has hardly anything on it except for the SR5 package." You just described every Toyota buyer out there.
  
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- Highdesertcat on Jul 27, 2012
  
  alluster, that is true. And while each buyer has their own reason(s) for doing so, the bottom line is that they did it, still do it today and will continue to do it as long as Tundras are available. Every one of those sales of a Tundra (or a Titan) means one less sale for the domestic brands. Yeah, the numbers of Tundra and Titan sold are pitifully small, but over time they do add up. Had Tundra and Titan not been available, those same sales would have gone to the domestic manufacturers like they did before Tundra and Titan existed.
  
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Rday on Jul 27, 2012

Here is an interesting article from AutoMD which states that the vast majority of car owners are not planning on replacing their cars anytime too soon. Bodes well for parts companies but not the car manufacturers. http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-three-year-vehicle-purchase-cycle-is-dead-and-not-coming-back-even-if-economy-does-according-to-automdcom-survey-163391366.html

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