TrueCar Projects 14 Million New Car Market, Confirms February Estimates
After we wrote about the February forecast of Edmunds, TrueCar asked whether we had seen their forecast. We had to admit that we had overlooked it, shame on TTAC.
The projections by TrueCar.com are similar to those of Edmunds and Kelley.
TrueCar expects new light vehicle sales in the U.S. to reach 1,088,321 units in February, up 9.6 percent from February 2011. That forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 14.3 million new car sales, up from 13.3 million in February 2011. Says Jesse Toprak, VP of Industry Trends and Insights at TrueCar.com:
“The signs for 2012 point to a great period of recovery for automakers as the industry looks at continued growth through the year. We are upgrading our 2012 forecast to 14.0 million units based on improving consumer demand, better credit availability, and dozens of compelling new products due to arrive at the dealerships this year. The correlation between the stock market and new vehicle sales proved to be extremely strong once again with both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and new vehicle SAAR reaching their highest levels since May 2008 in February.“
TrueCar Sales Projections February 2012
Sales Volume12-Feb11-FebYOYGM194,435207,066-6.1%Ford178,270156,24014.1%Toyota149,466141,8085.4%Chrysler121,19595,13027.4%Honda102,66898,0594.7%Nissan96,09692,4004.0%Hyundai-Kia89,50576,36917.2%Volkswagen40,02129,21237.0%Industry1,088,321992,9949.6%TrueCar sees similar trends as Kelley and Edmunds: Chrysler up strong, Ford up solidly, the Japanese back at pre-tsunami levels. GM down hard in an up market.
TrueCar Market Share Projections February 2012
Market Share12-Feb11-FebYOYGM17.9%20.8%-2.9%Ford16.4%15.7%0.7%Toyota13.7%14.3%-0.6%Chrysler11.1%9.6%1.5%Honda9.4%9.9%-0.5%Nissan8.8%9.3%-0.5%Hyundai-Kia8.2%7.7%0.5%Volkswagen3.7%2.9%0.8%TrueCar’s market share projections are similar to those of Edmunds and Kelley: GM loses nearly 3 percent, Chrysler gains 1.5 percent.
Consensus Sales Projections February 2012
Sales Volume12-Feb11-FebYOYGM195,392207,041-5.6%Ford176,027156,23712.7%Toyota148,749141,8334.9%Chrysler122,06295,11128.3%Honda101,95098,0594.0%Nissan95,68992,3803.6%Hyundai-Kia88,75376,35416.2%Volkswagen40,01129,26436.7%Industry1,079,793993,1798.7%Averaging the projections of Kelley, Edmunds and TrueCar yields this picture. Note that only Kelley and Edmunds provided data for Volkswagen and Hyundai/Kia .
Consensus Market Share Projections February 2012
Market Share12-Feb11-FebYOYGM18.1%20.8%-2.7%Ford16.3%15.7%0.6%Toyota13.8%14.3%-0.5%Chrysler11.3%9.6%1.7%Honda9.4%9.9%-0.5%Nissan8.8%9.3%-0.5%Hyundai-Kia8.3%7.7%0.6%Volkswagen3.8%3.0%0.8%And here the averages of projected market shares. This concludes our crystal ball gazing. Real data on March 1.
Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.
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Didn't Detroit get in to trouble a few years ago for manufacturing for 12 million units a year?
GM is done, stick a fork in them. yes they have cash (they should have after raping and pillaging), but they still lack a basic understanding of retail automotive. this, more than any other single thing, is the root cause of decades in decline at GM. they had it so good for so long that the culture became complacent, pompous, self serving, and corrupt. wake up people and face the realization that in a relatively short time there will no longer be a General Motors.