Grade The Analysts, May 2012: Exuberance Causes Big Fail
RankAnalyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverall1Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)13.0%14.0%36.0%14.33.8%9.0%12.8%2Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com)17.0%11.0%33.0%14.55.2%11.0%16.2%3Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book)11.0%9.4%40.0%14.23.0%13.6%16.6%4Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com)11.0%16.0%42.0%14.44.5%15.0%19.5%5Patrick Archambault (Goldman)15.0%10.0%38.0%14.44.5%15.0%19.5%6Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)13.0%12.0%44.0%14.44.5%17.0%21.5%7Brian Johnson (Barclays)16.0%15.0%42.0%14.44.5%19.0%23.5%8Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA)18.0%11.0%41.0%14.44.5%20.0%24.5%9John Sousanis (Ward’s)15.0%15.0%45.0%14.66.0%21.0%27.0%10Joseph Spak (RBC)16.0%10.0%NA14.44.5%108.0%112.5%11George Magliano (IHS Automotive)NANANA14.23.0%300.0%303.0%12Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive)NANANA14.33.8%300.0%303.8%13Itay Michaeli (Citigroup)NANANA14.44.5%300.0%304.5%14Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)NANANA14.44.5%300.0%304.5%Average15.0%12.0%40.0%14.4Actual11.0%13.0%30.0%13.8
The analysts polled by Bloomberg should wear a bullet-proof vest and avoid dark alleys for a while. To a woman and a man, the analysts were too exuberant, guessing way too high for May. Despite a respectable 13 percent gain, the market came in below the expectations created by analyst predictions, which sent car stocks broadly lower yesterday.
Today, the wayward soothsayers receive their just punishment.
The winner of May’s Grade The Analysts is Chris Ceraso of Credit Suisse. In the preceding months , Chris had ranked at the bottom of the field of contestants who had a fair chance of winning. Only the ones who deliver a prediction for the SAAR AND the Detroit 3 can win this game.
In May, Chris performed with Swiss consistency, missing the mark by nearly 13 percent. He won, because the other contestants finished much worse.
In second place is Jesse Toprak of TrueCar, defending the honor of analysts who are in possession of strategically important real-time transaction data. Nevertheless, Jesse aimed too high. In place three is Alec Gutierrez of Kelley Blue Book, who had set off a round of misguided enthusiasm by predicting a week ago that the market could be up by 30 percent .
Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.
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Oh sweet Jessica, you fell to 4th place.