By on February 26, 2012

After we wrote about the February forecast of Edmunds, TrueCar asked whether we had seen their forecast. We had to admit that we had overlooked it, shame on TTAC.

The projections by TrueCar.com are similar to those of Edmunds and Kelley.

TrueCar expects new light vehicle sales in the U.S. to reach 1,088,321 units in February, up 9.6 percent from February 2011.  That forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 14.3 million new car sales, up from 13.3 million in February 2011. Says Jesse Toprak, VP of Industry Trends and Insights at TrueCar.com:

“The signs for 2012 point to a great period of recovery for automakers as the industry looks at continued growth through the year. We are upgrading our 2012 forecast to 14.0 million units based on improving consumer demand, better credit availability, and dozens of compelling new products due to arrive at the dealerships this year. The correlation between the stock market and new vehicle sales proved to be extremely strong once again with both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and new vehicle SAAR reaching their highest levels since May 2008 in February.“

TrueCar Sales Projections February 2012

Sales Volume 12-Feb 11-Feb YOY
GM 194,435 207,066 -6.1%
Ford 178,270 156,240 14.1%
Toyota 149,466 141,808 5.4%
Chrysler 121,195 95,130 27.4%
Honda 102,668 98,059 4.7%
Nissan 96,096 92,400 4.0%
Hyundai-Kia 89,505 76,369 17.2%
Volkswagen 40,021 29,212 37.0%
Industry 1,088,321 992,994 9.6%

TrueCar sees similar trends as Kelley and Edmunds:  Chrysler up strong, Ford up solidly, the Japanese back at pre-tsunami levels. GM down hard in an up market.

TrueCar Market Share Projections February 2012

Market Share 12-Feb 11-Feb YOY
GM 17.9% 20.8% -2.9%
Ford 16.4% 15.7% 0.7%
Toyota 13.7% 14.3% -0.6%
Chrysler 11.1% 9.6% 1.5%
Honda 9.4% 9.9% -0.5%
Nissan 8.8% 9.3% -0.5%
Hyundai-Kia 8.2% 7.7% 0.5%
Volkswagen 3.7% 2.9% 0.8%

TrueCar’s market share projections are similar to those of Edmunds and Kelley: GM loses nearly 3 percent, Chrysler gains 1.5 percent.

Consensus Sales Projections February 2012

Sales Volume 12-Feb 11-Feb YOY
GM 195,392 207,041 -5.6%
Ford 176,027 156,237 12.7%
Toyota 148,749 141,833 4.9%
Chrysler 122,062 95,111 28.3%
Honda 101,950 98,059 4.0%
Nissan 95,689 92,380 3.6%
Hyundai-Kia 88,753 76,354 16.2%
Volkswagen 40,011 29,264 36.7%
Industry 1,079,793 993,179 8.7%

Averaging the projections of Kelley, Edmunds and TrueCar yields this picture. Note that only Kelley and Edmunds provided data for Volkswagen and Hyundai/Kia .

Consensus Market Share Projections February 2012

Market Share 12-Feb 11-Feb YOY
GM 18.1% 20.8% -2.7%
Ford 16.3% 15.7% 0.6%
Toyota 13.8% 14.3% -0.5%
Chrysler 11.3% 9.6% 1.7%
Honda 9.4% 9.9% -0.5%
Nissan 8.8% 9.3% -0.5%
Hyundai-Kia 8.3% 7.7% 0.6%
Volkswagen 3.8% 3.0% 0.8%

And here the averages of projected market shares. This concludes our crystal ball gazing. Real data on March 1.

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