Our Daily Saab: Administrator Ready To Pull The Plug
The accounts are empty, GM keeps saying no, the reconstruction administrator is about to pull the plug on Saab. Unfazed, The Church of The True Saab goes from clumsy spinning to simply telling lies. First, they turned “a bank in China” into “the Bank of China.” As Chinacartimes quips, this “could be anything from the smallest local city bank to a national level bank.”
Now, Saabsunited spins another yarn to keep the faithful from losing faith and face:
“Pang Da says that they are not out of the deal, on the contrary, they continue talks.”
Not true. Pang Da is not part of any deals and is in no talks. The alleged enthusiast blog, which in reality is an amateurishly run mouthpiece of Victor Muller and Vladimir Antonov, usually prides itself on inside knowledge (which is never released). This time, the information comes from Reuters.
According to this report, Pang Da is far from being part of the deal.
“In principle, we would not oppose any plan that would be good for Saab’s restructuring and help it out of the current plight.”
This in turn is pulled from a milquetoast statement Pang Da had posted on the Shanghai stock exchange late on Monday. Our sources in China say that Pang Da is out of the deal, but would not mind to be back in. We are told that the team that had led the negotiations between Pang Da and Saab has been reassigned to other jobs, ostensibly as part of a re-org at Pang Da. We are also told that a new team is being assembled. That’s it.
All the rah-rah about white knights du jour may keep the hopes up, but it does not help to keep the lights on at Saab. They are flickering.
- The money that is supposedly on the way from China has not arrived.
- GM, which needs to approve any deals involving its technology, has not changed its position, it hasn’t even seen a new deal, Sveriges Radio says. GM spokesman James Cain told the station: “As of today, there is no change. We haven’t changed our position on the matter.”
- Dagens Industri is not surprised. A source predicted that GM would turn down the deal, because it is just a diversion.
- Reconstruction administrator Guy Lofalk is unimpressed by any last minute deals and is ready to pull the plug. Lofalk told Dagens Industri: “We are at the end of the road. We would be happy if there would be other options. There just isn’t any money left.”
Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.
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The new plan is this; SWAN borrow 600 million euros from Youngman & an unamed Chinese bank now. In two years time, once the GM IP deal runs out, they get the entire Moosehouse. Sounds great doesn't it? Just a few small problems with that. 1.) 600 million euros won't pay for the development of one new model let alone the development of three which is what Saab will need once GM take their toys away. 2.) If there is any GM IP left in the PhoeniX platform you can't use that either. 3.) And actually that 600 million euros isn't really 600 million euros because has to pay off both the EIB & GM to get total ownership.... oh and the 40 million needed to get the factories back from Hemfosa Fastigheter... oh and 25 million euros loan from Gemini...oh and the 10 million euros needed to buy out GEM Global Yield Fund....oh and any money that PangDa has paid in.....oh and the loans for the wages that the government have paid since the company has been in Re-Organisation.....oh and all the creditors you currently owe money to... and finally the 74 million euros that might be required to be paid back to the Lithuian and Latvian banks as it was lent to Muller by Antonov and is pending an investigation to find out if its ill-gotten gains. 3.) Then there is the worldwide advertising budget that is going to be needed to re-launch the brand and get people to buy cars that they didn't want 12 months ago and which they know should be obsolete two years after they have bought them. And don't forget these cars that no one has wanted to buy will be your only source of income for the next two years because the 9-4X won't be coming now either. 4.) Then there is restarting the dealer network, which in the UK at least is on its last legs with two main dealers closing this week and Saab GB in administration. So no worries then. They'll be up and challenging the VAG group by this time next year.
"But there is also a chance (as slim as it may be) that Saab pulls through. Slim I know, but a chance none the less. Your optimism is the kind we want around when 3 of 4 engines have been shot off the bomber, the 4th is on fire and there's a bomb stuck in the bomb-bay door. Pointless and mis-guided optimism, but cheering.