August Car Sales Expected Flat Again - But Which Analyst Is Tops?

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

Analyst GMFord Chrysler SAARHimanshu Patel (JPMorgan)NANA NA12.1Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) NANA NA12.2Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)20%18%12%12.1Brian Johnson (Barclays)15%14%15%12.1Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)19%16%NA12.3Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs)11%14%10%12.0Itay Michaeli (Citigroup)NANA NA11.9Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)NANA NA11.9George Magliano (IHS Automotive) NANA NA12.2Jeff Schuster (J.D. Power)NANA NA11.9Jessica Caldwell ( Toprak ( Baum (Baum & Associates) NANA NA12.2Seth Weber (RBC)15%14%13%12.1Average17%15%16%12.1

After a tepid July, analysts predict a likewise unenthused August when it comes to new car sales in the U.S. The consensus of Bloomberg’s panel of 14 analysts is a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 12.1 million.

Asked for a reason, some blame the weather: Irene is the usual suspect. The real reasons are worries about the economy, financial markets, housing markets and jobs. Unless these are dispelled, people will keep what they have in the garage, and there is plenty.

TTAC will do its “Grade the analysts” race for the crystal ball of the month again. Maybe it was the threat of grades that narrows the range of projections: The lowest expected SAAR is 11.9, the highest is 12.3 – the latter estimate is by last month’s champion Jessica Caldwell. If she repeats he good performance, then the market will perform a bit better than estimated.

This time, we will also award points for those who are closest in the guesses of how Ford, GM and Chrysler performed. By examining the list, you will see some which will get demerits – no guts, no glory.

Bertel Schmitt
Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href=""> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href=""> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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  • Alluster Alluster on Sep 01, 2011

    Gm numbers are out. Sales are up 18% to 218,479. Retail sales are up 22%.

  • Alluster Alluster on Sep 01, 2011

    For Aug 2011: Manufacturer - ATP - Incentives - Incentive/ATP % GM - $33,371 - $3,207 - 9.6% Toyota - $25,691 - $2,405 - 9.4% Toyota has the industry's lowest ATP after Hyundai/Kia. GM reduced incentives 8% and sales are up 18%. Toyota increased incentives 18% and sales are expected to be down 11%

    • Mike978 Mike978 on Sep 01, 2011

      Thanks for the great information. Incentive/ATP is much more meaningful than just the absolute amount of incentive since it depends on the average price. Puts pay (at least temporarily) to those who say GM (and other domestics) are just incentive queens.

  • Zackman Zackman on Sep 01, 2011

    You know, when most of the manufacturing jobs for consumer goods have gone to China and are never coming back, the crushing debt of the worlds' economies, decent-paying jobs for only a few and service jobs, of which you need three of to make it, add to that high unemployment and untold numbers of foreclosed homes, what do you expect? Who in the world has any money to buy a new car? Used cars have become a big rip-off, too. Even though I'm working and (so far) have a decent job in spite of a 100-mile daily commute, I'm not buying anything except to repair or replace what I have when I absolutely have to.

    • Eldard Eldard on Sep 01, 2011

      Yay for American lament of pots and pans manufacturing being shifted overseas!

  • Brantta Brantta on Sep 01, 2011

    GM - up 18%, retail up 22% Ford - up 11%, retail up NA Chrysler - up 31%, retail up 42%