By on September 1, 2011
Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR
Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan) NA NA  NA 12.1
Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank)  NA NA  NA 12.2
Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) 20% 18% 12% 12.1
Brian Johnson (Barclays) 15% 14% 15% 12.1
Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) 19% 16% NA 12.3
Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs) 11% 14% 10% 12.0
Itay Michaeli (Citigroup) NA NA  NA 11.9
Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley) NA NA  NA 11.9
George Magliano (IHS Automotive)  NA NA  NA 12.2
Jeff Schuster (J.D. Power) NA NA  NA 11.9
Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) 20% 14% 21% 12.3
Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) 20% 12% 22% 12.2
Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)  NA NA  NA 12.2
Seth Weber (RBC) 15% 14% 13% 12.1
Average 17% 15% 16% 12.1

 

After a tepid July, analysts predict a likewise unenthused August when it comes to new car sales in the U.S.  The consensus of Bloomberg’s panel of 14 analysts is a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 12.1 million.

Asked for a reason, some blame the weather: Irene is the usual suspect. The real reasons are worries about the economy, financial markets, housing markets and jobs. Unless these are dispelled, people will keep what they have in the garage, and there is plenty.

TTAC will do its “Grade the analysts” race for the crystal ball of the month again. Maybe it was the threat of grades that narrows the range of projections: The lowest expected SAAR is 11.9, the highest is 12.3 – the latter estimate is by last month’s champion Jessica Caldwell. If she repeats he good performance, then the market will perform a bit better than estimated.

This time, we will also award points for those who are closest in the guesses of how Ford, GM and Chrysler performed. By examining the list, you will see some which will get demerits – no guts, no glory.

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7 Comments on “August Car Sales Expected Flat Again – But Which Analyst Is Tops?...”


  • avatar
    mike978

    Bertel is right about the economic issues which are adversely affecting car sales but I wouldn`t just dismiss Irene. 20% of the countries population was affected (seriously down to nuisance) and I live in NC and buying a new car was not the top of my priorities that weekend. So it will have reduced sales a little – not to distract from the large negative picture.

    Did the analysts make any predictions for the other large car companies (Nissan, Toyota, Honda, VW etc)?

  • avatar
    alluster83

    Gm numbers are out. Sales are up 18% to 218,479. Retail sales are up 22%.

  • avatar
    alluster83

    For Aug 2011:

    Manufacturer – ATP – Incentives – Incentive/ATP %
    GM – $33,371 – $3,207 – 9.6%
    Toyota – $25,691 – $2,405 – 9.4%

    Toyota has the industry’s lowest ATP after Hyundai/Kia. GM reduced incentives 8% and sales are up 18%. Toyota increased incentives 18% and sales are expected to be down 11%

    http://blog.truecar.com/2011/09/01/transaction-prices-drop-off-peak-but-stay-high-even-as-incentives-increase-according-to-truecar-com/

    • 0 avatar
      mike978

      Thanks for the great information. Incentive/ATP is much more meaningful than just the absolute amount of incentive since it depends on the average price. Puts pay (at least temporarily) to those who say GM (and other domestics) are just incentive queens.

  • avatar
    Zackman

    You know, when most of the manufacturing jobs for consumer goods have gone to China and are never coming back, the crushing debt of the worlds’ economies, decent-paying jobs for only a few and service jobs, of which you need three of to make it, add to that high unemployment and untold numbers of foreclosed homes, what do you expect? Who in the world has any money to buy a new car? Used cars have become a big rip-off, too.

    Even though I’m working and (so far) have a decent job in spite of a 100-mile daily commute, I’m not buying anything except to repair or replace what I have when I absolutely have to.

  • avatar
    Brantta

    GM – up 18%, retail up 22%
    Ford – up 11%, retail up NA
    Chrysler – up 31%, retail up 42%

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